Closing Kentucky vs Tennessee Odds, Score Predictions & Betting Splits (Sweet 16)

• The final Kentucky vs Tennessee odds favor the Volunteers by a handful of points
• The Vols are favored despite losing twice to UK in the regular season
• See the closing Kentucky vs Tennessee odds plus score predictions and public-betting splits for Friday’s Sweet 16 game

The #2 Tennessee Volunteers (29-7, 19-17 ATS) will get a third crack at the #3 Kentucky Wildcats (24-11, 18-17 ATS) when the SEC foes meet in the Midwest Region Sweet 16 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis at 7:39 pm ET on Friday, March 28. Kentucky took both regular-season meetings between the teams – home and away – but the Vols are sizable favorites to take the final leg of the trilogy tonight. TBS/truTV will have the broadcast.

Kentucky vs Tennessee Odds

The Vols opened as 4.5-point betting favorites last Sunday and -218 chalk on the moneyline. A few hours from tip-off, the spread remains at Tennessee -4.5 but the moneyline has moved in UK’s direction in the latest college basketball odds. The Vols are now -195 moneyline favorites while Kentucky’s odds to advance have improved from +180 to +162, which carries a 38.17% implied win probability.

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The Kentucky vs Tennessee game total is the only one of the eight Sweet 16 games that has gone down from the opening line. The UK vs UT over/under was originally 145.5 but now sits a point lower at 144.5. Overs were 4-0 during Thursday’s quartet of Sweet 16 games, with two teams (Alabama and Duke) reaching triple-digits. Arkansas vs Texas Tech stayed under its 148.5-point total in regulation (72-72) but flew over in the OT period.

It’s not terribly surprising that the spread hasn’t shifted over the last four days, given that the average score projection from KenPom, Haslam, and Torvik is a 4.1 Tennessee’ victory.

Kentucky vs Tennessee Projected Score

KenPom has the Vols covering 4.5 in a 76-71 victory, while Haslam – which uses decimals instead of rounding up – has the margin at 4.3 points. Torvik has the Volunteers winning by just three (74-71).

All three analytics sites have the game going over the latest total of 144.5, however.

The first matchup between Kentucky and Tennessee ended in a 78-73 road win (151 total points) for the Wildcats on Jan. 28. Two weeks later, UK took the rematch 75-64 (139 total points) in Lexington.

Both teams enter the Sweet 16 winners of five of their last six. Kentucky took down #13 Troy (76-57) in the first round as 11.5-point favorites. Mark Pope’s Wildcats followed that up with an impressive 84-75 win over #6 Illinois as 2.5-point underdogs. UK has stayed under in three straight games dating back to their 99-70 blowout loss to Alabama in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals.

Tennessee breezed past #14 Wofford, 77-62 as 18.5-point favorites, in the first round before a 67-58 win over #7 UCLA as 5.5-point chalk in the second round. While that game stayed under its 131.5-point total, UT has gone over in five of its last seven.

UK vs UT Public Betting Splits

Friday’s March Madness public betting splits include some big numbers for the UK vs Tennessee matchup. The public’s favorite bet is the over, which has attracted 91% of O/U wagers and 86% of O/U handle. The public also likes the Volunteers to advance as -195 ML favorites, putting 65% of moneyline tickets and 56% of ML handle on UT.

But against the spread, the public leans to the Wildcats to cover the 4.5-point spread, with 60% of ATS wagers and 59% of ATS handle on Kentucky to cover.

Tennessee is currently the sixth-favorite in the odds to win March Madness at +2000. The Wildcats head into the Sweet 16 as +8000 longshots. Only three of the 12 remaining teams have longer odds: Ole Miss (+10000) and Purdue (+12500).