Florida vs Auburn Predictions, Picks & Betting Lines
By Chris Amberley in College Basketball
Published:
- The Florida Gators are 2.5-point favorites over the Auburn Tigers in the Final Four
- Florida beat Auburn 90-81 in their lone meeting this season
- See my Florida vs Auburn predictions and picks for the Final Four, plus betting lines below
It’s Final Four weekend in San Antonio, with all four number 1 seeds still standing. Up first on Saturday night is Florida (34-4) vs Auburn (32-5) in a clash of SEC titans. Oddsmakers are projecting a tight contest in the college basketball odds, siding with the Gators as small chalk. Tip-off is scheduled for 6:09pm ET at the Alamodome, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.
Florida vs Auburn Predictions
My prediction for the March Madness bracket hasn’t wavered since the tournament started. I plugged in Florida as my National Champion, and I’m still confident they’re on a collision course with Duke on the other side.
We’ve seen the Gators and Tigers square off already this season, with Florida coming out on top. That result isn’t carrying too much weight into my prediction for this matchup, as I’m focusing on more the Gators resiliency and recent form.
Let’s start with the ladder. Florida has lost once since February 1st. They steamrolled the competition in the SEC Tournament, and boast the nation’s top offense over the last two months. They’re shooting 58% from inside the arc, and 38% from downtown. Walter Clayton Jr. has been unstoppable, posting 22+ points in six of his last seven games.
The Senior is behind only Cooper Flagg in the Tournament MVP odds. He carried the Gators to victory in the Elite Eight, erasing a 10-point deficit with three minutes to go. Florida also rallied late to knock off UConn in the second round, and withstood an injury to big man Alex Condon in the Sweet 16. They truly do have Alligator blood, you can’t get rid of them.
The Gators have beaten five of KenPom’s top-20 teams by 14+ points in the last month alone. They’re also exceptional on defense, as we’ll discuss later, and are equipped to limit Johni Broome and the Tigers.
Florida vs Auburn Ratings
Speaking of Broome, no team can completely shut him down. The big man is a double-double machine, averaging 17 points and 13 rebounds during March Madness. The Tigers opened the tournament with three convincing wins, before scratching and clawing their way past Michigan State.
Auburn was the leader in the March Madness Championship odds for the bulk of the season. They lost once between December and the start of March, but then skidded down the stretch. They dropped three of their final four games before the NCAA Tournament, failing to reach the SEC Tournament Final.
They don’t have a glaring weakness, but if there’s a concern, it’s their lack of 3-point shooting prowess. Auburn is shooting only 31% from three during March Madness. That’s a huge red flag, especially considering the rest of the three remaining contenders are at or around 40% from downtown.
A lack of threes puts more pressure on Broome inside. Sure, he’s capable of taking over a game, but there’s no shortage of big bodies for Florida to throw at him.
Florida vs Auburn Picks
- Florida Gators -2.5 (-112) at DraftKings
The Gators roster has four defenders 6’9″ or taller to combat Broome’s length. Condon will be counted on the most, and I’m confident he’ll be up to the challenge. The 6’11” sophomore is a versatile defender, with a relentless motor. A former Aussie Rules Footballer, he doesn’t shy away from contact, and fights for every square inch of the court.
The numbers give Florida the advantage on offense. I believe their length and versatility on defense, coupled with the Tigers long range shooting, make them the obvious choice in this matchup. I’ll lay 2.5 points as my favorite pick, something I know the trends will support.
Florida vs Auburn Betting Lines
The best price we can find on Florida -2.5 is -112 at DraftKings. The Gators are -146 on the moneyline, with Auburn coming back as +122 underdogs. The total sits at 159.5, down a point from when opening odds were released.
Per the college basketball public betting trends, Florida is 13-4 ATS over its last 17 games. If they win and cover their last two games, they’d finish the season with a 72.5% cover rate. That would be the best ATS mark in the last 30 years of any National Champion.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
