Tennessee vs Mississippi State Odds and Predictions (Jan. 17)

• No. 9 Tennessee and Mississippi State meet for the second time this season Tuesday, January 17.
• Tennessee is a 6.5-point road favorite against the Bulldogs in Starkville.
• Read below for Tennessee vs Mississippi State odds, analysis and prediction.

No. 9 Tennessee (14-3, 4-1 SEC) is a 6.5-point road favorite over Mississippi State in an SEC game at 7 pm ET Tuesday at Humphrey Coliseum. The Volunteers enter the rematch after a 63-56 home loss to rival Kentucky on Saturday.

Mississippi State (12-4, 1-3 SEC) has lost two in a row and five of six, its only victory in that stretch a 10-point win-and-cover against arch-rival Ole Miss. The Bulldogs return home after losing at Georgia and Auburn.

Tennessee vs Mississippi State Odds

Odds from FanDuel on Jan. 16. Claim the current FanDuel promos.

Tennessee is a 6.5-point road favorite at Mississippi State in a series the Volunteers have dominated in recent years. Tennessee is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in the series since 2019, including win-and-covers in the SEC tournament quarterfinals in 2019 and 2022.  Over a longer haul, Tennessee is 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS in the last 17. The Volunteers won the first meeting this 87-53 on Jan. 3 as a 10-point favorite

Tennessee is 9-8 ATS this season, going 6-2 SU and 3-5 ATS in its last eight. Mississippi State is 7-9-1 ATS, 4-5 at home. Both teams skew toward the under — the total has been under in 11 of 17 Tennessee games and in 13 of the Bulldogs’ 17.

Tennessee Looks to Bounce Back

The No. 9 Volunteers are looking to avoid their first two-game losing streak of the season after being dominated on the boards by Kentucky, which had a whopping 39-21 rebound advantage (10 on the offensive glass) while winning as a 12-point underdog Saturday. Tennessee, which entered the game second in Division I with a plus-9.9 rebound margin, is 14-0 when it has outrebounded its opponents and 0-3 when it is on the other side. The Vols’ other losses are to No. 11 Arizona and Colorado.

Zakai Ziegler is intimidated so badly 😭 pic.twitter.com/VsY27GedQz

— Mark Pope burner (@markpopeukcoach) January 14, 2023

The Vols are not a great shooting team, relying on takeaways for easy baskets, and Kentucky concentrated on taking the perimeter away from guards Santiago Vescovi (12.9 points, 40 three-pointers) and Zakai Zeigler (11.1 points, 24 threes). The strategy was effective. Tennessee shot 40.4 percent from the floor and was 3 of 21 from distance, equalling a season low in makes.

Zeigler, who missed practice the two days before the game for undisclosed reasons, missed two uncontested layups and was 3 of 12 from the field. Vescovi was 4 of 13. Center 7′ Uros Plavsic had 19 points, but his scoring was not enough to compensate for the Vols’ lack of outside production.

Mississippi State Can’t Shoot Straight

The Bulldogs, who were ranked as high as No. 15 in the AP Top 25 after an 11-0 start, have been dragged down by poor shooting from every spot on the floor. The Bulldogs made only 37.5 percent of their field goal attempts and missed all 18 three-point attempts in a 69-63 loss at No. 16 Auburn on Saturday. They shot 29.5 percent from the floor and made only 7 of 22 free throw attempts in a 58-50 loss at Georgia the game before that. Mississippi State has shot under 40 percent from the field in the last seven games, including 39.6 in the loss at Tennessee two weeks ago.

SEC SPG leaders entering today:

D'Moi Hodge (@MizzouHoops): 2.8
Shakeel Moore (@HailStateMBK): 2.5
Zakai Zeigler (@Vol_Hoops): 2.3
Santiago Vescovi (@Vol_Hoops): 2.2
Myles Burns (@OleMissMBB): 2.2
Nick Honor (@MizzouHoops): 2.2

— College Basketball Reference (@collegebb_ref) January 14, 2023

Senior forward 6’10 Tolu Smith (14.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 58.8 percent shooting) had a 20/10 double-double against Auburn, only the second time in the lsats six games he scored in double figures as defenses pack the paint. No other Bulldog is scoring in double figures in new coach Chris Jans’ defense-first system. The Bulldogs are limiting opponents to 38.5 percent shooting, 14th in Division I, but have not taken advantage on the other end by shooting 40.9 percent from the floor and 61.1 percent from the foul line.

Tennessee vs Mississippi State Prediction

Tennessee handled the Bulldogs very easily in the first meeting and enter the rematch smarting from their loss to Kentucky. The Volunteers followed their previous two losses with a 31-point win over Florida Gulf Coast and a 42-point win over Austin Peay (the Fly is open let’s go Peay), and there is no reason to believe that will not happen again against a Bulldog team that has a hard time sustaining offense. Lay the points here.

• Pick: Tennessee -6.5 (-120)
• Season CBK: 20-11 ATS