College Football Betting – Week 1 Odds & Picks

It’s been a long several months for NCAA football fans, but the wait is almost over as the 2015-16 season is set to kickoff on Thursday, September 3, with most teams seeing their first action on the Saturday (September 5).

Week 1 sees some big inter-conference games taking place, some of which will have early National Championship implications. Arguably the biggest game of the week pits Wisconsin against perennial power Alabama in Arlington but, before that, we’ll get to see the new-look Michigan Wolverines – complete with Jim Harbaugh patrolling the sideline – face a stiff test from the Utah Utes on Thursday evening in Salt Lake.

Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks for the biggest games of Week 1.

Thursday, September 3

Michigan Wolverines at Utah Utes (-6)

After going 7-6 in 2013 and regressing to 5-7 in 2014, Michigan brought in Jim Harbaugh to give the football program a complete makeover. The solid recruiting skills of the former Niners bench-boss won’t pay full dividends in his first season, but his rah-rah style should have the team – which returns 24 of 29 players on defense – fired up and ready to go for Week 1. The biggest issue for Harbaugh will be finding a way to consistently put points on the board; the Wolverines averaged just 20.9 PPG (112th in the nation) in 2014.

Utah went a solid 9-4 last year and picked up a big win over then-No. 8 UCLA. But they had their struggles at home, going just 3-3 in Salt Lake. Like the Wolverines, the 2014 Utes struggled to score at times. They averaged over 30 PPG thanks to blowouts over Idaho State and Fresno State early in the year, but they were held to 24 or fewer on four occasions, including three of their four losses.

In the trends, the Utes are 3-0 ATS against the Wolverines since 2002 – including a 26-10 in Ann Arbour last season. But all those ATS wins came as underdogs; this time around, the Utes will need to win by a touchdown to cover. While Harbaugh isn’t a miracle worker, I his squad will want to perform well for the new coach in his first game at his alma mater. Take Michigan and the points in what should be a great game.

Pick: Michigan +6.

Friday, September 5

Washington Huskies at Boise State Broncos (-10.5)

Since 2007, Washington and Boise State have met three times and the Huskies have covered each time (including two home wins and narrow road loss in 2012).

The Broncos have nine starters returning on offense coming back, but the key pieces from last year’s Fiesta Bowl-winning squad – quarterback Grant Hedrick and running back Jay Ajayi – are gone. Sophomore Ryan Finley is the favorite to be under center, but the key will be in their running game, where they plan is to go running-back-by-committee with sophomore Jeremy McNichols seeing the most carries.

Washington, meanwhile, has to replace a ton of talent on defense, which could make for a rough start to the season. With Boise State’s O-line expected to be strong, it could be a long day for the Huskies’ defensive front-seven, in particular. The young Huskies should eventually make strides this year, but this Week 1 trip to Idaho and its blue turf field will be too much to handle.

Pick: Boise State -10.5.

Saturday, September 5

Texas Longhorns at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-10)

After a disappointing 2014 where his program went 6-7 overall, Texas head coach Charlie Strong is under a ton of pressure in just his second season in Austin . Nobody is expecting Strong and the Longhorns to battle for the Big 12 title, but most critics expect a real improvement in 2015.

The Longhorns will give junior QB Tyrone Swoopes another shot as the starter. Swoopes showed some promise last year, throwing for 2,409 yards, 13 TDs, and 11 interceptions, but he will be on short leash if he doesn’t show a good command of the offense early in the year.

For the Irish, sophomore QB Malik Zaire will be under center after senior Everett Golson transferred to Florida St. Zaire started just one game last season, but looked solid in Notre Dame’s Music City Bowl win over LSU. With the fleet-footed youngster running things, the Notre Dame offense will be much more ground-oriented than in years past. But, thanks to an offensive line filled with veterans, that shouldn’t be a bad thing.

In all likelihood, whether Texas can cover will depend on how its defensive line fares against the Irish o-line. Strong should have a solid group up front, so look for the Longhorns to keep it close against an Irish team that is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home.

Pick: Texas +10.

Wisconsin Badgers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-10.5)

The most enticing game of Week 1 sees Alabama take on Wisconsin in Arlington.  For the Crimson Tide, offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin will have to deal with the departure of quarterback Blake Sims and his three primary targets (Amari Cooper, DeAndrew White, and Christion Jones), along with running back TJ Yeldon.

While that is a ton of talent to lose (with the exception of the mediocre Sims), head coach Nick Saban will still have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to personnel. Behind another beastly offensive line, running back Derrick Henry will keep the Tide’s ground game strong, and QB Jake Coker could very well be an improvement over the inconsistent Sims.  The Alabama defense, meanwhile, looks solid as well – featuring four and five star recruits all over the field; the front seven should be particularly dominant.

Wisconsin was a beast on the ground last year, averaging 320.1 yards per game, fourth-best in the nation. Though star RB Melvin Gordon, who was responsible for 2,236 yards and 26 TDs, is now playing on Sundays, the Badgers will still feature a run-first offense this season behind junior Corey Clement. The bigger issue for the Badgers in terms of team turnover is at coach. Former boss Gary Andersen left for Oregon State last December and the team is now led by former Pittsburgh head coach Paul Chryst. Chryst has had a full pre-season to work with his new squad, but there may still be growing pains early in the year – especially given the power of their Week 1 opponent.

In the trends, Alabama has won and covered in their last three games as 10 to 14-point favorites. With all the turnover at Wisconsin, look for that to continue in Arlington as the Tide get off to another strong start.

Pick: Alabama -10.5.

(Photo credit: Peter R. Schlitt (flickr user One Raised Eyebrow) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons.)