Best College Football Upset Picks – Week 0 Saturday Underdog Bets 

• College football upset picks are back for a thrilling Week 0 slate.
• I target massive value backing live underdogs in early-season matchups.
• Read below for my top CFB moneyline picks and Week 0 predictions.

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Week 0 of the 2026 college football season is here, and the best value may be on two live underdogs rather than the biggest favorites on the board. With every team starting 0-0, early-season uncertainty can create opportunities before the market fully settles.

My focus is straightforward: NC State at Virginia and Hawaii at Stanford. Both underdogs are priced above even money, creating attractive outright-upset value if they can execute in key areas and avoid costly mistakes. These are the two matchups with underdog value and the only upset bets I am prioritizing this week.

Let’s break down why NC State and Hawaii are my top college football upset picks for Week 0.

College Football Upset Picks for Week 0

Finding outright winners early in the season requires identifying teams that can control the line of scrimmage, protect the football and win the field-position battle. NC State and Hawai’i each have a realistic upset path because neither needs to dominate every phase; they simply need to turn a few key moments in their favor.

That could mean winning third down, avoiding penalties, creating one or two explosive plays or finishing drives with touchdowns instead of field goals. Week 0 also tends to magnify preparation and execution, since teams have little current-season film to study.

For these underdogs, staying within striking distance into the fourth quarter would create the pressure and late-game opportunity needed to cash the moneyline.

CFB Upset Pick #1: NC State Moneyline vs Virginia

Virginia enters as the home favorite, taking sharp money early in the week. However, I see a clear path for an outright upset by NC State. Virginia’s offensive efficiency remains a question mark, whereas NC State brings a balanced attack that can control the clock and consistently win the field position battle.

Claim your BetMGM promo now to back this upset. NC State is drawing significant handle, indicating smart money respects their chances to win outright. With an implied probability of 39.5% at +153, I project this game much closer to a coin-flip. If they execute their defensive schemes effectively on third down, they leave Charlottesville with a victory.

• Pick: NC State Moneyline (+150 at BetMGM)

CFB Upset Pick #2: Hawaii Moneyline vs Stanford

Stanford hosts Hawaii, but the market has already moved against the home team. Stanford’s defense will be severely tested by an offense capable of deploying dynamic air raid offensive concepts. While Stanford looks to establish pocket presence and dictate the tempo, Hawai’i has garnered heavy early betting support from sharp bettors.

Claim your bet365 bonus now before the lines shift any further. At +160, the 38.5% implied probability drastically underestimates their scoring potential. If Hawai’i can maximize their red zone efficiency and force Stanford into a negative turnover differential, they possess a highly realistic path to an outright win on the road.

• Pick: Hawaii Moneyline (+160 at bet365)

Odds verified on August 28 at 4:38 PM ET.