Early Ohio State vs USC Prediction, Betting Line & Week 9 Picks
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- Ohio State heads to Southern California for a Halloween night Big Ten matchup with USC
- Julian Sayin is out for the Buckeyes, creating big questions at the QB position
- Read below for my early Ohio State vs USC prediction, the latest betting line and my Week 9 picks
Ohio State travels to Los Angeles to face USC on Halloween night, with kickoff at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Buckeyes are 6-1 overall and 4-0 in Big Ten play after a 19-15 win over Indiana on October 17, followed by a bye week.
USC sits at 6-2 overall and 3-2 in conference play, but the Trojans are coming off a 24-7 loss to Wisconsin on October 24. That game exposed real problems up front, as USC finished with 241 total yards, minus-17 net rushing yards and five sacks allowed.
My early Ohio State vs USC prediction centers on the Buckeyes’ quarterback change. Head coach Ryan Day said last week that Sayin is out indefinitely and that the team is planning for a possible absence through the rest of the season. Luke Fahey is ahead of Tavien St. Clair, but the competition remains open. That uncertainty shapes how I am approaching this game, so compare prices across the top college football betting apps before locking anything in.
Early Ohio State vs USC Prediction
Prediction: Ohio State wins a lower-scoring game, but USC stays within the number.
On paper, these two offenses look similar. Ohio State averages 39.3 points and 476.3 yards per game, while USC answers with 32.8 points and 434.8 yards per game. The gap shows up on defense, where the Buckeyes allow just 13.4 points and 264.3 yards per game compared with 25.0 points and 331.2 yards for USC.
My Ohio State vs USC prediction starts on third down. USC converts 50.5% of its attempts (49 of 97), with Jayden Maiava completing 183 of 274 passes for 2,303 yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions. Ohio State holds opponents to a 38.4% conversion rate (38 of 99). If Maiava keeps extending drives through the air, USC can limit how many possessions Ohio State gets.
That path has limits. Wisconsin shut down the USC ground game last week, and Ohio State allows only 92.9 rushing yards per game. I do not expect the Trojans to lean on the run here, which puts more weight on Maiava and an offensive line that just surrendered five sacks.
Ohio State vs USC Betting Line
Odds as of October 25, 2026, at BetMGM. New users can sign up with the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to use on this game.
Ohio State is a seven-point road favorite in the current college football odds, with USC +7 priced at -111. At -111, a bet needs to win 52.6% of the time to break even, while -108 requires 51.9%. The total sits at 50.5, with the Under at -108.
Ohio State vs USC Week 9 Picks
My Ohio State vs USC Week 9 picks start with the total. The scoring averages argue for points, but the context points the other way. Ohio State’s defense has been dominant all season, its last game was a 19-15 grind against Indiana, and it may start a quarterback with 13 pass attempts this year. USC just managed seven points against Wisconsin.
A full touchdown is a lot to lay with an inexperienced quarterback making a road start in primetime. If this game stays in the 40s, every point matters more, which adds value to USC +7. Bettors who want to tie both angles together can look at a same game parlay with USC +7 and Under 50.5, though pricing on that combination will vary.
Ohio State’s Quarterback Question vs USC
Fahey has completed 9 of 13 passes for 203 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions this season for the National Championship odds contender. That is a small sample, and it says little about how he handles a full game on the road. St. Clair remains in the mix, and Ohio State has not confirmed a starter.
Either way, USC’s front needs to make the new starter uncomfortable. Forcing quick throws and limiting explosive plays to Heisman Trophy odds favorite Jeremiah Smith would keep Ohio State from pulling away. A conservative Buckeyes game plan built around their defense would also support a lower total.
The final quarterback decision matters to this early Ohio State vs USC betting line. Check for an announcement before kickoff and compare the available spread and total.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
