Final Texas vs Tennessee Prediction, Injury Report & Odds

• Texas and Tennessee bring unbeaten records into Saturday’s noon ET kickoff on ABC
• The Friday injury report includes a new status for Texas running back Hollywood Smothers
• My final Texas vs Tennessee prediction, injury report and updated odds are below

Texas has already survived one close test against Ohio State. Now the Longhorns leave Austin for the first time this season, facing a 3-0 Tennessee team at Neyland Stadium this afternoon.

The Volunteers have leaned on their running game through three wins, but Texas just held consecutive opponents below 100 rushing yards. That matchup matters more to me than either team’s early scoring average.

My final Texas vs Tennessee prediction starts with the spread, followed by the latest injury report and odds. I’ll also explain how the rushing matchup affects my secondary total lean.

Final Texas vs Tennessee Prediction

• Pick: Tennessee +5.5 (-111 at BetMGM)

I’m sticking with Tennessee to cover, consistent with my early prediction. The Volunteers have rushed for 896 yards through three games, including 299 in their 45-24 road win over Georgia Tech. That gives them a way to sustain drives without asking Faizon Brandon to carry the entire offense.

Brandon has six touchdown passes without an interception through those three games. He has also contributed 137 rushing yards and three scores. Texas has to account for his legs even when it handles Tennessee’s running backs, which can make third down less predictable.

The obvious concern is the jump in competition. Texas is a top National Championship odds contender and held Ohio State to 94 rushing yards and UTSA to 72. I’m not expecting Tennessee to repeat its early rushing averages against this defense. If the Volunteers repeatedly face third-and-long, this pick gets uncomfortable quickly.

Still, the extra points give Tennessee room to lose a competitive game and cover. I prefer that cushion to needing an outright upset. Texas beat Ohio State 24-23 before handling UTSA 30-6; it has shown it can win a tight game, but winning and covering this number are different asks.

My original lean was Tennessee +4.5. With BetMGM now offering +5.5, I’m keeping the same side at the better spread. For readers comparing available platforms locally, our Texas prediction markets page covers another way to follow the Longhorns.

Texas vs Tennessee Injury Report

The SEC’s Friday evening report lists Texas running back Hollywood Smothers as probable. That is an improvement from Thursday’s questionable designation, though probable is not the same as confirmed available.

• Texas out: DL Justus Terry, DB Xavier Filsaime, OL Jordan Coleman and TE Nick Townsend
• Texas probable: RB Hollywood Smothers
• Tennessee out: TE Ethan Davis, WR Joakim Dodson, LB Jaedon Harmon, DB Edrees Farooq and DB Dylan Lewis
• Tennessee questionable: RB Javin Gordon and DL Nathan Robinson

Those are Friday designations, so I would check the final pregame report before placing a bet. Javin Gordon’s status is particularly relevant to a Tennessee offense that wants to establish the run, while Nathan Robinson’s availability affects the defensive front against Heisman Trophy odds candidate Arch Manning and the Texas offense.

Texas vs Tennessee Odds

BetMGM prices checked September 25 for Saturday’s game.

Texas remains the favorite on the college football odds board. Tennessee backers get more than a field goal of protection, while the moneyline requires an outright win. New customers can check the current BetMGM promo code before choosing their bet.

Texas vs Tennessee Total Lean

• Total lean: Under 54.5 (-108 at BetMGM)

The under is my smaller play. Texas’ recent run defense makes me cautious about projecting Tennessee’s early scoring pace forward, and a competitive game gives both offenses reason to keep using the ground game.

The risk is obvious: Brandon’s mobility and Manning’s passing can turn a stalled possession into a quick score. I prefer Tennessee with the points as the main selection, with the under a secondary lean rather than an equally strong bet.