Friday College Football Picks Today: Best Bets & Predictions (Oct. 9)
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- My Friday college football picks today back three favorites from the Oct. 9 slate.
- The Friday CFB best bets focus on spreads and conference matchups.
- See how third downs, turnovers and scoring efficiency shape my selections.
Friday’s five-game FBS slate gives us ranked matchups and conference races to sort through. BYU hosts Iowa State, while Iowa travels to Washington.
Elsewhere, Louisville and Florida State meet in the ACC, while two Mountain West games round out the board. The movement in these lines makes the number just as important as the team.
Below are my Friday college football picks today, including best bets and predictions for the Oct. 9 slate.
Week 6 CFB Spreads & Totals
- Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals: Louisville -3.5 | O/U 59.5
- Wyoming Cowboys at San Jose State Spartans: San Jose State -4.5 | O/U 42.5
- Iowa Hawkeyes at Washington Huskies: Washington -2.5 | O/U 41.5
- Washington State Cougars at Utah State Aggies: Utah State -5.5 | O/U 44.5
- Iowa State Cyclones at BYU Cougars: BYU -10.5 | O/U 45.5
These college football odds are from Kalshi as of Oct. 9. My BYU pick below uses the alternate -9.5 spread. Compare prediction market apps for available contracts.
The Oct. 8 snapshot showed significant line movement in the Utah State matchup. The Aggies opened as 1.5-point underdogs but flipped to 5.5-point favorites over Washington State, while the total dropped from 49.5 to 44.5. College football public betting splits reveal sharp money leaning toward Utah State, capturing 52.87% of the handle.
In that earlier snapshot, BYU opened as 14.5-point favorites over Iowa State, but the line has shrunk to -10, with the total dipping from 50.5 to 46.5 as sharp money sides with Iowa State. Louisville saw its spread shrink from an opening of -7.5 down to -3.5 against Florida State, despite the total ticking up to 59.5. Market data highlights sharp money backing Florida State with 78.38% of the spread stake.
At that point, Washington held relatively steady against Iowa, moving slightly from -2.5 to -3 with a stagnant total of 41.5, even though sharp money took Iowa on the spread. Finally, San Jose State experienced a minor bump from -5.5 to -6 against Wyoming, backed by 55.83% of the sharp handle.
College Football Picks Today
Kalshi prices as of Oct. 9. American moneylines are approximate equivalents before fees. A winning contract settles at $1.
College Football Picks Today #1: Louisville -3.5
- Pick: Louisville -3.5 (51¢ on Kalshi)
My Florida State vs Louisville prediction starts with the Cardinals’ scoring edge. Louisville boasts a high-scoring air raid offense averaging 38.2 points per game, significantly outperforming Florida State’s 32.8 points per contest. Louisville is simply finding ways to hit paydirt more consistently this season.
Ball security is heavily influencing my college football picks today. Louisville protects the football with excellent pocket presence, holding a +4 turnover differential. In contrast, Florida State has fallen off a cliff in that department, struggling at -3. That field position battle will be the defining factor.
With Louisville’s offensive trends continuing to improve, they are well-positioned to cover this spread at home. Both teams feature excellent red zone efficiency, with Florida State at a perfect 100% and Louisville at 83.3%. However, the superior turnover margin for Louisville provides the exact edge needed to lay the points. See the Kalshi promo code for the current new-user offer.
College Football Picks Today #2: BYU -9.5
- Pick: BYU -9.5 (54¢ on Kalshi)
My Iowa State vs BYU pick is built around the Cougars’ ability to sustain drives. BYU is an offensive juggernaut and a National Championship odds dark horse, posting 37.2 points per game while absolutely dominating on third down with an elite 57.4% conversion rate. They consistently keep the chains moving.
Contrast this with the 34.5% third down efficiency from Iowa State. The ability of BYU to sustain drives and dictate the ground and pound game supports laying the points. Furthermore, BYU creates extra possessions by holding a stellar +5 turnover differential, giving their offense even more bites at the apple.
Expect a controlled, clock-draining game plan from BYU in the second half. They have the defensive schemes to suffocate Iowa State when it matters most. Backing BYU -9.5, a half-point below the earlier -10, is my preferred Iowa State vs BYU spread pick.
College Football Picks Today #3: San Jose State -4.5
- Pick: San Jose State -4.5 (51¢ on Kalshi)
My Wyoming vs San Jose State prediction favors the Spartans’ more productive offense. San Jose State possesses a massive offensive advantage, averaging 21.8 points per game against the meager 14.2 points from Wyoming. San Jose State capitalizes on their scoring opportunities with an impressive 92.3% red zone efficiency.
Conversely, the Wyoming offense is defined by significant struggles and a disastrous -6 turnover differential. Wyoming’s inability to consistently move the ball or protect it makes keeping up with San Jose State a monumental task.
Expect San Jose State to control the pace in a gritty affair, using their superior field position battle to slowly bleed the clock. That is why I am backing San Jose State to cover the current 4.5-point spread.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
