College Football Upset Picks Week 10: Best Underdog Bets (Nov. 6–7)

• Week 10 college football upset picks start with a Friday road dog
• A home underdog’s turnover edge could flip a Saturday showdown
• Read below for my three best CFB moneyline upset bets

Week 10 of the college football season is loaded with several high-value plus-money underdogs, but a price alone doesn’t cash a ticket. I want teams with a real route to an outright win, and three of these moneylines stand out on the board.

South Florida brings the sharper efficiency profile into Greenville on Friday, Missouri hosts Texas with a major turnover advantage, and Iowa State carries a perfect red-zone scoring record into Waco.

Let’s break down my top college football upset picks for Week 10 and why each underdog can win outright.

College Football Upset Picks for Week 10

Prices as of November 5, 4:57 p.m. ET.

All three picks pay plus money, with implied win probabilities of 48.5% for South Florida, 46.3% for Missouri and 26.3% for Iowa State. USF and Missouri are priced close to coin flips, so their efficiency and turnover edges don’t need to be huge to create value. Shop the college football odds and compare the top College Football betting apps before locking in.

CFB Upset Pick #1: South Florida Moneyline at East Carolina

• Pick: South Florida Moneyline (+106 at FanDuel)

South Florida is the clearest matchup-based pick of the group. The Bulls average 27.0 points per game to East Carolina’s 24.0 and convert 40.2% of third downs, while the Pirates sit at 31.3%. Staying on the field matters as much as explosive plays in a road spot like this.

The scoring-area gap is even wider. USF has put up points on 25 of 26 red-zone trips, while ECU has scored on 23 of 30 (76.7%).

Ball security backs the case. South Florida has just four giveaways and a +5 turnover differential, while East Carolina has 14 giveaways and sits at -2. The warning sign is that eight of ECU’s 12 takeaways are interceptions, so the Bulls must avoid loose throws that hand the Pirates a short field.

My South Florida vs East Carolina prediction leans toward the visitors on scoring, third downs and turnovers. At +106, that’s more than a generic road upset call.

CFB Upset Pick #2: Missouri Moneyline vs Texas

• Pick: Missouri Moneyline (+116 at FanDuel)

Missouri is a live home underdog in a near-even scoring matchup. The Tigers average 31.5 points per game to Texas’ 30.8 and convert 42% of third downs to the Longhorns’ 39.6%. They also arrive off a 34-10 win over Arkansas.

The real separator is turnovers. Missouri has five giveaways and 13 takeaways for a +8 differential, while Texas has 12 giveaways against nine takeaways, leaving it at -3. If the Tigers protect the ball and cash in on another Texas mistake, they can win the possession battle at home.

Texas holds the red-zone edge, scoring on 28 of 30 trips (93.3%) compared with Missouri’s 25 of 33 (75.8%), so the Tigers can’t waste chances. Still, slightly better scoring and third-down numbers, paired with that turnover gap, make +116 a defensible price in the Missouri vs Texas odds.

CFB Upset Pick #3: Iowa State Moneyline at Baylor

• Pick: Iowa State Moneyline (+280 at FanDuel)

Iowa State is the long shot, and the reason to back them in this one is their red-zone numbers. The Cyclones have scored on all 23 of their red-zone trips this season, including 14 touchdowns. Baylor has scored on 27 of 35 (77.1%).

The Cyclones also bring momentum after a 51-49 win over Oklahoma State on Oct. 31. They average 29.0 points per game, just behind Baylor’s 30.6, so there’s little room for wasted possessions.

Turnovers are close. Iowa State is +3 with seven giveaways and 10 takeaways, while Baylor is +4 with 11 giveaways and 15 takeaways. The Cyclones need to protect the ball rather than count on extra chances.

Third down is the obstacle, where Baylor converts 39.9% to Iowa State’s 33%. Turning more red-zone trips into touchdowns would help close that gap. My Iowa State vs Baylor prediction still sees a concrete upset path, and +280 pays well for it.