College Football Upset Picks Week 5: Best Saturday Underdog Bets

• My Week 5 college football upset picks target three home underdogs
• Florida, Michigan and Louisville face different tests on the road
• Read on for my outright upset bets, moneyline odds and matchup breakdowns

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Welcome to Week 5 of the 2026 college football season, where the playoff picture is already taking shape. We have plenty of intriguing angles to attack as undefeated powerhouses look to avoid road trip letdowns. Navigating the college football odds requires finding vulnerable favorites stepping into hostile territory.

Finding value means looking past the public narratives and digging into the statistical mismatches. I am targeting home underdogs that boast strong defensive schemes and the ability to win the field position battle. We want teams that can disrupt a quarterback’s pocket presence and force critical mistakes.

If you want to back these home underdogs, using a BetMGM promo code is a smart way to maximize your weekend bankroll. Below are my three college football upset picks for Saturday, Oct. 3.

Week 5 College Football Upset Picks

Moneylines from BetMGM as of Oct. 2. These are outright winner picks, not spread bets.

These three matchups feature home underdogs with different paths to an outright win. Scoring averages tell only part of the story as red-zone efficiency and turnover margins matter, too. My analysis focuses on underdogs with the ground game and ball security needed to control the clock and pull off an outright win against tough competition.

CFB Upset Pick #1: Missouri Moneyline vs Florida

• Pick: Missouri ML (+180 at BetMGM)

Missouri presents a significant threat to eighth-ranked Florida this weekend. The Tigers boast a high-scoring offense averaging 35.8 points and 418.8 total yards per game. With a stellar +4 turnover differential and 12 defensive sacks, Missouri has the disruptive defensive schemes needed to rattle the visitors early.

Florida brings a massive 53.5 points per game average and an outstanding 95.8% red zone efficiency into this SEC clash. However, Missouri fields a stout run defense that holds opponents to just 100.3 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry. This front seven is perfectly built to counter the Florida ground and pound attack.

If Missouri capitalizes on their home field advantage at Faurot Field, they have the statistical foundation to secure an outright victory. The Tigers only have two giveaways all season. Maintaining that elite ball security will allow them to control the tempo and spring the trap on a top ten opponent.

CFB Upset Pick #2: Minnesota to Win vs Michigan

• Pick: Minnesota ML (+180 at BetMGM)

Minnesota is a very live home underdog against Michigan. The Golden Gophers are fresh off a top Big Ten win over Washington, where they posted 204 passing yards and 125 rushing yards. Their balanced offensive attack currently averages 35.0 points per game heading into this matchup.

Michigan heads into this contest reeling from a narrow 20-19 loss to Iowa. The Wolverines are struggling significantly with ball security, carrying a sloppy -3 turnover differential after committing six giveaways this season. Minnesota brings a disciplined +2 turnover margin, which is critical for winning the field position battle.

While Michigan leans on their traditional offensive sets, Minnesota has the dynamic playmakers to exploit a vulnerable secondary. The Golden Gophers average 258.8 passing yards per game. If they establish solid third down conversions early, Minnesota is perfectly positioned to hand Michigan a second consecutive conference loss.

CFB Upset Pick #3: NC State Moneyline vs Louisville

• Pick: NC State ML (+150 at BetMGM)

NC State possesses the offensive firepower necessary to shock Louisville in Raleigh. The Wolfpack are highly efficient on critical downs, converting an outstanding 53.6% of their third down attempts. They also excel in scoring range with a 94.7% conversion rate inside the 20.

Louisville utilizes a dangerous air raid offense that produces 295.8 passing yards and 41.3 points per game. However, they proved vulnerable on the ground last week, surrendering 177 rushing yards in a loss to Wake Forest. NC State averages a robust 219.0 rushing yards per game and matches up perfectly here.

Averaging 38.3 points per contest, the NC State offense can easily keep pace in a potential shootout. By pounding the rock and keeping the Louisville playmakers on the sideline, the Wolfpack will control the clock. This makes them a prime value play to pull off the outright win at home.