College Football Week 4 Prediction Market Picks: Best Kalshi & Polymarket Bets
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- Saturday’s Week 4 college football slate includes massive showdowns like Texas–Tennessee and Oregon–USC
- I’m focusing on outright winners for my Week 4 picks as oppose to laying points on the spread
- Check out my college football Week 4 prediction market picks, including the best kalshi and Polymarket bets
The Week 4 college football slate is loaded with marquee matchups and I can’t wait to watch them all. Texas heads to Tennessee and Oregon visits USC on Saturday, to headline the day. Those road tests are the main attractions in my Week 4 college football prediction market picks, with TCU at UCF providing another matchup worth watching.
I’m focusing on outright winners here. The selection has to win the game, regardless of the margin, and the contract price determines how much that outcome costs to back.
Below are my three favorite college football Week 4 prediction market picks, including the best Kalshi and Polymarket bets.
College Football Week 4 Prediction Market Picks
Prices checked September 24th for Saturday’s games. Compare available prediction market apps before placing a trade.
Best Kalshi and Polymarket Bets for Week 4 College Football
Texas vs Tennessee Prediction
- Pick: Texas to win (64¢ displayed at Polymarket)
I’m backing Texas to handle its first trip to Neyland Stadium. Heisman Trophy odds candidate Arch Manning has already helped the Longhorns through a difficult finish this season, leading three straight touchdown drives in their 24-23 comeback win over Ohio State on September 12.
Those drives required more than one big play. Each covered at least 72 yards and lasted at least 12 plays. Texas followed that result with a 30-6 win over UTSA, and I like its chances of putting together enough sustained possessions to win in Knoxville.
Tennessee is a much harder road assignment than that latest home game. The Vols also enter unbeaten after beating Kennesaw State 42-9. I prefer backing Texas outright to asking it to cover a spread in front of this crowd.
Readers comparing Texas prediction markets should check the live buy quote. The 64¢ display is the price available right now, but that is subject to change leading up to kickoff.
Oregon vs USC Prediction
- Pick: Oregon to win (61¢ at Kalshi)
My Oregon pick starts with Dante Moore’s ball security. He has thrown for 800 yards and nine touchdowns without an interception through three games. Giving USC extra possessions would make this road test much tougher.
I’m putting limited weight on Oregon’s 84-0 win over Portland State. The National Championship odds contender gained 740 yards against an FCS opponent, but they had allowed 66 points combined in their first two games. That earlier defensive performance matters against USC.
Jayden Maiava has thrown for 1,173 yards, 12 touchdowns and one interception through four games, completing 75.7% of his passes. This is not a pick based on expecting USC’s offense to disappear. I’m taking Oregon in a close game, with Moore’s efficiency helping the Ducks finish enough drives.
A 61¢ contract means a $100 wager would return $164 if it wins. Eligible new customers can use the Kalshi promo code to tail this wager.
TCU vs UCF Upset Pick
- Upset pick: UCF to win (42¢ at Kalshi)
UCF is an underdog in the college football odds. Both teams enter 2-1, and I like the Knights’ chance to make this a game decided on the ground. Duke Watson has rushed for 297 yards on 27 carries through three games.
The passing game is the concern. Keyone Jenkins completed seven of 17 passes for 86 yards, one touchdown and one interception in UCF’s last game. The Knights need more from that part of the offense if TCU forces them to chase points.
TCU has outscored its last two opponents 94-14 since losing 15-10 to North Carolina. That makes UCF the least comfortable pick of the three, and I would keep the stake smaller. I’m backing the home upset at the listed price, not treating 42¢ as a bargain simply because it is below 50¢.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
