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Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston Prediction, Picks & Odds (Wednesday, Oct 16)

Brady Trettenero

By Brady Trettenero in College Football

Updated: October 16, 2024 at 5:47 am EDT

Published:


Western Kentucky Hilltoppers quarterback Caden Veltkamp throws a pass against the Boston College Eagles
Sep 28, 2024; Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA; Western Kentucky Hilltoppers quarterback Caden Veltkamp (10) throws a pass against the Boston College Eagles during the second half at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images
  • Read our Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston prediction and picks for Wednesday night
  • The Week 8 college football odds favor the Bearkats by under a field goal at home
  • See below for our WKU vs SHSU best bets, including a lean on the over 55.5 points

It’s time for some midweek MACtion! Wait, scratch that – we’re talking Conference USA football here. The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4-2, 2-0 CUSA) are set to square off against the Sam Houston Bearkats (5-1, 2-0 CUSA) on Wednesday night (October 16).

This clash of CUSA contenders kicks off at 7 p.m. ET at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium in Huntsville, Texas, and you can catch all the action on ESPN2. Both teams are unbeaten in league play, making this a huge showdown in the race to challenge Liberty for the conference crown.

The Bearkats are laying 2.5 points at home, with the total set at a juicy 55.5. Can the Hilltoppers pull off the upset, or will Sam Houston defend their turf? Let’s dive into our prediction.

Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston Prediction

The Hilltoppers have hit their stride since a 63-0 season-opening loss to Alabama, winning four of five, including a 44-17 rout of UTEP last week. Sophomore QB Caden Veltkamp has been solid, throwing for 1,147 yards and 11 TDs, guiding a WKU offense averaging 28.3 points per game.

In just their second FBS season, Sam Houston has already surpassed last year’s win total. The Bearkats’ only loss came against UCF, and they’ve reeled off four consecutive victories since. Dual-threat QB Hunter Watson leads the charge with 859 passing yards, 370 rushing yards, and 11 total TDs, powering an offense putting up 31.8 points per contest.

Both defenses are allowing 23.8 points per game, with WKU ranked 4th in CUSA against the run and Sam Houston 3rd in pass efficiency defense. The Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS in their last five, while the Bearkats are 5-1 ATS on the year.

The key matchup could be WKU’s passing attack (28th nationally, 278.8 ypg) against Sam Houston’s secondary (59th, 208.8 ypg allowed). If Veltkamp and his receivers can connect on big plays, it could swing the game in the Hilltoppers’ favor.

My Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston prediction is that WKU’s aerial assault makes the difference in a tight one. Take Western Kentucky +3, and consider the over in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Wednesday CFB Picks:

  • Western Kentucky +2.5 (-110)
  • Over 55.5 Points (-110) 

Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Western Kentucky +2.5 (-110) +120 Over 55.5 (-110)
Sam Houston State -2.5 (-110) -140 Under 55.5 (-110)

The oddsmakers have installed Sam Houston as a 2.5-point home favorite, implying a 58.3% win probability for the Bearkats. The Hilltoppers are +120 on the moneyline (41.7% implied odds), compared to Sam Houston at -140 (62.3% implied odds).

The line reflects the Bearkats’ strong start and home-field advantage, but the Hilltoppers’ recent play shows they can compete. WKU’s 5-0 ATS run indicates they’ve exceeded expectations, while Sam Houston’s 5-1 ATS mark shows they’ve handled business as favorites

YouTube video

The over/under opened at 54.5 and has since ticked up to 55.5, suggesting some early action on the over. Given these teams’ offensive outputs – Sam Houston at 31.8 ppg, WKU at 28.3 ppg, it’s no surprise to see the total on the rise.

Trends also point towards a high-scoring affair, as the over is 5-0 in Bearkats’ last five home games 5-0 in Hilltoppers’ last five road games.

 

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Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston H2H History

The all-time series between these programs is tied 1-1, with WKU earning a 28-23 victory last season. Here’s a look at their recent meetings:

Date Result
2023 Western Kentucky 28, Sam Houston 23
2022 Sam Houston 17, Western Kentucky 14

The Hilltoppers’ win last year came despite turning the ball over five times, demonstrating their ability to overcome mistakes. Familiarity could play a role as these teams meet for the third straight season.

 

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Brady Trettenero
Brady Trettenero

Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor

Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

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