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Odds Bieber vs Cruise Fight Actually Happens Are 90/1, Says Me

Side-by-side of Justin Bieber and Tom Cruise.
Justin Bieber, 31 years the junior of Tom Cruise, challenged the aging action star to an MMA fight because God was playing Mad Libs today. Photo by Twitter user @ForTheWin.
  • Justin Bieber challenged Tom Cruise to an MMA fight on Twitter for no apparent reason
  • Conor McGregor has offered to host the event
  • What are the chances the fight happens? Will it spawn more celeb-on-celeb violence? Today’s most pressing questions are answered, below

The world of celebrity beefs is always well populated, but the only battle people were talking about on Monday morning was a potential scuffle between pop star Justin Bieber and movie star Tom Cruise.

The former challenged the latter to a mixed-martial arts fight on Twitter and BetOnline responded in kind with odds on who would win.

My colleague already discussed the betting value regarding the Bieber vs Cruise odds. Now it’s my turn to formulate some unique props and odds on this bewildering fracas. This, my friends, is why we created an Entertainment section on the site.

SBD’s Bieber vs Cruise Fight Odds

Proposition SBD’s Odds
Odds Justin Bieber vs Tom Cruise fight actually happens 90/1
Odds the UFC hosts the Bieber vs Cruise fight 350/1
Odds McGregor Sports and Entertainment hosts the Bieber vs Cruise fight 125/1
Odds Bieber fights WWE star-turned-UFC fighter CM Punk instead of Tom Cruise 500/1
Odds the UFC starts a celebrity fight brand 450/1
Odds Conor McGregor vs Mark Wahlberg fight actually happens 1000/1

If you’re wondering how all of this started, join the club. Here’s the tweet that started it.

Neither combatant-to-be has shed any light (yet) on why the Biebs challenged a 56-year-old Lilliputian to a fight. But there’s clearly something below the surface here.

Will the Bieber vs Cruise Fight Happen?

I’ve got the odds of this fight taking place at 90/1. That translates to a 1.1% chance. Bieber is clearly serious. He’s trained with Floyd Mayweather and, even if he has zero skill as a pugilist, appears confident in his physical abilities.


That leaves the other half of the equation. Is Tom Cruise crazy enough to accept the challenge? If this was 2005 and TC was still acting like he did on Oprah …

… I’d make the odds significantly shorter.

But we’ve seen a more restrained Tom Cruise over the last decade. The “Litigation” section of his Wikipedia page has no entries post-2012. Compared to his tabloid ubiquity earlier this millennium, he’s been ghosting us for years.

Without Katie Holmes around to give up supernatural powers of caprice, Cruise is not going to opt into this spectacle.

If Cruise is out, will another celebrity step in to duke it out with Bieber? Well it just so happens that the UFC is already home to one celebrity masquerading as a mixed-martial artist, one CM Punk.

The former WWE star tried his hand at the real fight game to disastrous results.

But don’t hold your breath for a Bieber vs Punk bout. Punk, real name Phillip Brooks, fought at welterweight (170 pounds). Bieber wouldn’t crack 150 after the milk-gallon challenge.

Will the UFC Get Into the Celebrity Fight Game?

Bieber’s tweet tagged UFC president Dana White, hoping that the world’s foremost MMA matchmaker would step up to host the event.

While the UFC has dabbled with celebrities-turned-fighters — see CM Punk, Brock Lesnar,, and Greg Hardy — they have all had a modicum of fighting pedigree. He has shied away from fights between complete newbies, i.e. fights that would be pure car-wreck spectacle.

When YouTuber Logan Paul tried to parlay his fledgling celebrity boxing career into a UFC fight, White didn’t mince words.

“[Logan Paul] would get murdered here. He would get hurt badly. Hurt badly. If I ever let him fight in the UFC I should be arrested.” — Dana White,via MMAjunkie

But that doesn’t mean no one will be willing to provide the infrastructure for Bieber vs Cruise.

Almost immediately after Bieber tweeted down his gauntlet, former UFC champ Conor McGregor tweeted back that he would host the event.


I still have the odds of McGregor Sports and Entertainment hosting the fight at 125/1 (0.8% chance) because it’s a huge longshot that the fight happens, in the first place, plus McGregor is a notoriously difficult negotiator.

But the chances of this celebrity sort-of-grudge match being put on by arguably the world’s most effective promoter are better than it being put on by an actual fight league like the UFC.

For all the latest Bieber vs Cruise odds and news, stay tuned to SBD’s Twitter and Facebook.

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