Facebook, Trump & the Cambridge Analytica Data Breach Fallout
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has finally addressed his company’s involvement in a data “breach” involving data analytics firm Cambridge Analytica (“CA”), which harvested personal information from 50 million Facebook accounts for use in political campaigns, including Donald Trump’s successful presidential bid.
The details of how CA harvested the information has been covered in depth elsewhere. Suffice it to say, there was no real “breach” of security. CA took information that Facebook made available. It then used that information for an improper purpose per Facebook’s terms, to wit, the data was not allowed to be “marketed or sold.”
[T]he #DeleteFacebook movement is gaining traction. Will it all blow over or is [Mark] Zuckerberg looking at the end of his world as he knows it?
In his statement on Wednesday, Zuckerberg recognized that his company’s current security measures are not strong enough, outlining a number of changes it plans to make, including “[r]equiring a signed contract from developers that want to pull your posts or private information.”
Too little too late? Users are furious and the #DeleteFacebook movement is gaining traction. Will it all blow over or is Zuckerberg looking at the end of his world as he knows it? Let’s explore the future of all relevant parties through the power of odds!
The Facebook Fallout
| Facebook & Cambridge Analytica Props | Odds |
|---|---|
| O/U on Facebook users as of Dec. 31, 2018 | 2.4 billion |
| O/U on Facebook’s share price close on Fri. March 23rd | $165.00 |
| O/U on Facebooks’ share price close on Dec. 31st, 2018 | $176.50 |
| Odds Mark Zuckerberg steps down as Facebook CEO in 2018 | 14/1 |
| O/U date when Mark Zuckerberg next addresses the data breach | November 7, 2018 |
| O/U number of cat pictures on Cambridge Analytica’s servers | 32 million |
The story has already hit the Facebook stock hard. It’s likely going to impact its user numbers, as well. The site has consistently added about 60 million users per quarter recently, a figure which is likely to decline by at least 20%.
As for share price, the immediate hits will likely level out by year’s end. Facebook has never had growth of less than 0% over the course of a full calendar year. The #DeleteFacebook hashtag may be trending, but it’s small potatoes when compared to Facebook’s two billion active users.
The story has already hit the Facebook stock hard. It’s likely going to impact its user numbers, as well.
Zuckerberg knew about the breach back in 2016, but only decided to publicly announce it after the media caught wind of what had happened. Likewise, several intelligence agencies were aware of Russian interference in the 2016 election, but details were only revealed after Trump was declared the winner. The next target may be the 2018 midterm, which takes place on November 6th. If this trend continues, we’ll find out about any breaches after it’s way too late.
And how about the number of cat pictures on Cambridge Analytica’s servers? Well, according to the American Veterinary Medical Association, roughly 30.4% of American households are cat owners with an average of 2.1 cats per household. CA extracted Facebook data from 50 million users, so 15.2 million of those are likely cat owners. Now, if we know anything about cat owners, it’s that they all have at least one photo of each cat on Facebook. So that leaves us with a modest estimate of 31.9 million cat pictures. Phew.
Or maybe, like the rest of us, Cambridge Analytica doesn’t give a damn about your cat pictures!
| Odds the following phrases show up in Facebook’s “Trending” section by Mar. 23rd | Odds |
|---|---|
| “Cambridge Analytica” | 1/2 |
| “Data Breach” | 6/1 |
| “#DeleteFacebook” | 10/1 |
Facebook has been accused of unethically manipulating their “trending” section in the past, which prompted the social media company to change with the way they filter trending topics. The CA breach is undeniably one of the biggest stories at the moment, and by omitting the story from their trending section, Facebook would do even more damage to their reputation.
The #DeleteFacebook movement, however, may have to stick to Twitter.
The Trump Connection
| Odds Donald Trump … | Odds |
|---|---|
| Addresses the Facebook/Cambridge Analytica issue via Twitter (by Mar. 24, 2018) | 3/1 |
| Publicly mentions Cambridge Analytica by name (by Mar. 24, 2018) | 7/1 |
Will Donald Trump fire off a few tweets about Facebook and Cambridge Analytica? Let me answer that question with another question: Will Fox & Friends devote their next few shows to the breach? So many of Trump’s morning Twitter rants are seemingly inspired by whatever’s on Fox & Friends, so there’s a good chance the conservative morning show will decide whether he starts caring.
Right now, the President is preoccupied with his feud with Joe Biden and his Twitter tirade against Robert Mueller.
Cambridge Analytica’s Other Meddlings
| Odds Cambridge Analytica is revealed to have been involved in influencing … | Odds |
|---|---|
| Another US election | 3/1 |
| The French election | 5/1 |
| 2018 Russian presidential election | 9/1 |
| Anti-vaccination movement | 25/1 |
| MLB or NBA All-Star ballot | 50/1 |
| Flat Earth movement | 50/1 |
| Sudden popularity of Fidget Spinners | 100/1 |
What else has this shady data mining company been up to? Countries all around the world have been detecting foul play when it comes to their elections; could CA be to blame for any of that as well?
The CEO has been recorded boasting about using Ukrainian prostitutes to gain compromising material on politicians, and claimed to have run the Trump’s entire digital campaign. The company was also heavily involved in the Brexit campaign.
Cambridge Analytica is the lovechild of Steve Bannon, Trump’s former Chief Strategist, and Robert Mercer, a billionaire Republican donor who financed the Trump and Cruz campaigns. That should give you a pretty good idea of what Cambridge Analytica hopes to achieve.
The Next Social Media Breach
| Next social media outlet to be publicly involved in a major data breach | Odds |
|---|---|
| 2/1 | |
| 3/1 | |
| 5/1 | |
| 7/1 | |
| Snapchat | 9/1 |
| 20/1 |
From celebrity nudes to top secret emails, it seems nothing online is secure anymore. It’s only a matter of time until another social media company declares that they’ve been hacked. It wouldn’t be surprising if a few on this list have already been breached.
There’s a lot compromising material up for grabs. There’s unsavory business ties through LinkedIn, secret DMs through Twitter, embarrassing texts through WhatsApp, and I don’t even need to get into Snapchat.
It’s only a matter of time until another social media platform falls victim to a breach, hack, or leak.
Don Aguero is a man of many talents, writing about nearly anything you can put odds to. Don has been writing for SportsBettingDime since 2015, covering sports, entertainment and politics. You name it, he's covered it! He is also a steadfast West Ham fan, and has learned to embrace that suffering.
