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Do the Golden Globes Predict the Oscar Winners?

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Entertainment

Updated Mar 26, 2020 · 10:26 AM PDT

Rami Malek at the 2016 Emmy Awards
Rami Malek, seen here at the 2016 Emmy Awards, recently added a Golden Globe to his resume. Is an Oscar going to follow? Photo by Disney | ABC Television (flickr) [CC License].
  • The 2019 Golden Globes were full of surprises, like Bohemian Rhapsody winning Best Drama. 
  • Does the outcome of the Golden Globes foreshadow the Academy Awards?
  • Learn the trends and the latest Oscar Awards odds.

The 2019 Golden Globes left a lot of jaws on the floor. It wasn’t only people who didn’t know Christian Bale is Welsh who were shocked …

… some of the major-award winners left experts and soothsayers stunned, particularly Bohemian Rhapsody (which has a score of 49 on Metacritic) winning Best Picture, Drama.

As betting on the Academy Awards increases in popularity, is there potential to use the outcome of the Golden Globes to find value? Today, we’re looking back at the last five years of winners in the major categories (Best Picture, Best Actor/Actress, Best Supporting Actor/Actress, and Best Director) to see if there’s a correlation between winning a Golden Globe and winning an Oscar.

First, here’s who won at this year’s Globes and their latest Oscars odds.

2019 Golden Globe Winners & Oscar Odds

Winner Category Oscar Odds
Bohemian Rhapsody Best Drama +600
Green Book Best Musical/Comedy +500
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) Best Actor, Drama -180
Glenn Close (The Wife) Best Actress, Drama -160
Christian Bale (Vice) Best Actor, Musical/Comedy +270
Olivia Colman (The Favourite) Best Actress, Musical/Comedy +250
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) Best Director -600
Mahershala Ali (Green Book) Best Supporting Actor OFF
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) Best Supporting Actress OFF

Based on the last five years of Oscar winners (see the tables below), there could be value on a couple of these names.

Recent Oscar Winners (Best Picture)

Oscar Winner Year Did it win a Golden Globe? In which GG category?
The Shape of Water 2018 No N/A
Moonlight 2017 Yes Best Drama
Spotlight 2016 No N/A
Birdman 2015 No N/A
12 Years a Slave 2014 Yes Best Drama

Recent Oscar Winners (Best Actor)

Oscar Winner Year Did he win a Golden Globe? In which GG category?
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) 2018 Yes Best Actor, Drama
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) 2017 Yes Best Actor, Drama
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) 2016 Yes Best Actor, Drama
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) 2015 Yes Best Actor, Drama
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) 2014 Yes Best Actor, Drama

Recent Oscar Winners (Best Actress)

Oscar Winner Year Did she win a Golden Globe? In which GG category?
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) 2018 Yes Best Actress, Drama
Emma Stone (La La Land) 2017 Yes Best Actress, Musical/Comedy
Brie Larson (Room) 2016 Yes Best Actress, Drama
Julianne Moore (Still Alice) 2015 Yes Best Actress, Drama
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) 2014 Yes Best Actress, Drama

Recent Oscar Winners (Best Director)

Oscar Winner Year Did (s)he win a Golden Globe?
Guillermo del Toro (Shape of Water) 2018 Yes
Damien Chazelle (La La Land) 2017 Yes
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant) 2016 Yes
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman) 2015 No
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) 2014 Yes

Recent Oscar Winners (Supporting Actor)

Oscar Winner Year Did he win a Golden Globe?
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) 2018 Yes
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) 2017 No
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) 2016 No
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) 2015 Yes
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) 2014 Yes

Recent Oscar Winners (Supporting Actress)

Oscar Winner Year Did she win a Golden Globe?
Allison Janney (I, Tonya) 2018 Yes
Viola Davis (Fences) 2017 Yes
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) 2016 No
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) 2015 Yes
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) 2014 No

Betting Advice

The strongest correlation is between Best Actor winners. The last five Best Actor winners at the Oscars also won Best Actor, Drama at the Golden Globes.

Taking -180 odds on Rami Malek to win the 2019 Oscar is solid value based on that trend.

There is also a strong correlation between Best Actress awards. Four of the last five Oscar winners were awarded Best Actress, Drama at the GGs. The only exception was Emma Stone, who won Best Actress, Musical/Comedy.

If anyone other than Glenn Close or Olivia Colman wins Best Actress at the Oscars, it will be a marked departure from the trend.

It’s tempting to take the long odds for Bohemian Rhapsody or Green Book to win Best Picture, but three of the last five Oscar winners for Best Picture did not win a GG.

Note that Roma was not eligible for Best Picture, Drama at the Globes because it’s a foreign-language film. It will be eligible for Best Picture at the Oscars and is the current betting favorite.

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