Do the Golden Globes Predict the Oscar Winners?
By Sascha Paruk in Entertainment
Updated: March 26, 2020 at 10:26 am EDTPublished:
- The 2019 Golden Globes were full of surprises, like Bohemian Rhapsody winning Best Drama.
- Does the outcome of the Golden Globes foreshadow the Academy Awards?
- Learn the trends and the latest Oscar Awards odds.
The 2019 Golden Globes left a lot of jaws on the floor. It wasn’t only people who didn’t know Christian Bale is Welsh who were shocked …
A Lot Of People Were Shook By Christian Bale’s Welsh Accent At The Golden Globes https://t.co/JytlLKdcHL
— BuzzFeed (@BuzzFeed) January 7, 2019
… some of the major-award winners left experts and soothsayers stunned, particularly Bohemian Rhapsody (which has a score of 49 on Metacritic) winning Best Picture, Drama.
As betting on the Academy Awards increases in popularity, is there potential to use the outcome of the Golden Globes to find value? Today, we’re looking back at the last five years of winners in the major categories (Best Picture, Best Actor/Actress, Best Supporting Actor/Actress, and Best Director) to see if there’s a correlation between winning a Golden Globe and winning an Oscar.
First, here’s who won at this year’s Globes and their latest Oscars odds.
2019 Golden Globe Winners & Oscar Odds
| Winner | Category | Oscar Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bohemian Rhapsody | Best Drama | +600 |
| Green Book | Best Musical/Comedy | +500 |
| Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) | Best Actor, Drama | -180 |
| Glenn Close (The Wife) | Best Actress, Drama | -160 |
| Christian Bale (Vice) | Best Actor, Musical/Comedy | +270 |
| Olivia Colman (The Favourite) | Best Actress, Musical/Comedy | +250 |
| Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) | Best Director | -600 |
| Mahershala Ali (Green Book) | Best Supporting Actor | OFF |
| Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) | Best Supporting Actress | OFF |
Based on the last five years of Oscar winners (see the tables below), there could be value on a couple of these names.
Recent Oscar Winners (Best Picture)
| Oscar Winner | Year | Did it win a Golden Globe? | In which GG category? |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Shape of Water | 2018 | No | N/A |
| Moonlight | 2017 | Yes | Best Drama |
| Spotlight | 2016 | No | N/A |
| Birdman | 2015 | No | N/A |
| 12 Years a Slave | 2014 | Yes | Best Drama |
Recent Oscar Winners (Best Actor)
| Oscar Winner | Year | Did he win a Golden Globe? | In which GG category? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) | 2018 | Yes | Best Actor, Drama |
| Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) | 2017 | Yes | Best Actor, Drama |
| Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) | 2016 | Yes | Best Actor, Drama |
| Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) | 2015 | Yes | Best Actor, Drama |
| Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) | 2014 | Yes | Best Actor, Drama |
Recent Oscar Winners (Best Actress)
| Oscar Winner | Year | Did she win a Golden Globe? | In which GG category? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) | 2018 | Yes | Best Actress, Drama |
| Emma Stone (La La Land) | 2017 | Yes | Best Actress, Musical/Comedy |
| Brie Larson (Room) | 2016 | Yes | Best Actress, Drama |
| Julianne Moore (Still Alice) | 2015 | Yes | Best Actress, Drama |
| Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) | 2014 | Yes | Best Actress, Drama |
Recent Oscar Winners (Best Director)
| Oscar Winner | Year | Did (s)he win a Golden Globe? |
|---|---|---|
| Guillermo del Toro (Shape of Water) | 2018 | Yes |
| Damien Chazelle (La La Land) | 2017 | Yes |
| Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant) | 2016 | Yes |
| Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman) | 2015 | No |
| Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) | 2014 | Yes |
Recent Oscar Winners (Supporting Actor)
| Oscar Winner | Year | Did he win a Golden Globe? |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) | 2018 | Yes |
| Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) | 2017 | No |
| Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) | 2016 | No |
| J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) | 2015 | Yes |
| Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) | 2014 | Yes |
Recent Oscar Winners (Supporting Actress)
| Oscar Winner | Year | Did she win a Golden Globe? |
|---|---|---|
| Allison Janney (I, Tonya) | 2018 | Yes |
| Viola Davis (Fences) | 2017 | Yes |
| Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) | 2016 | No |
| Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) | 2015 | Yes |
| Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) | 2014 | No |
Betting Advice
The strongest correlation is between Best Actor winners. The last five Best Actor winners at the Oscars also won Best Actor, Drama at the Golden Globes.
Taking -180 odds on Rami Malek to win the 2019 Oscar is solid value based on that trend.
There is also a strong correlation between Best Actress awards. Four of the last five Oscar winners were awarded Best Actress, Drama at the GGs. The only exception was Emma Stone, who won Best Actress, Musical/Comedy.
If anyone other than Glenn Close or Olivia Colman wins Best Actress at the Oscars, it will be a marked departure from the trend.
It’s tempting to take the long odds for Bohemian Rhapsody or Green Book to win Best Picture, but three of the last five Oscar winners for Best Picture did not win a GG.
Note that Roma was not eligible for Best Picture, Drama at the Globes because it’s a foreign-language film. It will be eligible for Best Picture at the Oscars and is the current betting favorite.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
