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Jake Paul and Tana Mongeau Engagement, Wedding, and Divorce Odds

Tana Mongeau and Jake Paul hugging outside a Mercedes-Benz dealership.
YouTube stars Tana Mongeau and Jake Paul got engaged on Sunday after dating for just two months, raising eyebrows about the legitimacy of the engagement. Photo from Instagram user jakepaul .
  • The relationship between Jake Paul and Tana Mongeau is moving faster than a cheetah chasing an antelope in a Maserati
  • The two YouTube stars got engaged on the weekend after dating for just two months
  • Is the whole thing a setup to get more followers? We set the odds on whether the relationship is real, how long it will last, and more

If you’re reading this, I’m going to assume that you already have a certain level of familiarity with YouTube stars Jake Paul and Tana Mongeau. With 19.2 million and 4.5 million subscribers, respectively, you’re certainly not alone.

The pair became YouTube’s version of a power couple back in April when they kindled a romance, which Tana dubbed a “rebound” after her polyamorous relationship with actress Bella Thorne and artist MOD SUN came to a sad, if predictable end.

Both have a history of using their relationships to build their brands and increase their followers, so there was understandable scepticism about their relationship from the outset.


On Sunday, after dating for just two months, Paul proposed to Mongeau at a nightclub in her native Las Vegas on her 21st birthday.

To the dreamers, it’s a sure sign that the two are wholeheartedly in love, devoted to each other to the fullest. To the pragmatists, it looks more like matrimonial clickbait.

As our odds below show, SBD’s entertainment team is still among the sceptics.

Jake Paul & Tana Mongeau Relationship Odds

Proposition SBD’s Odds
Odds Paul/Mongeau get married in 2019 1/3
Odds Paul/Mongeau get divorced in 2019 2/1
Over/Under length of the Paul/Mongeau marriage 5.5 months
Odds Logan Paul is the best man if Paul/Mongeau get married 1/19
Odds Erika Costell attends the Paul/Mongeau wedding 50/1
Odds Bella Thorne attends the Paul/Mongeau wedding 99/1
Odds Deji attends the Paul/Mongeau wedding 300/1
Odds the Paul/Mongeau engagement is a publicity stunt 4/5

Will Paul and Mongeau Actually Get Married?

Oh probably. In order to make this look like less of a ruse, they probably realize that they’ll have to follow through with an actual wedding. Also, what better fodder for their next vlogs than their own nuptials?

Assuming the relationship is less than 100% on the level, they don’t strike me as the types that hold the institution of marriage in such high regard that they wouldn’t sign a few documents to make it all legal.

In order to make this look like less of a ruse, they probably realize that they’ll have to go through with an actual wedding.

Hold on a second, wouldn’t that potentially put their assets at risk in the divorce? Valid question, but a good pre-nup should calm those concerns!

Also, I’m not sure these lovebirds think that far ahead. You’ve probably heard that line about someone playing chess while the rest of the world is playing checkers. Well these two got confused by the rules to checkers and used the pieces to play Jenga instead.

They both lost.

How Long Will the Marriage Last?

I’m guessing until they hit the YouTube version of writer’s block and need new content ideas. If I know humans, the messy divorce vids will get even more views than the infatuated marriage clips.

Five-and-a-half months feels right.

Even if the whole thing is real and the couple is completely enamoured with each other, 5.5 months still feels right.

Paul is 22 years old and Mongeau is 21. They’ve been dating for all of two months. The number of things they don’t know about each other yet is in the thousands.

In all seriousness, Paul has been accused of emotional abuse by former partner Alissa Violet. He claims he’s learned from past mistakes …

… but his emotional immaturity is just one thing that could bring this budding romance to an abrupt halt.

The Guest List

If/when the Paul/Mongeau wedding takes place, the guestlist will become an intriguing topic. While they both have millions of loyal fans, Paul and Mongeau have also collected their fair share of enemies, frenemies, exes, and rivals.

Will they use the wedding as a chance to quash their outstanding beefs, to repair relationships with former flames, to build bridges over troubled social waters?

That would certainly show a level of personal growth. So probably not.

One of the longest shots for an invite is Paul’s former pugilistic nemesis, Deji, a British gamer. The two pounded on each other for five rounds back in August 2018 with Paul emerging victorious. In the aftermath, Deji called for a rematch, and Paul shut him down with extreme prejudice.

Don’t expect to see the Erika Costell at the wedding, either. That relationship isn’t exactly characterized by vitriol, but Paul once called the entire thing “fake” and compared it to the WWE.  He and Costell also staged a fake wedding during their time together. Having her altar-side at a wedding he wants people to think is real wouldn’t be a wise move.

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