Odds for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest: Will Joey Chestnut Win Again?
By Paul Lebowitz in Entertainment
Published:
- As America prepares for the 250th anniversary of its independence, celebrations and traditions will abound, not the least of which is the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in Coney Island, Brooklyn
- While competitive eating is a relatively new phenomenon, at least in a widespread way, this contest has become ingrained in the fabric of America, with all that entails
- Given the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest’s global popularity, it’s no surprise that prediction markets are offering users the opportunity to make their picks on who will win
Contrary to perception, the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest has existed in one form or another at the restaurant’s original location in Coney Island, Brooklyn, for more than 50 years. For context, it began before the New York Knicks’ previous NBA championship. Since the area is right by the beach, has an amusement park, and various attractions, it was the perfect place for Polish immigrant Nathan Handwerker to open his hot dog stand that evolved into an iconic brand, recognizable all over the globe. Handwerker lived long enough (he died in 1974) to see the seeds planted for today’s Super Bowl-style event for competitive eating.
He would undoubtedly be pleased and more than a little befuddled at the contest (d)evolving from seeing how many hot dogs a person could eat in one sitting to contestants not eating them as intended, instead following the innovative lead of the Tom Brady of competitive eating, Takeru Kobayashi, and dipping the buns in water while gobbling as many hot dogs as possible separately.
Regardless, the rules mandate consumption. The “how” is not a factor.
Kobayashi no longer competes in the contest because he didn’t want to sign exclusively with the sanctioning organization, Major League Eating.
The current champion is Joey Chestnut. He’s won every year but two since 2007. He lost in 2015 to Matt Stonie, but regained the title the next year, and started another dynasty that lasted until 2024, when he didn’t compete because he had a sponsorship dispute with MLE.
Chestnut won the contest again in 2025 and is the overwhelming favorite in 2026.
Still, as with any competitive event, there are no guarantees. Prediction markets are open for users to make their pick, whether it’s Chestnut or an upstart who dares challenge the dominant force in competitive eating.
Kalshi Odds for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest takes place on July 4th at the original Nathan’s Famous location in Coney Island, Brooklyn. ABC and ESPN2 will both show the event. The Women’s Championship will be at 10:45 AM ET. The Men’s Championship coverage will begin at noon ET on ESPN2, but the event starts and will be simulcast on ABC at 12:30 PM ET.
Volume for this market is extremely light at the moment, approaching $13,000. But it will assuredly rise as feeding time approaches.
As expected, Joey Chestnut is far head on the market with more than 90% of users picking him to win.
The only other competitor who is registering a percentage currently is James Webb. Webb, an Australian, came in third in 2025, having eaten 45.5 hot dogs and finishing just behind Patrick Bertoletti (46.5) and Chestnut (70.5). Webb is in the mid-single digits to win.
Other names listed include Bertoletti, Crazy Legs Conti, 6’9″ Gideon Oji, Jerome Burns, Max Stanford, Cameron Meade, and many more.
For those who want to take part in this market, the Kalshi referral code offers a $15 Sign-Up Bonus for new users once they have completed $10 in trades.
Since Chestnut is such a heavy favorite, there are other, er, appetizing markets available, including whether the men’s record will be broken and 76 hot dogs will be consumed; how many will be eaten; and the winner if it is not Chestnut.
With the contest itself, the rules stipulate that if the selected contestant wins the Men’s Division in the 2026 Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest, the market will resolve to Yes.
The outcome will be verified by ESPN, Fox Sports, Nathan’s Famous, and Major League Eating.
Will Joey Chestnut Win Again?
Joey Chestnut’s dominance in the world of competitive eating is unparalleled. Many contests and predictions — particularly in a niche but growing event like competitive eating — are based on name recognition. However, there are viable contenders who could dethrone the champion. It’s difficult to see being the case with Chestnut. But as the saying goes, that’s why they play the games.
For those who want to try for a massive profit by picking someone else while the overwhelming majority are picking Chestnut, Bertoletti consumed 58 in 2024 when he won the championship in the absence of Chestnut. While that could be categorized as a tainted win since he didn’t beat the champion, it wasn’t him who forced Chestnut out of the competition. In any contest, the competitors go against the field. They don’t get to choose.
Oji’s height of 6’9″ could be a factor, and he might be worth a glance.
In truth, who knows the ins and outs (literally) of this type of event? Apart from a qualified gastroenterologist, who can say? Kobayashi is a smaller-framed man. Chestnut is reasonably lean with the comparative jaw strength of a hippopotamus. When Kobayashi’s meteoric rise started, rotund competitors looked at him like, “What the &%@^# is this skinny guy doing?!” That began a run that was stopped by circumstances. The mantle was ultimately taken by Chestnut.
The easy pick in 2026 is Chestnut, but upsets happen. Will it be this year in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest? And who might it be?
Paul Lebowitz is a novelist, columnist, social commentator, and the author of eight published books on baseball – one novel and seven baseball guide/previews. He covers sports, politics, and pop culture. Paul graduated from Hunter College with a degree in English. He lives in New York City.
