Movie Odds: Oscar Nominations 2017

Awards season is upon us. This is the time of year when film studios start pushing with all of their marketing might to have their films recognized for an Oscar.

As of January 5th, voting for Oscar nominations is underway. Over the next week, votes will be cast and tabulated in order to create a shortlist of nominees in 24 different categories for the 89th Academy Awards, taking place on February 26th. The official nominees will be announced on January 24th and then the real fun begins as they all position themselves for a golden statue.

Last year, the perceived lack of diversity in the nominees led to the #OscarsSoWhite protest, an embarrassing development for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Hopefully that isn’t a problem again this year since films like Moonlight, Fences, and even Hidden Figures feature African Americans who deserve to be honored (not because of color but artistic merit).

Will they all make the Oscars shortlist? I set the odds on nominees in all of the major categories.

Every year there are a few surprises and snubs, but there are some films I can pretty much guarantee get a nod. Look for the likes of La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight to get official recognition. Another lock, in my books, is that this year’s show will get political again, which actually weighs heavily in our odds and predictions below. Remember these are just the odds of being nominated; we will make our official picks on January 24th once the official nominees are announced.


Odds to Be Nominated for a 2017 Oscar

La La Land – Photo Credit: Lionsgate Films

Best Picture

  • La La Land: 1/19
  • Manchester by the Sea: 1/19
  • Moonlight: 1/9
  • Arrival: 1/1
  • Fences: 1/1
  • Lion: 3/2
  • Hell or High Water: 2/1
  • Hacksaw Ridge: 2/1
  • Silence: 3/1
  • Jackie: 3/1
  • Hidden Figures: 4/1
  • Loving: 17/3
  • Sully: 9/1
  • Captain Fantastic: 19/1
  • 20th Century Women: 20/1
  • Patriot’s Day: 25/1

Best Director

  • Damien Chazelle (La La Land): 1/19
  • Barry Jenkins (Moonlight): 1/19
  • Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea): 1/9
  • Martin Scorsese (Silence): 2/1
  • Denzel Washington (Fences): 2/1
  • Denis Villeneuve (Arrival): 3/1
  • Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge): 4/1
  • Jeff Nichols (Loving): 5/1
  • David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water): 5/1
  • Garth Davis (Lion): 17/3
  • Pablo Larrain (Jackie): 17/3
  • Theodore Melfi (Hidden Figures): 9/1
  • Peter Berg (Patriot’s Day): 19/1

Best Actress

  • Natalie Portman (Jackie): 1/19
  • Emma Stone (La La Land): 1/19
  • Amy Adams (Arrival): 1/9
  • Isabelle Huppert (Elle): 3/2
  • Annette Bening (20th Century Women): 2/1
  • Ruth Negga (Loving): 2/1
  • Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins): 3/1
  • Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures): 4/1

Best Actor

  • Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea): 1/19
  • Denzel Washington (Fences): 1/19
  • Ryan Gosling (La La Land): 1/19
  • Andrew Garfield (Silence): 3/2
  • Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic): 2/1
  • Tom Hanks (Sully): 2/1
  • Joel Edgerton (Loving): 3/1
  • Michael Keaton (The Founder): 4/1
  • Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals): 5/1
  • Adam Driver (Paterson): 9/1

Best Supporting Actress

  • Viola Davis (Fences): 1/19
  • Naomie Harris (Moonlight): 1/19
  • Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea): 3/2
  • Nicole Kidman (Lion): 3/2
  • Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures): 2/1
  • Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women): 17/3
  • Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures): 9/1
  • Aja Naomi King (The Birth of a Nation): 19/1
  • Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls): 25/1

Best Supporting Actor

  • Mahershala Ali (Moonlight): 2/3
  • Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water): 1/1
  • Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea): 3/2
  • Dev Patel (Lion): 2/1
  • Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals): 2/1
  • Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins): 3/1
  • Issei Ogata (Silence): 17/3
  • Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures): 17/3
  • J.K. Simmons (Patriot’s Day): 9/1
  • Liam Neeson (Silence): 15/1
  • Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins): 15/1
  • Ben Foster (Hell or High Water): 25/1
  • Steve Martin (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk): 50/1

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Barry Jenkins  (Moonlight): 2/3
  • August Wilson (Fences): 2/3
  • Eric Heisserer (Arrival): 1/1
  • Luke Davies (Lion): 3/2
  • Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals): 2/1
  • Jay Cocks and Martin Scorsese (Silence): 3/1
  • Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi (Hidden Figures): 3/1
  • Whit Stillman (Love and Friendship): 4/1
  • Patrick Ness (A Monster Calls): 17/3
  • David Birke (Elle): 9/1
  • Andrew Knight and Robert Schenkkan (Hacksaw Ridge): 19/1
  • Jeff Nichols (Loving): 25/1

Best Original Screenplay

  • Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea): 2/3
  • Damien Chazelle (La La Land): 2/3
  • Taylor Sheridan (Hell or High Water): 2/3
  • Noah Oppenheim (Jackie): 2/1
  • Efthymis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos  (The Lobster): 3/1
  • Mike Mills (20th Century Women): 4/1
  • Matt Ross (Captain Fantastic): 9/1
  • Jared Bush and Phil Johnston (Zootopia): 9/1

Best Cinematography

  • Linus Sandgren (La La Land): 1/3
  • Bradford Young (Arrival): 1/3
  • Rodrigo Prieto (Silence): 1/3
  • James Laxton (Moonlight): 2/3
  • Stéphane Fontaine (Jackie): 3/1
  • Simon Duggan (Hacksaw Ridge): 3/1
  • Seamus McGarvey (Nocturnal Animals): 17/3
  • Robert Richardson (Live By Night): 9/1
  • Roger Deakins (Hail, Caesar!): 9/1
  • Vittorio Storaro (Cafe Society): 19/1
  • Greig Fraser (Lion): 19/1
  • Adam Arkapaw (The Light Between Oceans): 25/1
  • Mandy Walker (Hidden Figures): 25/1

Best Song

  • City of Stars (La La Land): 2/1
  • How Far I’ll Go (Moana): 2/1
  • The Fools Who Dream (La La Land): 3/1
  • Can’t Stop the Feeling (Trolls): 4/1
  • Runnin’ (Hidden Figures): 5/1
  • Try Everything (Zootopia): 5/1
  • Drive It Like You Stole It (Sing Street): 17/3
  • Faith (Sing): 9/1
  • Gold (Gold): 10/1
  • Letter to the Free (13th): 15/1
  • I See a Victory (Hidden Figures): 25/1
  • We Know the Way (Moana): 25/1

Best Animated Feature

  • Zootopia: 1/19
  • Kubo and the Two Strings: 1/19
  • Moana: 1/1
  • Finding Dory: 1/1
  • The Red Turtle: 2/1
  • My Life as a Zucchini: 17/3
  • Sing: 9/1
  • Sausage Party: 10/1
  • The Little Prince: 10/1

Best Documentary

  • O.J.: Made in America: 2/1
  • 13th: 2/1
  • I Am Not Your Negro: 3/1
  • Cameraperson: 3/1
  • The Eagle Huntress: 4/1
  • Gleason: 5/1
  • The Ivory Game: 5/1
  • Life, Animated: 17/3
  • Fire at Sea: 17/3
  • Tower: 9/1
  • Weiner: 9/1
  • Zero Days: 15/1
  • The Witness: 15/1

Best Foreign Film

  • Toni Erdmann: 1/19
  • The Salesman: 1/1
  • A Man Called Ove: 2/1
  • Land of Mine: 2/1
  • My Life as a Zucchini: 3/1
  • Paradise:17/3
  • The King’s Choice: 9/1
  • Tanna: 15/1
  • It’s Only the End of the World: 15/1

Feature Photo: A24