The Late Show with Stephen Colbert Favored to Win at Emmys: Trade it on Prediction Markets

• The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards are scheduled for Sept. 14 at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, CA
• Law & Order: Special Victims Unit star Mariska Hargitay will host; the show starts at 8 PM ET and will air on NBC and Peacock
• One of the most active markets is the Emmy Winner: Outstanding Variety Series, with The Late Show with Stephen Colbert leading the pack; prediction markets offer users options to trade on winners of various awards

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On Sunday, Sept. 14, 2026, the 78th Primetime Emmys will take place at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, CA. Hosted by Mariska Hargitay, it is the pinnacle of awards shows for television shows and performers. One of the most prominent awards is the Outstanding Variety Series. The 2026 nominees are The Late Show with Stephen Colbert; Last Week Tonight with John Oliver; Jimmy Kimmel Live!; The Daily Show; and Saturday Night Live.

Universally, these programs offer famous guests, comedy routines, and political and social commentary. The voting often reflects more than the shows themselves and extends into voters’ individual belief systems. That makes it one of the more interesting categories since it goes beyond simple entertainment quality and perceptions of it.

With this and other categories at the Emmys, there is substantial attention being paid to which show will win. Prediction markets are looking closely at the Emmys and offering users the chance to weigh in on what they think will happen and potentially profit.

Stephen Colbert Leads Markets for the Emmy for Outstanding Variety Series

Market volume will soon hit $250K.

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert is far ahead of the pack with more than 80% of users picking it to take home the Emmy.

Next is an unusual option with a tie at 20%.

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver is at 5%. Jimmy Kimmel Live! at 4%, Saturday Night Live, and The Daily Show are not currently registering.

For those who want to make a pick, the Kalshi referral code offers a $25 bonus for new users after making $25 in trades.

The rules stipulate that the market will resolve to Yes if the selection wins the Outstanding Variety Series at the 78th Emmy Awards. The outcome will be verified by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences.

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert

Stephen Colbert has everything the Emmys look for when picking award winners. He is popular among his target audience; he does social commentary with sufficient comedic undertones that he could technically claim plausible deniability when called on for what he’s said or done; he seems to be in line with general Hollywood sensibilities when it comes to political takes; and he has the sympathy vote because his CBS show was canceled in what many believe was retribution for his criticism of the network’s parent company Paramount and pressure from the Trump administration.

Any or all of that being true, half-true, partially true, or not true at all is irrelevant. Colbert has won Emmys in the past for his work on The Daily Show, The Colbert Report, and The Late Show.

For its part, Paramount and CBS claim that canceling Colbert’s show was strictly due to financial concerns.

Regardless, Colbert is far ahead on the prediction markets and is the heavy favorite to take home the Emmy.

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

Like Colbert, John Oliver is a Daily Show alum. Last Week Tonight airs on HBO and is somewhat edgier than Colbert’s program. Oliver goes into well-crafted and extended rants regarding the hypocrisies of everyday life. Much of his show centers on politics, but he also talks about current events in general, people in the public eye, and social issues.

Since it is a weekly show and not a nightly show, it is less of a part of a routine than Colbert’s program was. He has not gotten the attention and the vitriol of the targets of his satire, which, in a strange way, could become a net negative in his hopes to win an Emmy.

His show is in the mid-single digits to win but, for some reason, it is well behind a tie in the prediction market.

The Daily Show

The Daily Show has become ingrained in the zeitgeist, with many people treating it as more credible than the actual news it openly pillories. It’s something of a surprise that it is not registering higher in the prediction markets to win the Emmy.

Host Jon Stewart has tried to counsel people by saying (paraphrasing), “It’s a fake news show!” while simultaneously making poignant and well-researched commentaries that do not solely attack the current presidential administration, but also lampoon the opposing party for its ineffectual tactics and self-destructive tendencies.

It will not win, but it might be above the others in the pecking order of achieving its ends.

Jimmy Kimmel Live!

Kimmel was also under siege from the Trump administration, and the show was pulled from the air with the expectation that it would be canceled before an enraged public demanded Jimmy Kimmel Live! be put back on ABC. He has inarguably crossed the line of good taste several times and said things that were offensive not just to the stationary target, President Donald J. Trump, but his voters as well. He will not engender the sympathy Colbert will, and the show only garners similar attention to the others when Kimmel says something to get into trouble.

In the prediction market for the Emmy for Outstanding Variety Series, it is obviously Colbert’s to lose. Given the circumstances of his ouster and the challenges the competitors face with voters, it’s nearly assured that The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, now defunct, will take home the Emmy.