Donald Trump Impeachment Odds: Will Republicans Continue to Stand by their Man?

Stormy Daniels - the Trump scandal that just keeps getting worse.
Stormy Daniels - the Trump scandal that just keeps getting worse. Photo by Donkey Hotey (Flickr) [CC License].
  • John Dowd is out and Rudy Giuliani is in. How will the legal team shake-up affect Trump?
  • More skeletons have been uncovered in Michael Cohen’s closet — and they could implicate Trump!
  • The Stormy Daniels saga continues. What’s next?

Hoo boy, it’s time to update the odds on the Trump Impeachment Tracker!

The Trump team has managed to dig themselves even deeper into the Stormy Daniels mess, the Russia investigation rolls on despite Trump’s protests, and the November midterms could hand the Democrats the House and enable them to impeach the President. Oh, and Donald Trump is now in the running for a Nobel Peace Prize.

Strange times make for strange props. Let’s consider the new and improved odds.

Impeachment Update

  • The Russia investigation continues but Republicans are still standing by their man
  • A Blue wave in the midterms could lead to impeachment
 Will Donald Trump be impeached before the end of his first term? Odds Implied Probability
YES 7/13 65%

There are two things to watch when it comes to Trump’s impeachment: the upcoming midterms and the Russia investigation. Neither paint a rosy picture for the president.

Michael Cohen, Trump’s longtime personal lawyer, is currently under investigation by federal prosecutors and has had his home and office raided. His ties to Russian oligarchs were recently unearthed and the Stormy Daniels quagmire is growing by the week. If Cohen flips, Trump is in for a wild ride. Meanwhile, Robert Mueller is closing in on Trump’s inner circle and may soon sit down with the man himself. These are nervous times on the Russia front.

Over at Congress, things aren’t much better. The Republicans have failed to stem the rise of Roy Moore-esque candidates in both the House and Senate. That is, politicians who appeal to a very vocal and highly mobilized faction of the Republican base, but not the broader electorate. We’ve seen Congressional Republicans retiring in record numbers, partly because they feel their reelection races are unwinnable.

If the Democrats take back the House, Trump’s chances of being impeached will spike. A lot still needs to happen before Trump is at serious risk. The current odds seem a little too short.

Midterm Mania

  • Will a Blue Wave wash through Congress in November?
  • Maybe, but the Democrats have a tough fight ahead of them
Odds Democrats claim a majority in the… Odds
House 1/2
Senate 7/4

A Blue Wave is expected to wash through the House, which explains why so many Republicans are abandoning ship. As it stands, 43 House Republicans are either retiring, running for another office or resigning. Chief among the deserters is House speaker Paul Ryan, who suddenly realized the importance of family. Democrats need to flip 24 seats to reclaim the majority, and if the recent special election results are a hint of what’s to come, their chances are good.

43 House Republicans are either retiring, running for another office or resigning.

Picking up the Senate is the far greater challenge. While the Democrats only need to make a net gain of two seats, the electoral deck is heavily stacked against them. Republicans have far more opportunities to make gains than the Dems, even if the momentum continues to shift away from them.

Pick the favorites for both chambers. It looks like the Democrats will seize control of the House while the Republicans hold onto the Senate.

Storm Watch

  • Stormy Daniels continues to dominate the headlines
  • A revelation from Rudy Giuliani has forced the White House to backtrack and change its story
 Prop Odds
Michael Cohen is charged with a felony 2/3
Rudy Giuliani is fired or resigns as Trump’s lawyer 2/1
Donald Trump admits to an affair with Stormy 20/1

The Stormy Daniels fiasco rages on and the Trump team is only making matters worse. Michael Cohen is currently under federal investigation and may have violated campaign financing laws after personally paying off the former porn actress. Now it’s been revealed that the former Trump lawyer may have been a conduit for shady foreign money intended for the President.

Rudy Giuliani added fuel to the fire when he contradicted Trump and admitted that the President was aware of the hush money settlement.

Rudy Giuliani added fuel to the fire when he contradicted Trump and admitted that the President was aware of the hush money settlement and had already paid Cohen the $130,000 in multiple secret instalments. Now he’s suggesting that the President may have paid off more women. How many Scaramuccis (10 days) will Giuliani last?

Trump still maintains that he did not have sex with Stormy Daniels. Rather, he paid off the adult actress to prevent the lie from getting out. Sure… let’s see if he changes his tune on that one as well.

Nobel Peace Prize

  • Step 1: threatened to wipe North Korea off the face of the earth; Step 2: ???; Step 3: win Nobel Peace Prize
  • It may sound crazy, but it may be more likely than you think
Odds Trump is awarded a Nobel Peace Prize before the end of his first term? Odds
YES 2/1

Donald Trump threatened “fire and fury” on North Korea, and now he’s at 2/1 odds to receive the Nobel Peace Prize for formally bringing an end to the Korean war. It may seem absurd, but two of the four other living Presidents are Nobel laureates and the prize has been awarded to some very questionable individuals in the past.

It may seem absurd, but two of the four other living Presidents are Nobel laureates.

I wouldn’t count on the Norwegian Nobel Committee selecting Trump, though. Especially at 2/1 odds, there’s not much value here.