Euro Betting – Germany, Italy Set for Epic Clash

Germany (+125) vs Italy (+300), Draw (+200)

The best quarterfinal matchup of Euro 2016 will see the World Cup champs, Germany (3-0-1), against arguably the most impressive team in the tournament to date, Italy (3-1-0). The two superpowers will collide this Saturday at Nouveau Stade Bordeaux in Bordeaux (July 2nd, 3:00 PM Eastern) with a spot in the semis on the line.

Germany were one of the favorites to win the tournament at the outset and they haven’t done anything to lose that status, winning two of three matches in the Group Stage (plus a 0-0 draw against Poland) and then routing Slovakia (3-0) in the Round of 16.  The win over Slovakia was their best performance of the tournament so far; they looked like a well-oiled machine on offense and calm and composed on defense.

Young winger Julian Draxler was the player of the game for the Germans. The 22-year-old emerged as the playmaker that Joachim Low has been looking for over the last two weeks. If he keeps the same level against Italy, the Germans will have an excellent shot of advancing.

Draxler sealed the outcome with a goal in the 63rd minute after Jerome Boateng (8′) and Mario Gomez (43′) staked Germany to a 2-0 first-half lead.

Putting three past Slovakia will have the Germans feeling confident after only scoring three total in the Group Stage. But don’t expect a similar offensive outburst on Saturday. The Italians have kept three clean sheets in four games; only Ireland was able to score on the Azzurri, and that came in the last game of the round-robin when Italy was effectively fielding a “B team.”

Despite winning their group, Italy were forced to meet defending champion Spain in the Round of 16. They emerged with a 2-0 and played a nearly flawless game, pressuring the Spanish midfield into mistakes and then attacking a disorganized defense.

At this point, it’s safe to say that no coach has prepared his team better than Antonio Conte. His strong defensive tactics were able to quell the usually potent attacks of both Spain and Belgium.

Against Germany, I expect the Italians to again pressure the middle of the field. If they force the same mistakes they did against Spain, they have a solid chance at the upset. That said, I expect the German midfield to be more composed than Spain’s. I think there’s a good chance this game stays level over 120 minutes and goes to penalties, so there’s value in the draw.

Pick: Draw (+200).

(Photo Credit: Jimmy Baikovicius, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Wikimedia Commons.)