2020 3M Open Round 4 Odds and Betting Preview

• Richy Werenski and Michael Thompson share the 54-hole lead at the 3M Open
• Charl Schwartzel is two shots back and is looking for his 16th career worldwide victory
• See the updated live odds at TPC Twin Cities heading into Sunday’s final round

54 holes are in the books at the 3M Open from TPC Twin Cities and it’s a pair of pre-tournament long shots that are tied for the lead. Richy Werenski and Michael Thompson, who opened at +10000 and +11000 respectively, are two shots clear of Tony Finau and former Masters champion Charl Schwartzel heading into Sunday’s Final round.

Live 3M Open Odds

Odds taken July 25th.

Top of the Board

Forgive me for not wanting to rush to the window to bet either of one of the leaders on Sunday. They’ve combined to gain 11.67 strokes putting through the first three rounds, and that’s simply not sustainable. Werenski has never won on Tour, and has just one top-five finish since November of 2018.

Birdies started dropping at the end of the day. Need more in the final round! @3MOpen pic.twitter.com/GvVk4sT9mT

— Richy Werenski (@werenskir) July 25, 2020

The 28-year-old started his third round slowly, playing the first 14 holes at even par, only to rattle off three birdies on the final four holes. Another slow start on Sunday will likely keep him from contending, as most of the players within striking distance have a higher pedigree and much more experience hunting titles.

Thompson on the other hand, did win at Honda in 2013, but has just one top-five finish since November of 2015, and that came at an alternate event (Barbasol). He is striking the ball better than Werenski, having gained 7.38 shots on approach this week, but he started to show cracks on Saturday coming down the stretch.

Tee shot – 💦
Third shot – 🏖️
Clutch par save. 💪

Michael Thompson is tied for the 54-hole lead at the @3MOpen.#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/n6baFQTgEg

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 25, 2020

He allowed a four-shot lead over Werenski to be erased over the final four holes, and was extremely fortunate to save par on 18. It’s hard to justify betting either one of these players at their short odds, and it really feels like the winner of this tournament is going to storm the leaders on Sunday.

What About Charl?

Last week prior to the Memorial, Charl Schwartzel said his game was “really” close. Of course, he promptly went out and missed the cut, but maybe he was on to something. The former Masters champions and two-time PGA Tour winner is gaining strokes in all facets of his game this week, ranking fifth in strokes gained tee-to-green through three rounds.

From 34 feet. 🦅@CA_Schwartzel is now three back.#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/wuLZGxW3CP

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 25, 2020

He made four birdies and an eagle in the third round, and narrowly missed holing out for eagle on 18 and being one shot closer. +900 is a great price for a guy just two back, with 15 career worldwide victories on his resume.

Best Live Value Picks at the 3M Open

1. Cameron Tringale (+3300): Fired a 8-under 63 in Round 3 to vault himself back into contention. He gained a ridiculous 4.7 strokes on approach and 2.68 strokes on the greens, and if that continues we can expect another low round on Sunday.
2. Ryan Moore (+2800): Ball striking has been on point all week, ranking third in strokes gained approach and tee-to-green. He fired a bogey-free 67 on Saturday and has history of success on the big stage with five career Tour victories.
3. Harris English (+2000): Poured in eight birdies for the second straight day on Saturday and already owns four top-six finishes this season. If his excellent iron play and hot putter continue, he could wind up with his third career win by the time this tournament is over.