2022 Honda Classic 4th Round Odds, Predictions and Preview

• Daniel Berger is an overwhelming favorite to win the Honda Classic after three rounds
• Berger is five shots clear of four golfers, and will look to capture his first title since the 2021 Pebble Beach Pro-Am
• See the updated odds below for Sunday’s final round

Carnage was promised prior to the start of the Honda Classic, and so far the tournament has lived up to its billing. Four of the top-nine pre-tournament favorites failed to make the cut, and only 18 players are below par after 54 holes. Just 13 golfers broke par on Saturday, while two players failed to break 80.

One of those players who shot under par in the 3rd round was Daniel Berger, who carded a 69. That followed back-to-back rounds of 65 on Thursday and Friday, and he’ll take a commanding five shot lead into the final round.

Updated 2022 Honda Classic Odds

Odds as of Feb. 26th at DraftKings

A group of four players, including 2019 Open Champion Shane Lowry are tied for second, but it’s going to take a serious letdown by Berger for someone else to raise the trophy on Sunday.

Excludes MA.

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Berger Barely Breaking a Sweat

While players are posting huge numbers left, right and center at PGA National this week, Berger has played nearly flawless golf. He’s made just two bogeys all week, which is incredible given this is one of the toughest courses the Tour plays all season.

He’s flashed a complete game all week, putting to bed the questions about his recent back injury. He ranks second in the field for the week in strokes gained tee to green, third in ball striking and on approach, and seventh in putting.

Daniel Berger’s five-stroke lead is the largest 54-hole lead on the PGA TOUR since Jon Rahm at the 2021 Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (6/WD).

— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) February 26, 2022

His five stroke lead feels insurmountable given how well he’s playing, and history is also on his side. Seven of the past eight golfers to take a five stroke lead into the final round have gone on to win the tournament, with the lone exception being Jon Rahm at last year’s Memorial. For those who don’t remember, Rahm was forced to withdraw after the 3rd round due to a positive COVID test.

Your leader at -11 under. Daniel Berger #HondaClassic pic.twitter.com/DqlCXqBI2H

— Jorge Andrés (@Jorge_Andres_TV) February 26, 2022

Still, you won’t find me betting on him at -400. Sure, he’s likely to cruise to victory, but the opportunity cost at that price simply isn’t worth it. Golf is a volatile sport, and just last month we saw Russell Henley blow a five-stroke lead on the back nine on Sunday in the final round of the Sony Open.

2022 Honda Classic Live Value Picks

1. Shane Lowry (+1000): He fired the best round of the day on Saturday, carding a 3-under 67. That’s back-to-back 67’s for the Irishman who absolutely excels on tough courses. In addition to his win at Royal Portrush in 2019, he’s also claimed victory at Firestone, and has multiple top-nine finishes at the U.S. Open. He ranks fifth in both strokes gained tee to green and ball striking this week, and eighth in strokes gained off the tee.
2. Adam Svensson (+4000): The next best value on the board has to be Svensson. He leads the field this week in ball striking and strokes gained tee to green, but has been let down by his putter. He ranks 69th out of 73 players who made the cut this week in strokes gained putting, which is the only reason he’s not higher up on the leaderboard. He shot 65 on Friday, hitting all 18 greens in regulation, and it’s going to take a similar effort on Sunday if he wants to claim his first win on Tour.