2022 Masters Sleepers and Longshot Picks
- The 2022 Masters from Augusta National begins on Thursday (April 7)
- Patrick Cantlay is a screaming value in the outright market at +2500
- Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets
It’s Masters week, aka the biggest and most prestigious golf tournament on the planet. Odds for this event have been available for months, but they’ve seen a ton of movement over the past few weeks creating some serious value in the outright and top finishing position markets.
Golf’s elite will begin their pursuit of the Green Jacket on Thursday (April 7), and we’re banking on a couple prominent trends to continue in our sleepers and longshots betting card.
2022 Masters Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Win | Top-10 Odds | Top-20 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cantlay | +2500 | +225 | -115 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | +4500 | +350 | +130 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +6500 | +500 | +200 |
| Patrick Reed | +8000 | +600 | +230 |
Odds as of April 4th at DraftKings.
Six of the past seven winners had a T-5 finish earlier in the calendar year prior to the Masters, while proficient green in regulation and scrambling numbers have consistently showed up among the winners of this event.
Cash In with Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay is the fifth highest ranked player in the world so it comes as a surprise he’s priced so long. He boasts +2500 odds to win the Masters, which is the 12th shortest price on the board. Cantlay was the only player in the field to rank inside the top-20 last season in GIR percentage and scrambling, and has three top-4 results already in 2022.
What. A. Shot.@Patrick_Cantlay sticks it from the sand on the 72nd hole. pic.twitter.com/Igt4mQYlXl
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 13, 2022
Cantlay is fresh off an ugly missed cut at the Players Championship, which isn’t ideal, but we can overlook that performance considering the following: He’s won twice since the last Major Championship was contested, and has gained at least 9.3 total strokes in three of his past five measured events.
That spin though … 🔄@Patrick_Cantlay dials in the approach at No. 17. pic.twitter.com/XhHP27OLwa
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 20, 2022
He has two top-17 finishes at Augusta since 2018, and was the tournament leader on the back-nine on Sunday for a stretch in 2019.
At the end of the day, this is your reigning FedEX Cup champion but he’s priced as if he’s no longer a top-10 player in the world. Take the value on his outright odds immediately.
Pick: Patrick Cantlay to Win (+2500)
Oosthuizen a Top-10 Machine
Louis Oosthuizen didn’t quite fall inside the top-20 in GIR percentage and scrambling last season, but he was one of just eight golfers in the field to rank inside the top-50 in both categories.
Most strokes gained approach per round at The Masters since 2015 (min. 10 rounds)
Jordan Spieth, 1.17
Louis Oosthuizen, 0.92
Corey Conners, 0.90
Hideki Matsuyama, 0.89
Paul Casey, 0.88— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) April 1, 2022
Oosthuizen saves his best performances for Majors each and every season, and while he has just one Major trophy in his case, he does own a plethora of top-10 results.
Last season alone, the South African finished T3 or better in three of the four Majors. He owns 11 top-10 Major finishes in total, including a runner-up result to Bubba Watson at the Masters in 2012 when he lost in a playoff.
Louis Oosthuizen: only player in men's golf history with 6 runner-up finishes in majors and either 1 or 0 wins
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) June 21, 2021
A quick look at his recent form tells us he’s ripe to contend yet again, as he sits top-22 in this field in strokes gained off the tee, short game and around the green, as well as total scoring. I wouldn’t waste an outright ticket on him, but I can’t get to the window fast enough to bet his T-10/T-20 numbers.
Pick: Louis Oosthuizen Top-10 Finish (+350)
Top 20 Value Picks
- Joaquin Niemann (+200): He’s already conquered an elite field this year winning at the Genesis and ranks top-eight over the past three months in strokes gained tee-to-green, off the tee, approach and around the green. Those last two categories are of particular interest since they are directly correlated with GIR percentage and scrambling. Last time out he finished 22nd at the Players, and was also sixth earlier in the year at the Farmers. Needless to say he’s been thriving at Golf’s most difficult venues.
- Patrick Reed (+230): Speaking of golfers who play their best when conditions are tough, Patrick Reed is showing signs of life again. The 2018 Masters champ finished top-26 at the Players in his last start and has phenomenal course history at Augusta National. In addition to his victory, he also owns two consecutive top-10 results at the Masters.
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
