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2022 PGA Tour Mexico Open at Vidanta Odds and Picks

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Apr 25, 2022 · 7:10 AM PDT

Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm, of Spain, watches his tee shot on the fourth hole during the third round at the Masters golf tournament on Saturday, April 9, 2022, in Augusta, Ga. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)
  • The Mexico Open at Vidanta tees off Thursday, April 28th
  • Jon Rahm is the heavy +400 favorite over Daniel Berger
  • We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

The PGA Tour heads to Vallarta, Mexico this week for a brand new event, the Mexico Open at Vidanta. It replaces the former World Golf Championships event from Club de Golf Chapultepec. With it not being a WGC Championship, the field is decidedly weaker, as Jon Rahm and Abraham Ancer are the only two players in the top 20 of the world rankings teeing it up.

This is the first event for Rahm since he tied for 27th at the Masters, and he’s joined by other major champions in Patrick Reed, Gary Woodland and Graeme McDowell. Other notable names include  Tony Finau and Kevin Na.

With the field not as deep as some other tournaments, it means Rahm is a big time favorite, and it allows other players who might find it tougher to break through a chance to secure their first PGA Tour title.

2022 Mexico Open at Vidanta Odds

Golfers Odds
Jon Rahm +350
Cameron Tringale +2000
Gary Woodland +2000
Kevin Na +2000
Abraham Ancer +2000
Tony Finau +2500
Sebastian Munoz +2500
Chris Kirk +3500
Aaron Wise +4000
Patrick Reed +4000
Brendon Todd +4500
Doug Ghim +5500
Kevin Streelman +6000
CT Pan +6000
Charles Howell III +6000
Adam Long +6500
Nick Taylor +6500
Matt Jones +6500
Greyson Sigg +6500
Aaron Rai +7000

Odds as of April 25th at DraftKings.


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Gary Woodland Close to Another Championship

Gary Woodland has very nearly won for the first time his 2019 US Open a few times in 2022, namely the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he led with two holes to play in the final round. That ended up as a T-5 finish, which he’d done in his previous start before Bay Hill at the Honda Classic. Prior to his missed cut at the Masters, he was T-8 at the Valero and T-21 at the Valspar.

Subsequently, his ‘strokes gained’ stats in the last 24 rounds have been outstanding.

Gary Woodland’s Strokes Gained Stats Last 24 Rounds

Approach Total Tee-To-Green Putting Ball Striking Short Game
1 3 6 6 8 8

Jon Rahm is obviously by far and away the best option this week, but at +400 those odds are far too low to stomach a wager on. Looking down the board is the better play.

Given that there aren’t a plethora of quality options in this field, Gary Woodland at +2200 with his major championship pedigree and recent form has decent value.

2022 Mexico Open at Vidanta Best Value Picks

  1. Sebastian Munoz (+3000): Sebastian Munoz has one PGA Tour triumph to his credit, which came at the 2019 Sanderson Farms Championship. Since then, he’s had a couple other brushes with contention, namely a third at the RSM Classic and a T-4 at the ZOZO Championship in the early part of the season. He’s good-not-great in his last six events, making every cut and placing 26th or better in four of them. Second in SG: off-the-tee, third ball striking and fourth tee-to-green in last 24 rounds.
  2. Patrick Reed (+4000): Though Patrick Reed hasn’t been superb in 2022, he’s started to shown signs of a revival in his last three tournaments, where he was inside the top-35 in those instances. In the last eight rounds, he’s second in strokes gained putting and twelfth in total strokes gained. Won in Mexico two years ago at the WGC-Mexico Championship.
  3. Cameron Champ (+7000): The PGA Tour’s driving distance leader Cameron Champ is an all-or-nothing type golfer. He hadn’t done much at all this season until he tied for tenth in his last start at the Masters. Against a diluted field, this +7000 number is intriguing because he does have three PGA Tour titles to his credit in the last five years, the most recent being the 2021 3M Open.
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