Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds, Picks & Predictions

• The Arnold Palmer Invitational from Bay Hill, Florida tees off Thursday, March 2nd
• Jon Rahm is the +650 favorite over Rory McIlroy and defending champion Scottie Scheffler
• Below, see the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds to win, plus picks and the best-value bets

After Chris Kirk won the Honda Classic in a playoff, he and the worlds best head to famed Bay Hil Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is the fourth ‘designated event’ of 2023, and it features a star studded group with 43 of the top-50 players competing (the other seven are playing on the LIV golf tour).

Bay Hill provides a stern test for the best golfers on the planet, with 5-under-par the winning score last year by Scottie Scheffler. The last three champions and seven of the last nine have won by just a single stroke. Curiously, there hasn’t been a playoff at the API since 1999. The winner of this prestigious event will take home a cool $3.6 million, up from $2.16M last year.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds

Jon Rahm, who has three victories in five tour starts in 2023, is the betting favorite at +650. He’s followed by 2018 winner Rory McIlroy, and defending champion Scottie Scheffler. Kirk, who won the Honda Classic for his fifth tour title, is +6000.

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Odds as of February 27th at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Scottie Scheffler The Defending Champion

Just two starts ago, Scottie Scheffler displayed his ability to win an event in back-to-back years, as he won the WM Phoenix Open as one of the tours designated events. He’s searching to do that again this year, having outlasted the field in brutal conditions to win a year ago.

Scottie Scheffler’s Strokes Gained Stats In Last 24 Rounds

On the campaign, Scheffler is tops in bogey avoidance, and second in greens in regulation, which will be pivotal on such a challenging track. He’s also second in SG: off-the-tee, yet curiously has been rather pedestrian on the greens, at least statistically. However, in his latest triumph in Phoenix, he made several clutch putts on the back nine, showing that stats don’t always tell the full story. The defending champ is +1000 to win again, which is longer odds than the top-two players on the board.

Past Five Arnold Palmer Invitational Winners

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks and Value Bets

1. Collin Morikawa (+2000): Collin Morikawa has been trending in the right direction in 2023, as he started it with a second place result at the Sentry TOC. Since then, he’s posted a third at the Farmers Insurance Open and T-6th at the Genesis Invitational. He’s eighth in both total strokes gained and approaching the green on the campaign.
2. Tyrrell Hatton (+4000): Tyrrell Hatton won this event in 2020 and very nearly did it again last year, where he was runner-up. Hatton also has a T-4th here in 2017. In the last twelve rounds at the API, he’s tops in total strokes gained and tee-to-green.
3. Rickie Fowler (+8000): Rickie Fowler has seen a resurgence in his game, with a T-6th and a runner-up late last year. In his last three starts, he’s put together top-20 results, including the last two designated events. In the last twelve rounds, Fowler is fourth in strokes gained: approach. He’ll be an interesting player to monitor in the top 5/10/20 markets.