- An elite field of 78 players will tee it up Thursday at TPC Southwind for the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
- Paul Casey, one of the game’s best ball strikers is +7500 to win the tournament, and +600 to finish inside the top-10
- Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite longshot plays
Prior to last week’s 3M open, there had been a consistent theme surrounding the PGA Tour’s last five winners. Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Byrson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa and Jon Rahm were all priced 30-1 or shorter prior to the tournament they went on to win.
Well, the longshot drought was snapped in Minnesota, as Michael Thompson took home the title after going off on Thursday at +11000 odds.
Back in the winner's circle! 🏆
Michael Thompson has won the @3MOpen.
This is his first victory in 167 starts. pic.twitter.com/SGKsYdRtRX
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 26, 2020
Next up on the PGA Tour schedule is the WGC St. Jude FedEx Invitational from TPC Southwind, and our goal is to find a few more names that can cash a big ticket for you this weekend.
WGC St. Jude FedEx Invitational Odds
|Golfer||To Win Odds||Top-10 Odds||Top-20 Odds at FanDuel|
Odds taken July 28th.
Horschel is a Course Horse
Billy Horschel started slow after the restart, but has rebounded nicely with solid results in consecutive tournaments. He finished 13th and 7th in back-to-back events at Muirfield Village (Memorial and Workday Charity Open), gaining a combined 7.5 strokes tee-to-green and 9.9 strokes with the putter.
— Billy Horschel (@BillyHo_Golf) July 20, 2020
Horschel, a five-time winner on Tour, finished 9th here last year and has a sparkling track record at TPC Southwind. He has five top-10 finishes in seven appearances at this course, including a fourth in 2017. TPC Southwind clearly fits his eye and the Bermuda greens just happen to be his preferred putting surface.
Pick: Billy Horschel to Win (+5000)
Can’t Fade Casey at this Price
Everybody is down on Paul Casey and it’s easy to see why. The Englishman has missed the cut in back-to-back events and simply cannot putt. He lost over six strokes putting last week, and made just over 28-feet worth of putts in his second round at the 3M Open. Think about that for a minute. That’s just over 1.5 feet per putt made. I’m not sure the last time we’ve seen a performance so putrid on the greens by a pro.
The books are really challenging many people who put Paul Casey on their 'list' this week. Opening at 100/1 in some points.
— Sal Vetri (@SalVetriDFS) July 27, 2020
But as everyone knows putting is extremely volatile, and Casey is one of the world’s best ball strikers. He ranks sixth in strokes gained approach on Tour this season, and has gained off the tee and on approach in all but one event in 2020. He’s going to keep giving himself as many birdie looks as anyone in the field, and eventually the ball is going to find the hole.
Pick: Paul Casey Top-10 Finish (+600)
Poulter and Hughes Undervalued in the T-20 Market
Speaking of Englishmen, another one who has favorable odds this week is Ian Poulter. The savvy vet has a pair of top-14 finishes since the restart and has fantastic course history at TPC Southwind. He finished 8th here last year, 10th in 2018 and 6th in 2016.
Ian Poulter Course History at TPC Southwind Last Four Years
|WGC – St. Jude||2019||8||7.0|
|WGC – St. Jude||2018||10||6.6|
|FedEx St. Jude Classic||2017||31||4.5|
|FedEx St. Jude Classic||2016||6||10.1|
He’s one of the game’s best putters and a fantastic long iron player. More approach shots come from between 150-200 yards at TCP Southwind than any other proximity range, and Poulter ranks 14th out the 78 man field from that distance.
Another player who excels on the greens is Mackenzie Hughes. The Canadian ranks second in the field in strokes gained putting since the restart, and is fresh off a sixth place finish at the Memorial.
A ridiculous birdie putt from Mackenzie Hughes at the Travelers Championship. pic.twitter.com/AtEGeS6iRK
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) June 28, 2020
He was third at the Travelers at the end of June and second at the Honda in March. His game has never been sharper and now is the time to pounce on his attractive T-20 odds.
Picks: Ian Pouler (+300) and Mackenzie Hughes (+430) Top-20 Finish
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