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BMW Championship Picks, Predictions & Odds

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Updated Aug 14, 2023 · 8:07 AM PDT

Patrick Cantlay hits a shot from the fairway
Aug 13, 2023; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Patrick Cantlay hits his second shot on the 17th hole during the final round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
  • The BMW Championship from Olympia Fields, Illinois tees off Thursday, August 17th
  • Scottie Scheffler is the +650 favorite over Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm
  • See the 2023 BMW Championship odds, picks, and best value bets below

After Lucas Glover won for the second consecutive week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the PGA Tour heads to famed Olympia Fields Country Club for the BMW Championship. Only the top-50 on the FedEx Cup points standings have qualified for the second leg of the three-part playoffs. After this event, the top-30 qualify for the season finale Tour Championship.

Jon Rahm is in the pole position in the standings, ahead of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Glover, who has vaulted all the way up to fourth. This venue last hosted a men’s major in 2003, won by Jim Furyk, and the Women’s PGA Championship in 2017 (Danielle Kang). It also was the course for the dramatic playoff victory by Jon Rahm in 2020 for the BMW Championship, where he won a playoff over Dustin Johnson. The winning score that week was 4-under-par.

2023 BMW Championship Odds

Golfers Odds
Scottie Scheffler +650
Rory McIlroy +700
Jon Rahm +850
Patrick Cantlay +1000
Xander Schauffele +1600
Viktor Hovland +1600
Tommy Fleetwood +1800
Tyrrell Hatton +2200
Collin Morikawa +2200
Jordan Spieth +2500
Max Homa +2500
Rickie Fowler +2800
Lucas Glover +2800
Tony Finau +3000
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
Tom Kim +3500
Wyndham Clark +3500
Sungjae Im +3500
Jason Day +3500
Cameron Young +3500

The betting favorite is Scottie Scheffler at +650. Since a mind boggling 19 tournament stretch finishing inside the top-12, he’s been T-23rd and T-31st his last two events. He’s followed by three-time FedEx Cup winner Rory McIlroy and 2020 champ at this track, Jon Rahm. Patrick Cantlay, who dropped a playoff in Memphis to Lucas Glover on Sunday, has won the last two iterations of the BMW Championship, albeit at different courses.


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Odds as of Aug 14 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on the BMW Championship or check out these Kentucky sports betting apps

Patrick Cantlay Thrives in FedEx Cup Playoffs

There’s just something about the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and the second leg specifically, that brings out the best in Patrick Cantlay. Patty Ice has owned this tournament, winning it the last two years, placing 12th at this track in 2020, and he was runner-up in 2019. He found himself in a playoff for the title in Memphis, which would’ve been his fourth FedEx Cup playoff victory in his last six attempts if he’d have been victorious.

Patrick Cantlay’s Strokes Gained In Last 24 Rounds

Off-The-Tee Tee-To-Green Around-The-Green Total Ball Striking Short Game Putting
3 4 4 6 7 11 28

He was first in both SG: tee-to-green and around the green at the FedEx Cup playoff opener, and he sports +1000 odds to win outright, which is longer than the top-three players on the board. That’s pretty intriguing odds for a player who consistently shows up to win in the post-season, especially at the BMW Championship.

Past Five BMW Championship Winners

Year Winner
2022 Patrick Cantlay
2021 Patrick Cantlay
2020 Jon Rahm*
2019 Justin Thomas
2018 Keegan Bradley

*Won at Olympia Fields Country Club, site of this year’s BMW Championship.

2023 BMW Championship Picks and Value Bets

  1. Jordan Spieth (+2500): Jordan Spieth led the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week following the first round, and found himself in contention for the trophy on Sunday. He ended up in a tie for sixth, his seventh top-6 of the season. He tied for top spot in total putts for the week, and was second in strokes gained: around the green.
  2. Cam Davis (+5000): The big hitting Aussie Cam Davis has propelled himself into this tournament on the back of three solid events in a row. First it was a T-10 at the 3M Open, followed by T-7 at the Wyndham and T-6 at the playoff opener. In the last twelve rounds, he’s sixth in strokes gained: tee-to-green and fifth in total strokes gained.
  3. Taylor Moore (+8000): Taylor Moore contended for the title at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, where he was in the final group on Sunday. Moore wound up in fifth place, his fourth top-five of the campaign (he won the Valspar Championship). He’ll be an interesting name to monitor in the top 10/20 markets.
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