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Odds, Picks and How to Bet on The Match IV: DeChambeau & Rodgers vs Mickelson and Brady

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Jul 5, 2021 · 6:50 AM PDT

Phil Mickelson and Bryson DeChambeau at the U.S. Open
Phil Mickelson, left, talks with Bryson DeChambeau, right, and golf coach Chris Como, center, on the 12th hole during a practice round of the U.S. Open Golf Championship Monday, June 14, 2021, at Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
  • Bryson DeChambeau and Aaron Rodgers take on Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady on Tuesday in The Match IV at The Reserve at Moonlight Basin in Big Sky, Montana
  • DeChambeau and Rodgers are -182 favorites to win, but there are plenty of props and special bets to wager on as well
  • Read below for all the odds, analysis and a few bets to target

Major winners and Super Bowl champions will team up on Tuesday (July 6th) for the Match IV. Bryson DeChambeau and Aaron Rodgers will take on Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady at The Reserve at Moonlight Basin, in Big Sky, Montana. The Jack Nicklaus design sits at an elevation of approximately 7,500 feet, and can play as long as 8,000 yards.

TNT will provide coverage of the event starting at 5 pm ET, while several networks in the Turner Sports family will simulcast the exhibition. Each of the four players will wear a live mic, which should lead to plenty of entertaining moments.

DeChambeau, the 2020 U.S. Open champ, and Rodgers, the NFL’s reigning league MVP, are -182 favorites to win the event, which will be an 18-hole modified alternate shot competition. That means both parters will tee off on every hole, and then alternate hitting the same ball from wherever the best tee shot lands.

The Match IV Odds

Team Odds
Bryson DeChambeau/Aaron Rodgers -182
Phil Mickelson/Tom Brady +164

All odds as of July 4th at DraftKings

Of course, betting a side isn’t the only way to get action down on The Match IV. DraftKings sportsbook has a variety of props and special bets to wager on, allowing you to sweat more than just the final score.

How to Bet on The Match IV

Why wait for the conclusion of 18 holes, when you can get action on the very first one. You can wager on which team will post the lowest score on the 1st hole, and as a bonus, a tie equals no bet.

You can also wager on the first team to go 1 and 2 up, as well as the leaders after 3, 6, 9, 12, and 15 holes. But perhaps the most exciting wagers are the longest drive props. Odds are available for the longest drive between Bryson and Phil on holes 1, 6, and 8, and we’ll dive deeper into those bets later.

The Match IV Props

Hole 1 Winner – Tie no Bet Odds
Bryson DeChambeau/Aaron Rodgers -125
Phil Mickelson/Tom Brady -106
First to Go 1 Up Odds
Bryson DeChambeau/Aaron Rodgers -137
Phil Mickelson/Tom Brady +105
First to Go 2 Up Odds
Bryson DeChambeau/Aaron Rodgers -159
Phil Mickelson/Tom Brady +115
Leaders after 3 Holes Odds
Bryson DeChambeau/Aaron Rodgers -134
Phil Mickelson/Tom Brady +100
Leaders after 6 Holes Odds
Bryson DeChambeau/Aaron Rodgers -137
Phil Mickelson/Tom Brady +105
Leaders after 9 Holes Odds
Bryson DeChambeau/Aaron Rodgers -150
Phil Mickelson/Tom Brady +110
Leaders after 12 Holes Odds
Bryson DeChambeau/Aaron Rodgers -159
Phil Mickelson/Tom Brady +115
Leaders after 15 Holes Odds
Bryson DeChambeau/Aaron Rodgers -175
Phil Mickelson/Tom Brady +130
Longest Tee Shot on 1st Hole Odds
Bryson DeChambeau -200
Phil Mickelson +140
Longest Tee Shot on 6th Hole Odds
Bryson DeChambeau -200
Phil Mickelson +140
Longest Tee Shot on 8th Hole Odds
Bryson DeChambeau -200
Phil Mickelson +140
Will A QB Hit the Fairway in Regulation on Hole 1 Odds
Yes -305
No +210
Will A QB Hit the Fairway in Regulation on Hole 10 Odds
Yes -305
No +210

Just so Rodgers and Brady don’t feel left out, you can also bet on whether or not either QB will hit the fairway on Holes 1 and 10. Rodgers reportedly plays to a 3.5 handicap, while Brady hovers around an 8.

TB12 teamed up with Mickelson last year in a losing effort to Tiger and Peyton Manning in the Match 2. Rodgers meanwhile, may be new to this format but has plenty of competitive experience on the links.

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Best Bets

Rodgers is a regular at the American Century Championship and finished 9th in 2020 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. There’s no question he has game.

Brady is no slouch himself, but the six-time Super Bowl winner showed last year that he’s incredibly inconsistent. Yes, he holed a wedge from the fairway, but he also hit the ball all over the place for most of the round.

As for Bryson versus Phil, it’s hard not to lean with the youth despite Lefty’s recent performance at the PGA Championship. The Reserve at Moonlight Basin is a beast, and while the sky high elevation won’t make it play as long as it measures, who better than Bryson to crunch the numbers to figure out exactly how long each shot will net out.

DeChambeau leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee this year, and ranks 35th in putting. He’s going to set Rodgers up in position A all afternoon, and cover up any mistakes the future Hall-of-Famer makes around the greens. Take the favorites.

As for which props to target, lock and load Bryson in the long drive markets on Holes 1 and 6. Both play downhill with a relatively forgiving landing area. DeChambeau will want to put on a show for the crowd on the opening hole, and will need to hit the big dog on 6 to get home in two on the Par 5. Bryson also leads the Tour in driving distance, averaging 321.9 yards per drive compared to 301.8 yards for Phil.

Stay away from the long drive prop on hole 8. A narrow landing area could entice an iron off the tee, at which point Bryson’s biggest advantage is negated.

  • Picks: DeChambeau/Rodgers to Win (-182), DeChambeau Longest Tee Shot on Hole 1 (-200) and Hole 6 (-200)
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