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Valspar Championship Odds to Make the Cut

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Mar 14, 2023 · 1:48 PM PDT

Brian Harman watches his tee shot go off line
Brian Harman watches his drive shot from the 11th tee during round three of The American Express at La Quinta Country Club in La Quinta, Calif., Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023.
  • Odds to make the cut and miss the cut are live for the Valspar Championship which begins on Thursday, March 16, 2023
  • Brian Harman has missed the cut in four of his last five appearances at this event
  • Keep reading for the complete list of the Valspar Championship make and miss the cut odds

The PGA Tour’s Florida swing concludes with one more diabolical test at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Golf Resort. Like most Florida stops, this course has trouble lurking everywhere. That’s made the Valspar Championship one of most volatile tournaments to bet, as big names routinely fail to make the weekend.

Word on the grounds this week is that the rough is approaching four inches long, and that plus an abundance of water is going to place an even bigger emphasis on ball striking. As a result, we need to target elite approach and off the tee players in our make the cut parlay, and fade the guys who are spraying it all over the place in the miss the cut market.

The Valspar Championship Make the Cut Odds

Golfer Odds to Make the Cut Odds to Miss the Cut
Justin Thomas -900 +450
Jordan Spieth -900 +450
Sam Burns -550 +330
Matt Fitzpatrick -550 +330
Adam Hadwin -425 +275
Wyndham Clark -425 +275
Keegan Bradley -400 +260
Justin Rose -400 +260
Tommy Fleetwood -380 +250
Denny McCarthy -340 +225
Justin Suh -340 +225
Ben Griffin -340 +225
Brian Harman -295 +200
Taylor Moore -295 +200
Gary Woodland -275 +175
Stephan Jaeger -250 +175
Davis Riley -250 +175
K.H. Lee -240 +165
Brandon Wu -240 +165
Nick Taylor -240 +150

Speaking of making and missing the cut, Valspar Championship favorites Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth each sport the longest odds to trunk slam this week at +450. Both have a solid record at this track, but one player who’s struggled to find the weekend here is Brian Harman.



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Odds as of March 14 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Harman Boasts Horrible History at Copperhead

Harman has missed the weekend at the Valspar in four of his last five appearances. He’s failed to break 70 in 12 of his last 16 rounds at Copperhead, and enters the week in sub-optimal form.

Brian Harman Last 5 Starts at the Valspar Championship

Year Result SG Total
2022 5th 11
2019 MC -1.8
2017 MC -4.0
2016 MC -0.2
2015 MC -1.8

Harman has missed the cut in two of his past three tournaments, with a 44th place mixed in as well. He’s lost strokes with his irons in seven straight events, and is a negative around the green in four consecutive tournaments.

If you’re not flushing your irons at the Valspar you will be penalized, and that’s amplified if you’re also struggling to scramble.

Pick: Brian Harman to Miss the Cut (+200)

Make the Cut Parlay

Harman is a cross off for us this week, but there’s still plenty of players who are striking it well to target in our make the cut parlay. Gary Woodland is near the top of that list, after yet another impressive ball striking performance last week. The 2011 Valspar champ gained 7.4 strokes ball striking at the Players Championship, and leads the field in strokes gained approach over the past 12 rounds.

Justin Rose is our next leg, fresh off a 6th place finish at the Players Championship. Rose gained 7 strokes ball striking, and leads the field in scoring over the past 12 rounds.

Our third and fourth legs are Justin Suh and Adam Hadwin, who each boast some of the strongest form heading into this week. Suh ranks top-11 over the past 12 rounds in scoring, iron play, scrambling and putting. Hadwin meanwhile, is a former champion of this event, and ranks top-seven in both strokes gained tee to green and ball striking over the last 12 rounds.

Last, but not least, we’ll target Brandon Wu as our anchor leg. Wu has back-to-back top-20’s in Florida at the Honda and Players, and was second last month at Pebble Beach. Add it all up, and we’re looking at a +286 payday if all five of our golfers survive the cutline.

Pick: Make the Cut Parlay (+286)


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