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Odds Everyone On the Podium Will Be Wearing a Mask at the 146th Kentucky Derby, How Many Tweets will Donald Trump Make & More

Manny Franco
Jockey Manny Franco is trying to win his first Kentucky Derby on Saturday. If he wins over Tiz the Law, how will he celebrate?. Photo by @HR_Nation (Twitter).
  • The Kentucky Derby is scheduled for just after is 7:00 pm EST Saturday in Louisville, KY
  • Even if you aren’t a horse racing fan there are some wild bets that can make the day fun
  • Just like the Super Bowl, prop bets are exciting for everyone and pick the right ones for a nice profit

Some of our favorite Kentucky Derby props are unavailable this year. There is no sense in guessing the attendance, because of COVID-19 there will be no fans below the Twin Spires. That said the Run for the Roses is here, four months late, and there is a bet for every type of fan.

In addition to the race itself, which certainly merits a few bucks, let’s examine several fun possible wagers and see if we can’t focus in on a few to make your Derby Day that much more enjoyable. Perhaps you need the recipe for mint julep too, win or lose you should feel good.

Presidential Derby Tweets Odds

How Many Individual Tweets will Donald Trump Send out on Saturday? Odds
Over 20.5 -120
Under 20.5 -120

All odds taken Sept. 3

The Tweeter In Chief could have an active day Saturday with not only the Kentucky Derby taking place in Louisville, but a major protest being planned to bring awareness to the death of Breonna Taylor.

President Trump will be traveling in the evening to an event in Latrobe, PA.

Since he has averaged around 30 tweets per day for the last year, over seems like the call, though predicting his actions might be tougher than picking horses.

Over 20.5 Tweets (-120)

Winning Jockey Interview Odds

Who will the Winning Jockey Mention First When Being Interviewed After the Race? Odds
Horse +100
God +275
Owner/Owners +400
Trainer +475
Family +550

Big favorite Tiz The Law will be ridden by Manny Franco, who has never won a Kentucky Derby. Interviewed following Tiz The Law’s win right after the Florida Derby, Franco thanked the trainer, owner, and God in that order.

Good value on 82-year-old trainer Barclay Tagg getting the first shout out. After all, he more or less makes the call on what jockey to use.

Pick: Trainer (+475)

Will an NBC announcer Hit the Trifecta Odds

Will One of the NBC Race Analysts Correctly Pick the Trifecta Bet? Odds
No -900
Yes +500

Unlike picking the race winner, which isn’t that hard this year since there is a huge favorite and only a handful of legitimate candidates, a trifecta, picking the correct order of who finishes first, second, and third is really difficult.

Additionally, while celebrities and every voice on the broadcast will select a winner, only a few horse racing experts will attempt a tri wager.

That said, if you only like Tiz The Law, Authentic, Honor AP, and one or two other horses, this year the trifecta is a lot easier to hit than most years.

However, a field of 18 makes it that much more difficult, and +500 is not nearly tempting enough to bet on the pros.

Pick: No (-900)

Winning Payout Odds

Will the Winning Payout, Place Payout, and Show Payout for All Horses Who are in the Top Three Add up to More or Less than $59? Odds
Over $59 -120
Under $59 -120

Tiz The Law has somewhere around a 50-percent chance of winning, and if he gets to the finish line first and isn’t disqualified the payout is going to be about $4 to win and just over $2 to place and show. Even a bomb in second or third won’t get you to $59.

In order for this to be OVER, Tiz The Law needs to finish third or worse, or a bomb needs to win. That isn’t particularly likely.

Pick: Under (-120)

Riding or Celebrating Odds

What the Winning Jockey Will Be Doing as the Horses Cross the Wire Odds
Riding -400
Celebrating +250

Because Tiz The Law is a big favorite that leads you to believe he may win easily. That could allow Franco to celebrate. However, he had that opportunity in the Belmont Stakes and didn’t take it.

Franco waited until after the finish line to celebrate in New York, and while the price is tempting, we have to expect similar behavior if he wins on Saturday.

Pick: Riding (-400)

Odds Everyone on the Podium Following the Race Is Wearing a Mask

Result Odds
Yes -170
No +250

Again, Tiz The Law is the big favorite, so what do we know about his ownership? Sackatoga Stable is very large, and while it possible all the owners might not make it, a lot will.

When he won the Belmont Stakes, and Travers, a lot of people were present, and mask-wearing seemed inconsistent, though that was more in watching and cheering during the race than on the podium.

With numbers, and between a lot of owners, trainer, and jockey we are discussing dozens, the chance somebody doesn’t follow the rules is pretty strong.

Pick: No (+250)

Will a Bob Baffert Trained Horse Win the Kentucky Derby Odds

Result Odds
No -750
Yes +450

Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby five times including conditioning the two most recent Triple Crown winners.

This year Baffert has Authentic and Thousand Words. Both are reasonable contenders, particularly Authentic who is four-for-five in his career and has earned more than $1 million. The price for this prop is about right, but if you think Tiz The Law has a 50-percent shot, and maybe Honor A.P. is the second choice, +450 is probably not tempting enough.

Pick: No (-750)

Last Place Pole Position Odds

Saddlecloth Number of Last Place Horse Odds
#1-9 -130
#10-18 -110

The three betting favorites are going to be numbers 16, 17, and 18, and Ny Traffic (#15) is going to be well supported. It is true that several heavy longshots are slotted for gates 11-14, but there are plenty of them, plus a bunch of other pretenders in the first nine stalls too. Knowing that four of the horses on the outside are probably going to avoid last makes the first nine gates very strong contenders for the cellar.
Pick: #1-9 (-130)


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