Kentucky Derby Props: Will Secretariat’s Record Be Broken, Winning Margin & Time, Tiz the Law vs The Field & More

• Post time for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby is 7:01 pm EST
• Props give bettors an opportunity to bet on almost anything surrounding the race
• The is an opportunity to make cash by focusing on some of the outside-the-box betting opportunities

The roses will be just as bright red in September. Winning will be just as satisfying if not more so. Sure the Kentucky Derby is four months late, but there is never a bad time for a winning bet, and with the Run for the Roses come lots of good wagering opportunities.

Of course, you should bet on the race itself. The fastest two minutes in sports is often a great gambling event, with up to 20 competitors prices can be high. This year is top-heavy but beat Tiz the Law and you’re in business. That said, in addition to betting to win, why not spice it up?

Bookmakers know how much attention the Kentucky Derby gets and they’ve created lots of fun wagers. Let’s look at some favorites.

Margin of Victory Odds

All odds taken Sept. 2

The first Kentucky Derby was run in 1875. Since then the final margin has been less than a length 43 times (nose nine times, head seven, neck nine, half a length 11, three-quarters of a length seven). On 23 occasions the winner has been clear by four lengths or more with an eight-length gap (four different times) the largest.

The late 1990s brought four straight Derbies won by less than a length (1996, 1997, 1998, 1999). That has not been the case recently. The smallest margin of victory since ’99 is a full length though that isn’t what the records actually show. Officially last year Country House defeated Code of Honor by three-quarters of a length though in reality Maximum Security won easily, but was disqualified. Ten times since the turn of the century the winner has cruised by two lengths or more.

How you play this prop in large measure depends on how you feel about Tiz the Law. Because he is going to be an enormous favorite the chances for a blowout are reasonable. Look at his last several races, he tends to win easily

Pick: 3 Lengths to 5 3/4 Lengths (+275)

First Quarter Mile Odds

A 22.7 quarter-mile is unbelievably fast for a mile-and-a-quarter race. Interestingly, this prop had 22.8 as the O/U universally last year, and the ‘Under’ won easily at 22.31. That said, 2020 feels different.

Usually, there are 20 horses all hyped up thanks in large part to a massive crowd and a sprint develops. This year there are only 18 horses, and no fans to egg the equine on.

Weather often plays a role, and the track is expected to be fast which could help a quick tempo. The last several years we have seen 22.31, 23.53, and 23.83.

Fewer horses and no noise should lead to jockey’s and horses that are calm and in less of a rush to the first turn.

Pick: Over 22.7 Seconds (-120)

First Half Mile Odds

Over the last three years the half has been run in 46.42, 45.77, 46.53, and 45.72. While anything is possible, the under seems like a strong play.

Pick: Under 49.5 Seconds (-120)

Wire-to-Wire Odds

Tiz the Law is an enormous favorite and while he is usually close at the start, he has never won in gate-to-wire fashion.

Authentic is the best sprinter in the field, or at least has the best chance of hitting the front early and sticking.

If this prop was giving us odds better than a simple Authentic to win wager we’d be interested. In reality, the price is about the same, and if Authentic gets out of the gate second, and rallies to win, we’d rather just bet him on the nose.

Honestly, the odds are about right on this prop, but with Tiz a huge favorite and coming just off the pace, we lean against.

Pick: No (-800)

Odds on Winner Breaking Secretariat’s Record Time

This is like asking in any given year whether a baseball player will bat .400, or in a single basketball game if an individual player will score 100 points. Sure it has happened, but it is very unlikely.

Last year the final time was 2:03.93. Horses cover roughly five lengths in a second. That means Secretariat wins last year’s Derby by well over 20 lengths.

Tiz the Law might be great, but all-time great?

Pick: No (-5000)

Odds on Final Time for the Kentucky Derby Winner

This has gone ‘Over’ in three straight years (2:03.93, 2:04.20, 2:03.59) but none of those have been on fast tracks.

Nyquist won in 2016 on a fast surface in 2:01.31. A year before that American Pharoah needed 2:03.66 over a fast going.

What none of that factors is the extra four months these horses have had to mature and get stronger. Horses at the age of three are like toddlers, they grow up quickly. Late in the year on a fast surface should produce a quick time.

Pick: Under (-120)

This Year’s Winning Time vs Last Year’s Winning Time Odds

The winning time last year came a) in the slop, and b) from a horse that crossed the finish line second (Maximum Security was disqualified). Additionally, the horses running this year, in September rather than May, are more seasoned and strong.

Pick: Yes (-220)

Tiz The Law vs The Field Odds

While it is true Tiz the Law has been dominant, and many of the top contenders have dropped out with injuries, Tiz the Law may go off as the biggest Derby favorite in more than 40 years. While he probably deserves to be even-money, there are several rivals who merit some respect. Pool them together and it is probably a 50/50 or so.
The Field (+120)

Will There Be an Inquiry Odds

It is important to understand what an inquiry is. It is an official review of the race. It doesn’t have to involve the winner, and the action of looking at the race closely does not mean that any change in order of finish must take place.

There was no inquiry last year when Maximum Security was disqualified. A jockey’s objection led to the review.

Regardless, inquiries do not happen anywhere close to a quarter of the time, so even though stewards want to be certain the Kentucky Derby is run fairly, the chances of an inquiry are probably closer to 10-1 than 3-1.

Pick: No (-500)

Additional Kentucky Derby coverage

• Churchill Downs Odds & Picks Turf Classic & More: Kentucky Derby Undercard Sept 5

• Kentucky Derby Odds & Betting Preview: Tiz the Law -162 Favorite