Churchill Downs Odds & Picks Turf Classic & More: Kentucky Derby Undercard Sept 5

• In addition to the Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs has six other graded stakes races Saturday
• The Grade 1 Turf Classic is a terrific betting race with a full field and no huge favorite
• Where can we find value wagering on the Derby Day card in Louisville?

While the fastest two minutes in sports, the Kentucky Derby is the main event on Saturday, what makes Derby Day so special is the whole day. Because of COVID-19 this year a lot of the pomp and circumstance will be missing, and the regularly scheduled May event is taking place in September minus the normal 150,000 fans. However, the racing from 11 am EST until 7 pm EST is incredibly high.

Churchill Downs has littered their Saturday card with high-end races and that means great wagering opportunities. Let’s look closely at the competitive and exciting grade one Turf Classic, and discuss the rest of the graded stakes action Saturday in Louisville.

2020 Turf Classic Odds

Odds taken September 2

No horse is under +300 or over +2200, a pretty good indication it is wide open. The mile-and-an-eighth challenge is scheduled to begin at 5:50 pm EST. The final race before the Kentucky Derby will be televised by NBC.

Favorites

The two favorites couldn’t look a lot more different. Factor This has won five straight races but has never run in a grade one affair. Meanwhile, Rockemperor has just two career victories, none in this country, and his last victory came on a synthetic surface in France 19 months ago. That said, he is consistently knocking on the door against the best American turf horses.

Factor This ran his best career race in March easily beating Rockemperor and Dontblamerocket in a grade two event in New Orleans.

Since that race Factor This won for the third time in four races at Churchill Downs, and last time out took a stakes race at Ellis Park. A five-year-old who needed a couple of years to mature, he is running his best now.

Rockemperor has been a favorite in three of his last four races but has finished second in back-to-back tries following sixth and third-place finishes. He is one of three horses trained by America’s top turf trainer Chad Brown in this race, and last time out just missed in a grade one affair.

There is a lot to like with Rockemperor, he is classy, running well, and has among the top speed figures in this race. That said, he just doesn’t win.

Top Contenders

Brown’s other two horses, Digital Age and Sacred Life are viable.

Digital Age snapped a six-race losing streak winning an optional claimer at Saratoga on July 18. His best career effort came on Kentucky Derby weekend last year at Churchill Downs. He won the grade two American Stakes and then ran a good fourth in a 14 horse field in the Belmont Derby. In two races this year, as a four-year-old, he has been second and first, both times bet down to the favorite against horses of lesser quality than he faces in this race.

Coming off a decisive stakes victory off a long layoff, Sacred Life should be coming late. His first race in seven months was a dominant victory in Monmouth Park’s Oceanport Stakes. Before his rest he was running against the likes of Zulu Alpha.

Longshots

Trainer Mike Maker has made a career out of improving turf horses. His two entrants in this race are coming off one-two efforts in the grade two Bernard Baruch Handicap at Saratoga.

Somelikeithotbrown will once again be trying to win wire-to-wire, and if he can get an easy lead he’ll be in great shape. That said, Factor This also likes to be near or on the front and that could create a speed duel.

Mr Dumas is a good price to pick up the pieces if things fall apart upfront. He should sit a nice trip just off the pace, and though this is a step up class-wise, he has three wins in four lifetime races at Churchill Downs.

The Bet

An argument can really be made for every horse in this field and that’s why we aren’t interested in a low price. Sacred Life is second off a layoff and only needs to improve slightly to be in the mix in this one. Brown often wins with his “second” or “third” horse, and even in losses, Sacred Life has routinely been running against as good or better than this quality of horse.

Pick: Sacred Life (+600)

Additional Graded Stakes Races at Churchill Downs on September 5

American Turf Stakes

Only two of the nine fillies going a-mile-and-a-sixteenth have graded stakes victories. Smooth Like Strait and Field Pass have a pair of grade three wins. They faced each other in May at Churchill Downs.

There is a lot of speed in this race so one wonders whether the tempo will be fast and maybe Field Pass can rate and go by in the stretch?

Taishan is trying turf for the first time after being on the Triple Crown trail. If he likes the sod he very much fits with this class of horse.

Pick: Field Pass (+200)

Pat Day Mile Stakes

A mix of three-year-olds who prefer a shorter distance than the Triple Crown, or are less experienced and seasoned than Derby horses go a one-turn mile.

Rushie and Tap It To Win both have run fairly well against some of the top Run for the Roses contenders. Rushie has run six times, and has two wins, plus loses to Art Collector, Honor AP, Charlatan, and Thousand Words. He has hit the board in five of six races.

Tap it to Win won back to back races before running into Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes. He ran second last time out in a grade one race at Saratoga.

Echo Town, who beat Tap It to Win returns in this event. Echo Town has four wins in seven races and not only got by Tap It to Win, but turned the tables on No Parole, who beat him in the Woody Stephens Stakes.

Cezanne is a lightly raced $3.65 million Bob Baffert horse who beat mediocre competition in his first two races and was a non-factor against Thousand Words and Honor AP last time out.

Pick: Rushie (+400)

Iroquois Stakes

A Breeders Cup Win and You’re In event for the BC Juvenile, this grade three contest features 11 two-year-olds going a mile.

Therideofalifetime is stretching out from six furlongs but has run three times and finished second twice, easily winning a third race. Both losses have come against unbeaten Jackie’s Warrior.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has two interesting candidates. Midnight Bourbon cost more than half a million dollars and is coming off an easy maiden win at a mile at Ellis Park. Super Stock is stretching out after winning a stakes race at Lone Star Park.

Dreamer’s Disease is a bit of a mystery horse. At 21/1 he won a maiden race at a mile on turf last time out at Ellis Park.

Pick: Midnight Bourbon (+600)

Distaff Turf Mile Stakes

Newspaperofrecord will be a tough customer as she seeks to improve career earnings to over $1 million when fillies and mares go one mile on the turf.

In eight career races Newspaperofrecord has five wins, two seconds, and has been the favorite in all but her last race. That was a grade one victory over today’s rival Beau Recall.

Newspaperofrecord is the only horse in the field with a grade one victory, but Juliet Foxtrot came close finishing third in the Jenny Wiley Stakes at Keeneland in July.

Pick: Newspaperofrecord (-125)

Derby City Distaff Stakes

Some of the top female sprinters in the country will go seven furlongs for a prize of $500,000. There are two key prep races for this event, August’s Ballerina Stakes at Saratoga, and July’s Madison Stakes at Keeneland.

In the Ballerina Serengeti Empress cut back in distance, returned to her front running preference, and beat Bellafina.

Despite a contested hot tempo, Serengeti Empress won for a seventh time in 17 races. This might be her best distance but she could get pace pressure today, and Bellafina is classy and capable with many graded stakes wins on the resume.

As for the Madison Stakes, Mia Mischief and Bell’s the One return to action today after finishing second and third in July.

Mia Mischief’s best career win came at Churchill Downs on Derby weekend last year. In 23 career races, against strong competition, she has 10 wins and seven-second place finishes. While Bell’s the One does not have a win against this caliber of competition, the four-year-old has run competitively when facing top horses.

Pick: Serengeti Empress (+180)