Best Bets & Odds to Place, Show and Finish Top 10 at the 2020 Kentucky Derby
- The rescheduled Kentucky Derby will be run Saturday at Churchill Downs
- There are many more ways to bet the race than just singling in on the winner
- By projecting where more than one horse may finish you can create wagering value
One of the reasons the Kentucky Derby is a great betting race is the availability of props and alternative lines. You can love a longshot, but recognize he may not win, and still play him to finish among the top two or three or five.
While this year’s event features a huge favorite and many of the top contenders have dropped out, there will be value if you can identify the under-the-radar horse who can hold his speed for a-mile-and-a-quarter or make a late run down the lengthy Churchill Downs stretch.
Let’s look at the field and their odds to finish among the top tier.
Odds to Finish the Kentucky Derby Among the Top Group of Horses
| Horse | Top 10 Odds | Top 5 Odds | Top 4 Odds | Top 3 Odds | Top 2 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finnick The Fierce | +130 | +600 | +900 | +1400 | +2500 |
| Max Player | -150 | +310 | +450 | +750 | +1200 |
| Enforceable | -135 | +310 | +450 | +750 | +1200 |
| Storm The Court | +100 | +500 | +750 | +1200 | +2200 |
| Major Fed | -115 | +375 | +550 | +900 | +1600 |
| King Guillermo | -250 | +175 | +260 | +400 | +750 |
| Money Moves | -110 | +425 | +600 | +1000 | +1800 |
| South Bend | +130 | +600 | +900 | +1400 | +2500 |
| Mr. Big News | +155 | +750 | +1100 | +1800 | +3300 |
| Thousand Words | -275 | +140 | +210 | +325 | +600 |
| Necker Island | +175 | +850 | +1200 | +2000 | +3500 |
| Sole Volante | -175 | +250 | +350 | +550 | +1000 |
| Attachment Rate | -110 | +425 | +600 | +1000 | +1800 |
| Winning Impression | +175 | +850 | +1200 | +2000 | +3500 |
| Ny Traffic | -200 | +200 | +290 | +450 | +850 |
| Honor AP | -600 | -190 | -130 | +125 | +230 |
| Tiz The Law | -2500 | -1600 | -1200 | -700 | -400 |
| Authentic | -450 | -130 | +115 | +180 | +325 |
All odds taken Sept. 3
Post time for the Kentucky Derby is 7:01 pm EST. The race will be televised by NBC. A new starting gate will be utilized this year. It will be able to load the entire field into one gate, and with narrower stalls for each horse may benefit those on the far inside and far outside. In previous years those on the rail had very little room to maneuver and if they didn’t get out well could really get pinned in. Those on the outside are now slightly less wide than in prior runnings.
Where Is the Value Betting the Top 10
Remember that the Top 10 doesn’t even mean a horse has to be in the first half of the field to finish in order to cash. In a race that has a lot of answers, we kind of know who the legitimate contenders and who the total pretenders are, Money Moves is interesting.
Two-time Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher conditions a lightly raced colt that was bought for $975,000. He is stepping way way up in class, but his speed figures have gotten better each time he’s run.
Money Moves just missed last time out at Saratoga. If the connections thought he wasn’t a Derby horse but was pretty good they could have stayed at The Spa and ran in this weekend’s Jim Dandy Stakes, yet he is trying the Derby. Maybe they know something?
If you were on the Art Collector bandwagon, why not Attachment Rate? Art Collector is injured and not running, but Attachment Rate has had several rough trips in a row, has consistently competed against top horses, and was second behind Art last time out in the Ellis Park Derby.
Attachment Rate has just one win in eight tries, but he should sit a nice trip, just behind the leaders with an opportunity to pounce before the deep closers.
Who Can Surprisingly Hit the Board?
It will be no shock if Tiz the Law wins, or finishes second or third. Betting on that is not recommended. There just is no real money to be made on the heavy favorite.
Second choice Honor AP, and third choice Authentic have limited appeal too. They both make a ton of sense, but in order to get value you really need them to finish first, second, or third. If you see this as a two or three-horse race, maybe betting one of these two to finish in the Top 2 or 3 holds mild interest.
After Honor AP beat Authentic in the Santa Anita Derby, Authentic won the Haskell Invitational in New Jersey, while Honor AP ran poorly in the Shared Belief Stakes in California.
The Haskell was a really interesting race. While Authentic won, it looked like he was going to dominate the affair. However, Ny Traffic was coming hard late.
Ny Traffic is the best value to finish in the Top 2, 3, and 4. This year he has consistently run against the top horses and finished third once and twice on three occasions. He is versatile, able to run near the front or from behind, seems to like extra distance, and has acted like a total pro all year.
Additional Kentucky Derby coverage
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
