5 MLB Win Totals You Need to Act on Now
- Baseball is back and so are sportsbooks’ annual win total projections.
- Will the Astros surpass 100 wins for the second straight year?
- Will the Marlins set a new record for futility after unloading three All-Stars in the offseason?
The 2018 Major League Baseball season is still 40 days away, but that hasn’t stopped one sportsbook from releasing its annual win projections for all 30 clubs. The online sportsbook believes the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros will be the class of baseball once again this summer, and has set the over/under for both teams at 96.5. Bringing up the rear are the lowly Miami Marlins, whose over/under total is just 64.5 following an offseason in which minority owner Derek Jeter sold everything that wasn’t nailed down.
We’ve taken a close look at these numbers and have found tremendous value in the win totals for five teams. We’ve outlined our selections below and encourage you to pounce on ’em now while you still can.
| Team | Projected Totals | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 96.5 | -130 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 84.5 | -115 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 84.5 | -115 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 77.5 | -115 |
| Miami Marlins | 64.5 | -130 |
Houston Astros: Over 96.5 Wins
The sportsbook’s projection of 96.5 wins seems curiously low for a team that won 101 games in 2017 and captured its first World Series title in franchise history. The defending champs have their talented young core locked up for years to come and managed to beef up their starting rotation in the offseason with the acquisition of Gerrit Cole, a hard-throwing right-hander who won 19 games with the Pirates in 2015.
The 27-year-old should slot in nicely behind former Cy Young Award winners Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander to give Houston one of the best rotations in baseball. The Astros may not win it all in 2018, but they should win more than 97 games.
Los Angeles Angels: Over 84.5 Wins
The Angels pushed all of their chips into the center of the table this offseason by acquiring All-Star infielders Zack Cozart and Ian Kinsler, and re-signing Andrelton Simmons and Justin Upton. They can now field a line-up in which every single position player has been to at least one All-Star game or won one Gold Glove.
Ohtani’s presence alone should be enough to ensure the Angels win at least five more games than 2017.
L.A. also made headlines by signing Shohei Ohtani, the so-called “Japanese Babe Ruth” capable of hitting epic moonshots and hitting triple figures on the radar gun. It’s unclear precisely how he will be used, but Ohtani’s presence alone should be enough to ensure the Angels win at least five more games than 2017.
Milwaukee Brewers: Over 84.5 Wins
Few teams did more to improve their roster this winter than the Brewers, who acquired a pair of highly sought-after outfielders in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. The fleet-footed duo has the kind of speed and power to give pitchers fits, and should significantly improve Milwaukee’s porous defense. The Brewers also made a smart, under-the-radar move by nabbing pitcher Yovani Gallardo, a solid innings eater who won 17 games for the Brew Crew back in 2011. All three players should help the franchise surpass last year’s 86-win total and return to the playoffs for the first time in eight years.
Tampa Bay Rays: Under 77.5 Wins
The Rays won 80 games in 2017, but that was before unloading Evan Longoria, the franchise leader in career home runs, doubles, and RBIs.
The Rays are now left with a roster that has more holes than a block of Swiss cheese.
Management ultimately made the right decision by selling high on the 32-year-old former All-Star, but the Rays are now left with a roster that has more holes than a block of Swiss cheese. Expect Tampa Bay to take a big step back this season in the loaded AL East.
Miami Marlins: Under 64.5 Wins
The Marlins may technically be a Major League team, but they’ll be fielding a minor league roster for much of the season after unloading NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, All-Stars Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon, and gold glover Christian Yelich in a fire sale of unprecedented proportions.
For those of you keeping track at home, that hard-hitting quartet combined for 116 home runs, 370 RBI, and 79 stolen bases on a team that still just managed to eke out 77 wins in 2017. Given how little they got in return, the Marlins are now on pace to finish dead last in every quantifiable metric except for losses and disenchanted fans.
Ryan worked as an Editor and resident Lead NBA and MLB Writer for SB from 2017-19. He has authored his own weekly columns for Fox Sports and AskMen, and has created successful campaigns for the WWE, the NHL, and the NFL. Ryan's critically acclaimed stories have been published in 20 books.
