2018 World Series Odds Update: 11 Teams, 10 Playoff Spots, 1 Great Bet

• The American League playoff field is set and the National League is all but finalized, as well. 
• The Red Sox remain the overall favorites despite huge bullpen concerns. 
• The Dodgers are twice as short as the Rockies even though Colorado has the inside track on the NL West title.

Less than a week out from the AL Wild Card game (Oct. 3rd), the playoff field in the junior circuit has been decided. Houston, Cleveland, and Boston have sewn up the divisions, and the Yankees and Athletics will play the Wild Card game, likely in New York.

In the National League, there’s a lot more to be decided. The Braves have won the East, but the Cubs and Brewers are only separated by half a game in the Central, and the Rockies lead the Dodgers by one game in the West.

The two teams that lose those races will probably be in the NL Wild Card; however, the Cardinals still have a chance to snag that last playoff berth, sitting one game back with four to play.

The graph below shows the latest odds for all 11 teams still in contention. For bettors, one team should stand out as the obvious value play.

Best Value Bets for the 2018 World Series

Don’t Take the Red Sox or Astros at Short Odds

Four of the top-five favorites (Red Sox, Astros, Indians, Yankees) are in the American League. They are the four strongest teams at this point, but obviously only one can reach the World Series. Taking +340 or +350 on the Red Sox and Astros is not advised. While Boston is setting franchise records (107 wins to-date), their bullpen is a problem, Craig Kimbrel excluded.

As a whole, their relievers have a 4.07 xFIP, which is a respectable 12th in the MLB, but far worse than Houston (1st at 3.30), New York (2nd at 3.36), and Cleveland (7th at 3.95).

Given the postseason struggles David Price has had in his career, the fact that Chris Sale hasn’t pitched more than 5.0 innings in a game since July 27th, and the downward trajectory of Rick Porcello (5.26 ERA in the last 30 days vs 4.33 ERA on the season), this team may not have the pitching (either starting or relief) to survive the AL gauntlet.

#RedSox David Price is approaching the post-season, a time in the #MLB season that has not been kind to him. He has started a total of nine playoff games for the Rays, Tigers, Blue Jays and Red Sox. His team hasn’t won a single one of those games. From WSJ. pic.twitter.com/oSIJsYH6B0

— John Katz (@jckatz) September 26, 2018

Houston does have the pitching (starters and relievers), but they will be facing Cleveland in the ALDS. Fancy winning three of five against Corey Kluber (2.83 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), Trevor Bauer (2.26 ERA, 1.10 WHIP), and Mike Clevinger (3.07 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)? I don’t, not at +350 odds, especially when Cleveland’s bullpen includes Brad Hand (2.36 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and Andrew Miller (3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).

Plus, Houston’s own star shortstop (Carlos Correa) is banged up and having his worst season as a pro, slashing just .239/.322/.398.

The Rockies Are For Real

Unlike the AL and its goliaths, the NL is wide open. Yes, the Dodgers (+725 average odds) have a +170 run differential, but they’re also about to lose the division to Colorado (more on that later) and could miss the playoffs entirely if the Cardinals break out of their slump.

Colorado (+1400 average odds) has by far the worst run differential (+31) among the six NL teams still alive. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. They have been much better in the second half of the year and, over the last 30 days, have a +52 run difference. They are fifth in runs-scored in that span and third in runs-allowed.

In sum, they have been absolutely obliterating teams down the stretch.

How about some run differential talk, because people seem to like talking about run differential?

Our +30 run differential over the past three games is the largest 3-game margin in club history. #Rockies25th pic.twitter.com/cYbwJVTyLH

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) September 27, 2018

The Rockies’ bullpen was a huge problem earlier in the year, but it’s trending in the same direction as the team in toto. Over the last 30 days, it’s fourth in the MLB in ERA and seventh in xFIP. Led by Kyle Freeland (2.84 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) and German Marquez (3.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), their starters have been just as good, posting a 3.21 ERA (3rd) and 3.56 xFIP (9th).

Getting back to the division race, Colorado controls its own fate, sitting one game up on LA. Their final series is against a feisty Nationals team that’s battling to the end, but it’s at home and they avoid Max Scherzer. Instead of the three-time Cy Young winner, they get to face Joe Ross (4.09 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), Erick Fedde (5.24 ERA, 1.53 WHIP), and a sub-optimal Stephen Strasburg (3.77 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), while countering with Freeland, John Gray (4.91 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), and Marquez on three days’ rest (if they need him).

The Dodgers, meanwhile, travel to San Francisco this weekend. The Giants are no powerhouse, but they have their top two pitchers lined up (Madison Bumgarner and Derek Rodriguez) and have a 42-36 record at home. Even if the Rockies, who have won seven straight, drop a game to Washington, they would only need the Giants to take one of three from LA to win the division.

If/when the Rockies win their first NL West crown ever (seriously, look it up), they’ll meet the Braves in the NLDS. They took five of seven this year from Atlanta, a team with inexperienced starters and below-average bullpen.

If they reach the World Series, they’ll be big underdogs to whatever AL team is waiting there. But at that point, you’ll be able to hedge to your heart’s content and ensure yourself a profit.