Astros vs Mariners Picks, Odds, and Probable Pitchers (July 28)

• The Houston Astros are road favorites over the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday afternoon
• It’s a dandy of a pitching matchup, with Houston trotting out 2019 All-Star Jake Odorizzi (3-5, 4.23) against 2021 All-Star Yusei Kikuchi (6-5, 3.95)
• The odds and pitching matchups can be found below with a prediction

The Seattle Mariners (55-46, 33-21 home entering Tuesday night) will try to keep their post-break momentum going at T-Mobile Park when they host the American League West-leading Houston Astros (61-40, 27-20 away) at 3:40 pm ET Wednesday in the series finale.

The Astros hold a five-game lead over the Oakland Athletics (again, as of Tuesday) in the division standings, while the Mariners are six games behind in third place.

Houston is 6-4 in the second half, with back-to-back series wins over Cleveland and Texas before taking on Seattle in the Emerald City.  The M’s have done the ‘Stros one game better since the Midsummer Classic, sporting a 7-3 mark entering Tuesday’s game and have also  either won or split three series since the break. But even with their ace on the bump Wednesday, Scott Servais’ club is an underdog on getaway day.

Houston is a -125 favorite on the moneyline and the line is creeping more and more in the Astros’ favor.

Astros vs Mariners Odds

Odds as of July 27th at DraftKings.

Probable Pitchers

The game features a pair of starters who have experienced their share of success. The Astros roll out Jake Odorizzi (3-5, 4.23), while the Mariners counter with Yusei Kikuchi (6-5, 3.95).

In 12 starts this season, Odorizzi has only managed a pair of quality starts. But both of those efforts (each a 6.0-inning outing that resulted in a victory) have come in the last month. Meantime, the veteran 30-year-old has not managed to get through four complete innings in his last two starts.

Odorizzi vs Kikuchi

Odorizzi went 4.2 innings, allowing four hits, three earned runs, two walks and struck out six against the Rangers in an eventual 7-3 victory for the Astros in his last start. Prior to that one was the right-hander’s worst outing of the last month-plus. Odorizzi only managed to go 3.1 innings, allowing six hits, four earned runs, four walks and only struck out one in a 10-1 blowout at the hands of the White Sox. Worst of all, he allowed two home runs in the 73-pitch effort (he surrendered three dingers in his first start of the season April 13th).

Odorizzi is 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA in six road starts this season. Garcia is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA in seven road starts this season. In 5 games (5 starts)  during the day, he has an 0-2 record and 4.00 ERA.

Odorizzi got hammered in his lone career start at T-Mobile, going 4.1 innings and allowing three hits, four earned runs, three walks and striking out seven. He’s 1-4 with a 4.63 ERA in his career against the Mariners — including this outing five years ago that included an ejection.

Meanwhile, Kikuchi has had ridden a roller coaster in his last four starts, posting a pair of rough outings bookended by a two quality starts.

The 30-year-old southpaw is coming off one of his best starts of the season last Friday against the A’s. Kukuchi went six innings and allowed six hits and three runs, but he only gave up one walk and struck out a season-high (and career-best) 12 batters in a no-decision. Seattle eventually beat Oakland 4-3.

Yusei Kikuchi becomes just the 4th Mariners lefty to strike out 12+ in a game.

James Paxton most recently did it once
Mark Langston 9 times
Randy Johnson a hilarious 48 times

— Gary Hill Jr. (@GaryHillJr) July 24, 2021

After an up-and-down first two seasons in the big leagues, the Japanese import is starting to figure things out in Year 3 in The Show.  But will it be enough to shut down a dangerous Houston lineup Wednesday?

Alvarez … Then What?

Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez has been a monster in July, stroking five dingers and 14 RBIs in 17 games. He is also 5-for-11 against the Mariners this season with two doubles, and 4-for-8 lifetime against Kikuchi, including a homer and a double.

Yordan Alvarez was four years old the last time the Mariners won the AL West.

— Archbishop Deshaies (@HouCounterplot) July 27, 2021

The next-best player with success against the lefty is Houston third baseman Alex Bregman. The two-time All-Star is 5-for-13  against Kikuchi, including a home run and three doubles.

The only problem? Bregman is still on a rehab assignment nursing a quad injury and isn’t expected to be back with the big club until next week.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Only three players that could be in Seattle’s starting lineup Wednesday have faced Odorizzi, none with much success.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers