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Astros vs Rangers Odds & Picks (Sep. 4)

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Updated Sep 3, 2023 · 8:10 PM PDT

Texas Rangers celebrating a walkoff win over the Minnesota Twins
Sep 3, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; The Texas Rangers celebrate with Rangers right fielder Adolis Garcia (53) after Garcia hits a walk off home run for the win over the Minnesota Twins during the ninth inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Texas Rangers are -115 home favorites over the Houston Astros in the opener of a key three-game series between these AL West rivals on Monday, September 4
  • Houston and Texas are both holding down American League Wild Card playoff positions
  • Get the Astros vs Rangers predictions and odds for Monday, Sep. 4

The eyes of Texas – and all of MLB for that matter – will be on this week’s three-game series between the Texas Rangers (76-60, 43-26 home) and Houston Astros (77-60, 42-27 away). Both teams are currently situated with American League Wild Card spots in the MLB playoff bracket. Both are also within a game of first place in the AL West.

Texas is set as the slight -115 home favorite for the first game of this set. However, it’s Houston that is 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the run line in the last eight road games against the Rangers.

Astros vs Rangers Odds

Team Run Line Total Moneyline
Houston Astros +1.5 (-190) O 9.5 (-110) -105
Texas Rangers -1.5 (+158) U 9.5 (-110) -115

First pitch on Monday, September 4 at Globe Life Field is set for 4:05 pm ET. Texas is 0-4 ATS in the club’s last four games.

In the MLB public betting trends, bettors are really liking the underdog. At -1.5, Houston is drawing 82% of handle and 61% of bets in the spread splits. The Astros are 4-6 ATS against the Rangers this season. At -105, the moneyline splits are also leaning Astros to the tune of 90% of handle and 58% of bets. Houston is 7-1 SU in the club’s past eight road games.

As far as the total of 9.5 runs,  the public is going for the over. It’s garnering 72% of handle and 54% of bets. The total has gone over in three of the last four games played by Texas.


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Astros Rookie France Enjoying Strong Second Half

In the short term, Astros rookie right-hander JP France has lost two of his last three decisions. In the bigger picture, the pitcher is 8-2 over his last 10 decisions. France’s 1.94 ERA since the all-star break is #2 in MLB.

France sat 2-3 following a June 23 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of 11 trips to the mound since then. The rookie surrendered just one unearned run over seven innings of work and got the win in a 4-3 verdict over the Rangers on July 25.

France vs Heaney

JP France
Andrew Heaney
10-5 Record 9-6
3.49 ERA 4.16
4.64 xERA 4.61
1.29 WHIP 1.35
2.53 SO/W 2.68

Rangers left-hander Andrew Heaney has already equaled his career best for wins, set in 2018 with the Los Angeles Angels. He hasn’t taken a loss since July 18. On the other hand, Heaney’s without a win since Aug. 6, a stretch covering his last four starts. He’s 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three starts this season against the Astros.

Control is proving an issue for Heaney this season. Heaney’s strikeouts/walks ratio is at a career-low 2.68. His 3.5 bases on balls per nine innings is his highest number in that category since 2017 (3.7).

Long Ball Helping Both Teams

Texas (190) and Houston (186) are 5-6 in the AL in home runs. The Rangers hit three dingers in Sunday’s 5-4 win over Minnesota – two from Mitch Garver and a walkoff for the win from Adolis Garcia.

Garcia is third in the Junior Circuit with 33 homers. Houston’s Kyle Tucker and Corey Seager of Texas are tied for eighth with 26 home runs. Seager leads the AL with a .341 batting average. Nathaniel Lowe of the Rangers leads the league with 37 doubles and Garcia is on top with 99 RBI.

Astros vs Rangers Recent Results

Date Home-Away Moneyline Run Line Total
07/26/2023 HOU 5 TEX 13 TEX TEX Over
07/25/2023 HOU 4 TEX 3 HOU TEX Under
07/24/2023 HOU 10 TEX 9 HOU TEX Over
07/03/2023 TEX 11 HOU 12 HOU HOU Over
07/02/2023 TEX 3 HOU 5 HOU HOU Under
07/01/2023 TEX 5 HOU 2 TEX TEX Under
06/30/2023 TEX 3 HOU 5 HOU HOU Under
04/16/2023 HOU 9 TEX 1 HOU HOU Over
04/15/2023 HOU 8 TEX 2 HOU HOU Over
04/14/2023 HOU 2 TEX 6 TEX TEX Under

Heaney is 4-0 with a 3.02 ERA in the second half. August was his best month of the season. He was 2-0 with a 2.39 ERA. He’s also 6-3 at home, but just 4-4 with a 3.20 ERA in 14 career starts facing Houston.

The Astros will be playing a day road game following a night home game on Sunday. It’s only a 255-mile journey, but it’s still travel while the Rangers are home and resting.

Astros vs Rangers  Pick: Texas Rangers (-115)

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