Best Home Run Picks & Odds Today: Premium HR Props for Today’s MLB Slate

Published: August 7, 2026 at 9:48 am EDT

Matt Olson celebrates a home run versus the Blue Jays. — Jun 2, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson (28) reacts after hitting a home run against the Toronto Blue Jays during the sixth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

A full 15-game MLB slate offers plenty of power-prop opportunities.
We spotlight five hitters with favorable park and pitcher matchups.
Our approach blends odds, venue context, and home-run susceptibility.

Today’s 15-game MLB slate features several strong power spots, from Dodgers-Diamondbacks to Braves-Yankees. When hunting for MLB home run props, venue context is critical, and this board offers a wide range of MLB park factors to weigh.

Hitter-friendly parks like Nationals Park, Yankee Stadium, and Citizens Bank Park stand out, while tougher environments such as Busch Stadium and Oracle Park require more selectivity. Below, we break down five home run picks with odds, matchup notes, and park-driven edges.

Best Home Run Picks Today

Matchup	Pick	Best Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks	Shohei Ohtani	+288
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals	Elly De La Cruz	+500
Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies	Kyle Schwarber	+265
Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees	Matt Olson	+347
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks	Corbin Carroll	+480

Shohei Ohtani (+288) — Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

Ohtani finds himself in a premier matchup tonight against Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly. A relentless work ethic defines Ohtani’s preparation, and he brings that discipline to Chase Field. Kelly has struggled significantly with the long ball this season. He carries a staggering 1.810 HR/9 rate after allowing 23 home runs across 114.1 innings pitched. This is one of the worst rates on today’s entire slate.

The game unfolds at Chase Field, an environment that plays to Ohtani’s elite volume metrics. The stadium ranks 11th in runs per game and averages a formidable 2.11 home runs per contest. Facing a highly susceptible pitcher, Ohtani’s raw strength and tactical approach put him in a prime spot. As the classic clubhouse adage goes, “Hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard,” but Ohtani possesses both, making him a dominant threat.

Elly De La Cruz (+500) — Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals

The switch-hitting sensation gets a massive venue upgrade tonight as the Reds visit Nationals Park. De La Cruz embodies a fearless underdog mentality, constantly working to elevate his launch angle and plate discipline. Nationals Park ranks fifth overall in run production and yields an elevated 3.09 home runs per game. The park has surrendered 176 total home runs this season.

While Washington starter Cade Cavalli is not the most home-run-prone arm on the slate, the sheer quality of the hitting environment provides a major tactical edge. De La Cruz’s elite bat speed and volume metrics make him a high-upside target in the nation’s capital.

Kyle Schwarber (+265) — Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies

Schwarber is a perpetual threat to go deep, boasting a relentless approach that punishes mistakes. Citizens Bank Park provides the perfect backdrop for his high-leverage swing. The Phillies’ home stadium ranks eighth in the league in scoring and surrenders a generous 2.61 home runs per contest. It is an undeniable tactical edge for left-handed power.

Facing Blue Jays starter José Soriano, Schwarber sits in a comfortable spot to take advantage of the short porch in right field. He routinely relies on his elite exit velocity to overcome pitch-to-contact specialists. His veteran presence and sheer power volume make this a standout opportunity.

Matt Olson (+347) — Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees

Olson brings his game-changing swing to Yankee Stadium, a park ballyhooed for its short porch and favorable conditions for power. The venue ranks 13th in the league with 9.04 runs per game and averages a solid 2.77 home runs per contest. Olson’s blue-collar work ethic and dedication to his craft continually translate to high-end volume metrics.

He squares off against Max Fried, who is notably suiting up for the Yankees in this unique 2026 contest. Olson’s ability to drive the ball to the pull side perfectly aligns with the stadium’s layout. Expect him to punish any mistakes left over the plate.

Corbin Carroll (+480) — Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

Carroll benefits from an exploitable pitching matchup in this critical, high-leverage divisional showdown. He brings a gritty, underdog mentality to the plate, constantly battling through tough counts. He faces Dodgers starter Roki Sasaki, who has proven vulnerable to the long ball. Sasaki has surrendered 20 home runs in just 99.0 innings for an elevated 1.818 HR/9 rate.

Taking the field at his home ballpark, Carroll has a clear path to capitalize on Sasaki’s mistakes. Chase Field’s favorable dimensions provide the perfect canvas for Carroll to add to the scoring. His relentless speed and sneaky power profile make him a highly valuable longshot.

Daniel Destler

Danny Destler is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A graduate of Marist University, Dan covers a wide range of sports topics, creating engaging and evergreen content for DFS enthusiasts and casual fans.