Best MLB Over/Under Bet Today (April 30): Guardians vs Red Sox

• The Guardians and Red Sox conclude their three-game set Sunday afternoon after splitting the first two meetings
• Boston won on an Alex Verdugo walkoff single in extra innings last night after blowing the lead in the ninth frame
• Check below for the best Guardians vs Red Sox over/under pick for today’s series finale

High drama was on display in the middle affair of this three-game series last night between the Cleveland Guardians (13-14, 9-6 away) and Boston Red Sox (14-14, 8-7 home). The latter won in extra innings to even the series at one game apiece.

First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET and rain could be a factor during the bout.

Guardians vs Red Sox Odds & Total

With Chris Sale on the mound, it’s no surprise to see the Red Sox listed as slight -125 home favorites here despite the veteran’s uncharacteristic struggles to start the year.

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Guardians vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers

Logan T. Allen vs Chris Sale

On Sale for a Bargain

Even at hitter-friendly Fenway Park, games don’t often attract a total as high as 9 when Chris Sale is involved. These are different times for the lefty, however.

The once-perennial Cy Young candidate enters his sixth assignment of the season with an ugly 8.22 ERA and five home runs allowed in just 23 innings. Furthermore, opposing hitters are raking at a .316 clip.

This is not the Chris Sale we’ve grown accustomed to — but it’s a version that isn’t as far off as some people may think.

Although he missed most of the last two years due to injuries, Sale’s higher-end average fastball velocity (94.4 mph) is restored and the strikeouts have still been apart of his game. Unfortunately, he’s dealt with bad luck, as evidenced by the absurd .403 batting average on balls put in play against him. No way that sustains.

There’s still enough here to harness and remain a relevant pitcher. Glimpses have been on display, like when Sale crafted a brilliant six-inning, 11-K outing on April 18.

In today’s assignment, the 34-year-old is drawing an opponent that can help uncork one of his stronger performances. Cleveland registered the third-lowest team OPS (.646) and fewest homers (26) off left-handed pitching last season. Those marks have only slightly improved thus far, something Sale can capitalize on.

Logan to a Tee

For the Guardians, they’re rolling with a southpaw starter as well. That would be one of their two Logan Allens — Logan T. Allen, to be specific, who is making his second career start as a Major Leaguer.

The first one came last Sunday, when he stifled the Marlins across six impressive innings. Allen even accumulated eight strikeouts en route to limiting the Fish to one run and just six baserunners total.

Meet Logan Allen.

The @CleGuardians' No. 8 prospect fans eight over six innings of one-run ball in his Major League debut. pic.twitter.com/aE7UapFMNo

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 23, 2023

Allen entered the campaign as one of the organization’s top prospects. Based on that stellar debut, it appears he has all the equipment to succeed from the onset.

As for this particular matchup, yes, the Red Sox can hit. But I am not afraid of a lineup that is wielding Rob Refsnyder as its No. 3 hitter posting a crooked number against a clearly-ascending youngster.

The over/under of 9 provides a little bit of room for error pertaining to both starters. Simple satisfactory work from each can get the job done, and seeing as how I don’t really envision major damage from the two offenses, the under makes sense.

Pick: UNDER 9 (-120)

2023 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 19-10, +7.66 units

Previous Result: Reds-Athletics Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit