Braves vs Brewers Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers
- The Milwaukee Brewers are home favorites over the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Friday afternoon
- The Braves send Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34) to the mound to face Corbin Burnes (11-5, 2.43)
- The odds and pitching matchups can be found below with a prediction
The Milwaukee Brewers — and National League ERA champ Corbin Burnes — will try to neutralize the Atlanta Braves’ potent offense in Game 1 of the National League Division Series at 4:37 pm ET, Friday, at American Family Field.
Atlanta took two of three on the road during a three-game set in May, while Milwaukee returned the favor down South — taking two of three in July and early August. Morton was a hard-luck loser in the August 1st contest, dropping a 2-1 decision after going six innings and allowing three hits, two earned runs, and no walks while striking out six. Meantime,
Burnes did not factor in the 9-5 Brewers victory July 30th after going only four innings and allowing nine hits, five earned runs. and a pair of walks while striking out six. Now, he and Milwaukee are home favorites Friday.
Braves vs Brewers Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | +125 | +1.5 (-170) | Over 7 (-115) |
| Milwaukee Brewers | -145 | -1.5 (+150) | Under 7 (-105) |
Odds as of October 6th at DraftKings.
Probable Pitchers
On the mound for Game 1, Atlanta’s Morton (14-6, 3.34) faces Burnes (11-5, 2.43).
This has the makings of a low-scoring affair. Over half (18) of Morton’s 33 starts this season have been of the quality variety, Atlanta, however, has only gone 17-16 in his rotation turns. But, the encouraging news for Braves fans is the veteran’s October experience. The 37-year-old owns a 3.38 ERA in 13 playoff appearances (12 starts). Last season, he went 5.1 innings in Game 7 of the ALCS against the Astros, helping the Rays win the American League pennant over his former club.
Morton vs Burnes Key Stats
| 14-6 | Record | 11-5 |
| 3.34 | ERA | 2.43 |
| 3.32 | xERA | 2.01 |
| 1.05 | WHIP | 0.94 |
| 3.72 | SO/W | 6.88 |
Prior to being lifted after tossing only 43 pitches in 2.2 innings of work Sunday against the Mets in an eventual 5-0 Atlanta victory, Morton spun five quality outings among his previous six starts — going 2-1 with a 2.46 ERA since August 31st.
Charlie Morton came up HUGE for the @Braves in the battle for the NL East. pic.twitter.com/iBV7bdQ0MU
— MLB (@MLB) September 29, 2021
Morton was 8.-3 with a 3.06 ERA in 15 road starts this season. In seven day game starts, he had a 1-2 record and 4.17 ERA.
As for Burnes, the 26-year-old became the first Milwaukee pitcher in franchise history to win the ERA title. 18 of his 28 starts have been quality ones and manager Milwaukee has sported a 19-9 record in his outings. He tossed seven quality outings among his final ten starts since August 1st — going 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA. That includes a two-inning outing Saturday, when he got roughed up a bit.
Justin Turner three-run home run off of Corbin Burnes in the first inning! pic.twitter.com/fo0nxoAFC3
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) October 3, 2021
Meanwhile, Burnes was 4-4 with a 2.85 ERA in 15 starts at home in 2021. He was 3-1 with a 1.53 ERA in ten day game starts.
Something’s Gotta Give
Three Braves infielders—Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley—all hit more than 30 home runs this year. And shortstop Dansby Swanson wasn’t far behind with 27 big flies, a franchise record for the position.
Corbin Burnes vs. Dansby Swanson (7/30):
SL-CUT-CB-SL-SNK
Clear plan with Swanson. Attack low and away. Mixes CUT & SNK with his breaking pitches to keep him off balance. Hung a CB that Dansby fouled off. SNK painted to strike him out. One of his better sequences that night. pic.twitter.com/d1U8QmfBls
— hashim (@___hash___) October 6, 2021
As for success coming in, Adam Duvall (8), Eddie Rosario (7) and Albies (7) have been crushing it since September 1st, going deep a combined 22 times. Morton will have to be very careful with this lineup.
The player to keep an eye here is Swanson. He’s gone 4-for-5 lifetime against Burnes with two home runs and five RBI. Austin Riley has also taken Burnes deep.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Braves Batters | Batting Average vs Corbin Burnes | Brewers Batters | Batting Average vs Charlie Morton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | .000 | Kolten Wong | .000 |
| Freddie Freeman | .333 | Willy Adames | .111 |
| Ozzie Albies | .500 | Christian Yelich | .400 |
| Austin Riley | .333 | Eduardo Escobar | .111 |
| Adam Duvall | .143 | Luis Urias | .500 |
| Eddie Rosario | .000 | Omar Narvaez | .273 |
| Dansby Swanson | .800 | Lorenzo Cain | .400 |
As for Milwaukee, Avisail Garcia and Luis Urias are the big bats on the Brewers with 29 and 23 home runs, respectively, Former MVP Christian Yelich remains dangerous despite a rough finish to the year that saw him record a .221 average and just one home run after Sept. 1.
As for Milwaukee probables with a history against Morton, only Narvaez and Adames have taken him deep but Yelich has gone 6-for-15 against him in his career.
Braves vs Brewers Pick
This one is a virtual coin flip. Morton’s postseason experience and Swanson’s lifetime numbers against Burnes have me fading the favorite. But, then I love Burnes’ record in day games this season along with the always-formidable Yelich.
The under might be a solid play, but it’s also on the low side. Atlanta could steal a game in Milwaukee — but it might be Game 2. I’ll go with the Brew Crew in a tight one.
The Pick: Brewers moneyline (-145)
Blair Johnson is a veteran journalist and seasoned sports content creator. He has been writing and producing content as long as he can remember, with such familiar names as CNN, NFL Media and Yahoo. Blair currently lives and works in the greater Los Angeles area.
