Cubs vs Pirates Player Props & Best Bets
By Ryan Potts in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Paul Skenes has a 2.77 ERA in eight lifetime starts against the Cubs
- The Cubs occupy the NL’s first wild-card slot
- Keep reading for my Cubs vs Pirates player prop picks
The Chicago Cubs (58-45) are continuing their National League Central series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (53-51) tonight after grinding out a tight 3-2 victory over their division rivals yesterday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM ET on July 25, 2026, at PNC Park.
From a betting perspective, the Pirates enter tonight’s clash as home favorites despite last night’s defeat. This is largely due to the presence of Paul Skenes on the mound. Skenes brings a 9-8 record into this start and will be looking to dominate a resilient Chicago lineup.
Meanwhile, the road underdog Cubs will counter with their own ace, Shota Imanaga (6-8). This sets the stage for a spectacular pitching duel between two high-upside arms. If you are building your betting card for tonight’s action, I have a comprehensive breakdown of the matchup ready for you.
Best Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Bets & Picks
I have narrowed down the betting board to identify a trio of standout player props. These offer excellent value based on recent performance metrics and situational trends. Let’s dive into the data to uncover my best edges for tonight’s game.
Pick: Ian Happ Over 0.5 Hits (-142 at BetMGM)
My first targeted prediction is backing Chicago’s veteran outfielder to simply record a base hit. While the matchup against an ace pitcher might seem daunting, Happ is locked in at the plate. He boasts a fantastic track record in this specific divisional clash.
Happ has collected 81 hits in 364 at-bats this season, and his underlying matchup data points heavily toward the over. He has gone over 0.5 hits in six of six games against Pittsburgh (100.0% success rate) and three of his last four games overall.
He currently holds a strong .333 batting average in 15 career at-bats against Skenes. With consistent success against both the opponent and the opposing starter, Happ is positioned perfectly to clear this total tonight.
Pick: Michael Busch Over 0.5 RBIs (+205 at Caesars)
Finding consistent run production can be a challenge on a game-to-game basis. However, Michael Busch has been a remarkably reliable RBI machine for the Cubs recently. On the season, Busch has tallied 54 runs batted in across his 378 at-bats.
Busch has gone over 0.5 RBIs in six of his last seven games (86.0% success rate). Given his torrid stretch of bringing runners home, this price tag offers massive plus-money value.
He also profiles as the biggest power threat against tonight’s opposing pitcher. Busch has already collected three extra-base hits in his 15 career at-bats against Skenes. When he connects, it often results in runs on the board.
Pick: Paul Skenes 7+ Strikeouts (55¢ at Kalshi)
For my final selection, I am pivoting to the mound and backing the Pirates’ electric starter. Skenes possesses a dominant 10.77 K/9 rate and an elite 3.43 ERA over his 115.1 innings pitched this season.
Skenes has proven he can comfortably rack up punchouts, especially when pitching in front of his home crowd. He has gone over 6.5 strikeouts in five of his last six home games (83.0% success rate).
Priced at 55 cents for “Yes” on Kalshi, Skenes offers a statistically backed edge. Relying on his high-velocity arsenal and elite swing-and-miss stuff, Skenes has everything he needs to clear this threshold tonight.
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Player Props & Betting Splits
If you are looking to jump into the individual performance markets for this matchup, there are plenty of appealing angles on the board. Let’s look at the MLB player props available for tonight’s game. I am utilizing Kalshi prices for select markets to find better payouts.
The home run market is headlined by Pittsburgh’s Esmerlyn Valdez, who carries the shortest odds to go deep at +271. Valdez boasts a massive .410 ISO and a .692 slugging percentage in 117 at-bats so far this season. You can Claim your bet365 bonus now to get involved with these home run prices.
If you are searching for total bases value, Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to be a reliable source of extra bases. With 44 extra-base hits on his ledger, Crow-Armstrong is priced at 45 cents on Kalshi to record 2+ total bases. Be sure to Start betting at Caesars now for traditional odds markets on the rest of the lineup.
This contest features a fantastic pitching duel between two high-upside starters. Skenes has been an electric strikeout artist for the Pirates, ringing up 138 batters across 115.1 innings. Facing a Chicago lineup that can swing and miss, Skenes has strong statistical backing here.
On the other side, Imanaga’s underlying numbers are rock solid with 109 strikeouts in 115 innings. Both pitchers have favorable odds on Kalshi to record at least 18 outs, meaning oddsmakers expect both to have a great chance of completing six innings. You can browse MLB pitching outs props for further context on these lines.
When analyzing these lines, situational trends are incredibly helpful. Here are a few critical MLB hit streaks and betting splits to monitor:
- Bryan Reynolds has exceeded 0.5 hits in 12 of his last 15 home games (80.0%) and five of his last six games against Chicago (83.0%).
- Marcell Ozuna has failed to hit a home run in 11 of his last 13 games at PNC Park (15.0% cover rate).
- Brandon Lowe has exceeded 0.5 hits in 22 of his last 29 games overall (76.0%).
- Michael Busch has failed to hit a home run in six straight games against Pittsburgh (0.0%).
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Batter vs Pitcher Stats
Historical batter-versus-pitcher data often uncovers hidden edges. Let’s look at the MLB batter vs pitcher stats for both lineups against tonight’s starting arms.
Cubs Batters vs Paul Skenes
*Pedro Ramirez has no prior career at-bats against Paul Skenes.
Pirates Batters vs Shota Imanaga
Looking at the career matchups, Ian Happ has found the most consistent success against Skenes, batting .333 across a meaningful 15 at-bat sample size. Meanwhile, Michael Busch offers the best power profile against the right-hander, collecting three extra-base hits despite a high strikeout total.
On the other side, Imanaga has utterly neutralized the top of Pittsburgh’s lineup. Bryan Reynolds is a dismal 1-for-14 (.071) in his career against the southpaw. Nick Gonzales remains hitless in 11 career at-bats, making the under on their hitting props heavily backed by historical data.
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
Both dugouts are currently dealing with a substantial number of absent players, forcing managers to rely heavily on organizational depth. Chicago is particularly banged up, while Pittsburgh is managing multiple active injuries.
The defining storyline of the Chicago injury report is the sheer devastation of their pitching staff. With key starters like Justin Steele sidelined, Imanaga will shoulder an even heavier burden to pitch deep into tonight’s game. If Pittsburgh can chase Imanaga early, their lineup could find plenty of late-inning scoring opportunities against a severely depleted bullpen.
Conversely, Pittsburgh is primarily dealing with injuries to their position players. The extended absence of Oneil Cruz robs them of a dynamic athlete, significantly limiting their offensive ceiling. The concurrent injuries to catchers Endy Rodríguez and Rafael Flores Jr leave Pittsburgh very thin behind the plate, which could impact game-calling.
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Odds & Ballpark Factors
Odds as of July 25, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET from Caesars Sportsbook.
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The Pirates enter tonight’s matchup as moderate home favorites, priced at -120 on the MLB odds board. If you are looking to back Pittsburgh on the runline, you can grab them to win by multiple runs at an appealing +170.
Looking at the opening lines, the moneyline has experienced minor movement, shifting away from Pittsburgh from an opening price of -130 to the current -120. The runline opened at -1.5 (+162) and now sits at +170, showing a bit less confidence in the home team. The game total opened at eight runs before dropping to 7.5 runs (juiced at -115 to the over, though).
Tonight’s matchup will unfold at PNC Park, a venue that has played surprisingly friendly to offensive production. Let’s examine the MLB park factors here:
- Runs Per Game: 10.63
- Hits Per Game: 17.75
- Extra-Base Hits Per Game: 6.33
- Home Runs Per Game: 2.37
PNC Park currently ranks as the sixth-highest-scoring environment in baseball. With an average of nearly 18 combined hits per game, the stadium provides a rising tide for baseline offensive props. Total base props and simple base hit props are slightly more appealing than chasing long-shot home run lines in this park.
Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, combine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
