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Darvish’s NL Cy Young Odds Improve to +275 as Bauer, deGrom, Gray Fade

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated Sep 2, 2020 · 7:40 PM PDT

Chicago Cubs' Yu Darvish's odds of the winning the National League Cy Young Award have improved while those of the New York Mets' Jacob deGrom and the Cincinnati Reds' Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray have faded. John Perrotto takes a view of the race and offers betting advice.
  • With the shortened season heading into the stretch run, the NL Cy Young Award odds are coming into focus
  • Chicago Cubs right-hander Yu Darvish has emerged as the favorite by winning six starts in a row
  • Left-hander Max Fried is 6-0 and has helped carry the Atlanta Braves to the top of the NL East

Oddsmakers are becoming increasingly bullish on Yu Darvish’s chances of winning the National League Cy Young Award.

The Chicago Cubs’ ace now has average odds of +275 and is the favorite with most sportsbooks. As recently as Aug. 24, that number was +500.

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds’ Trevor Bauer, who was favored on Aug. 24 at an average of +375, has faded to +550 as in the NL Cy Young odds. The following table shows the top-16 favorites at BetMGM, where bettors can still find Darvish at +350.

2020 National League Cy Young Odds

Player Odds at BetMGM
Yu Darvish (Cubs) +350
Trevor Bauer (Reds) +550
Jacob deGrom (Mets) +600
Aaron Nola (Phillies) +800
Sonny Gray (Reds) +1200
Brandon Woodruff (Brewers) +1500
Dinelson Lamet (Padres) +1800
Jack Flaherty (Cardinals) +2000
Patrick Corbin (Nationals) +2000
Kyle Hendricks (Cubs) +2000
Max Scherzer (Nationals) +2500
Walker Buehler (Dodgers) +2500
Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers) +2500
Luis Castillo (Reds) +2500
German Marquez (Rockies) +5000
Josh Hader (Brewers) +5000

Odds as of Sept. 2

Dominant Darvish

At 6-1, Darvish is tied for the NL lead in wins with Atlanta Braves lefty Max Fried. Darvish also tops the league with a 1.47 ERA, just ahead of Fried’s 1.60 mark.

The pitching triple crown is within Darvish’s reach as he is seventh in strikeouts with 52. The New York Mets’ Jacob deGrom tops the league with 58.

The advanced statistics back up Darvish’s traditional ones. His 312 ERA+ is the best in the NL and his FIP is 2.03.

Darvish had an uneven first start this season, giving up three runs in four innings in a loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. Since then, he has been unbeatable, winning six starts in a row. Most impressively, Darvish has allowed no runs in two of those outings and one run in the other four.

Furthermore, he has pitched at least six innings in each game during the streak and recorded at least seven strikeouts five of six times.

The signs of what was coming this year for the Japan native could be seen in the second half of last season. Though he was just 4-4 in 13 starts after the All-Star break, he had a sparkling 2.76 ERA.

Fried Is Braves’ Ace

Darvish’s biggest challenger is currently Fried.

The 26-year-old has followed up a breakout 2019 season by going 6-0 in eight starts. Fried has a 303 ERA+, 2.30 FIP, and is yet to allow a home run in 45 innings.

Fried has not dominated from a strikeout perspective, though he has whiffed 43. However, he has not allowed more than two runs in any of his outings.

No pitcher has carried a team’s rotation quite like Fried. The rest of the Braves starters have a 2-10 mark and an unsightly 6.99 ERA in 27 games for the first-place team in the NL East

Reds Duo Fading

Bauer and fellow Reds’ rotation-mate Sonny Gray have taken downward turns in their seasons.

Gray retired just two of the 10 batters he faced Tuesday night in a loss to the St. Louis Cardinals and was charged with six runs. He is 5-2 with a 3.19 ERA in eight starts.

Gray’s line brought joy to some New York Yankees’ fans.

Bauer is on a two-start losing streak in which he has allowed seven runs in 11 .2 innings. Prior to that, he had a 3-0 record in his first four starts, including two seven-inning shutouts, while giving up a mere two runs in 26.1 innings for a 0.68 ERA.

Don’t Count Out deGrom

Jacob deGrom’s odds have faded slightly from +500 to +600 since Aug. 24 but he should not be counted out in his attempt to win a third straight Cy Young.

In addition to his league-leading strikeout total, he has a 2-1 record and 1.76 ERA in seven starts and his 1.93 FIP is first in the NL.

Darvish has been the best pitcher in the NL so far in the pandemic-shortened season, but a little less than four weeks remain. If you are looking for a better value play, try Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola with average odds of +1200.

Nola is 4-2 with a 2.45 ERA in seven starts and right behind deGrom with 57 strikeouts. Furthermore, he has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his seven outings for a team on the rise in the NL East.

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