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Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets Odds, Picks & Predictions for Thursday’s Doubleheader

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 4, 2024 · 7:18 AM PDT

Detroit Tigers center fielder Parker Meadows against the New York Mets
Apr 1, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Detroit Tigers center fielder Parker Meadows (22) scores a run on a sacrifice fly by Detroit Tigers shortstop Javier Baez (28) during the tenth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Detroit Tigers and New York Mets meet in a doubleheader on Thursday, April 4
  • The Tigers are undefeated on the season while the Mets are still winless
  • See the Tigers vs Mets odds, picks, and predictions for Thursday afternoon

After back-to-back postponements, the Detroit Tigers (4-0, 4-0 away, 1-3 O/U) and New York Mets (0-4, 0-4 home, 1-3 O/U) will finally complete their three-game series at Citi Field at 12:10 pm ET on Thursday afternoon.

The Mets, who have still yet to win a game in 2024, are listed as slight favorites in both legs of today’s doubleheader.

Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets Odds Doubleheader

Game 1 Moneyline Runline Total
Detroit Tigers (Mize) +110 +1.5 (-190) O 7.5 (-105)
New York Mets (Houser) -130 -1.5 (+160) U 7.5 (-115)
Game 2 Moneyline Runline Total
Detroit Tigers (Manning) +105 -1.5 (+170) O 7.5 (-100)
New York Mets (Butto) -125 +1.5 (-210) U 7.5 (-120)

The Mets are listed as slight -130 favorites in game one of the doubleheader with the Tigers coming back as +110 road underdogs. Thursday’s MLB odds also list NYM as a -125 favorite in game two with Detroit at +105. The over/under for both games is sitting at 7.5.


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Detroit took the first game of the series on Monday, blanking the Mets 5-0 in extra innings after the teams played to a scoreless stalemate after nine innings.

YouTube video

The Mets were also swept by Milwaukee in their first series of the season, getting outscored 14-7 over three games. New York has scored one or fewer runs in three of four games this season. As a team, the Mets are slashing just .188/.250/.301 through four games with 31 strikeouts and just nine walks.

The Tigers, meanwhile, swept the White Sox in Chicago in their first series, winning all three games by a single run (1-0, 7-6, 3-2). Veteran catcher Carson Kelly leads the team with a .444 average, 1.278 OPS, and five RBI through four games.

DET vs NYM Starting Pitchers

Game one on Thursday will be the long-awaited return of 2018 first-overall pick Casey Mize. The 26-year-old made just two starts in 2022 and missed the entirety of the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He flashed his potential in his last full season in 2021, posting a 3.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 30 starts (150.1 innings).

Mize had no issues with velocity in spring training. He touched 97 in a start against the Orioles on March 9. His average four-seam velocity in 2021 was 94.1.

He has limited history against the Mets lineup. Only four New York players have faced Mize before, going 2-for-10 with one home run, two RBI, and a .200/.333/.700 slash line.

Longtime Brewer Adrian Houser gets the start for the Mets. Houser was up-and-down in his five seasons with the Brewers, twice posting an ERA of 3.72 or lower, and twice posting an ERA of 4.73 or higher. Last year was right in the middle of the road (4.21 ERA, 1.39 WHIP).

Like Mize, there is little history between Houser and the hitters he’ll be facing on Thursday. Only four Detroit batters have faced Houser before, and former Chicago Cub Javy Baez is the only one who’s faced him more than twice, going 2-for-10 with a double, a walk, and two Ks.

Casey Mize vs Adrian Houser

7-9 Record 8-5
3.71 ERA 4.12
4.92 xERA 4.21
1.14 WHIP 1.39
19.3% SO% 20.0%

 All of Mize’s stats come from the 2021 regular season. All of Houser’s stats from 2023.  

Houser has a strikeout totals of 4.5 in Thursday’s MLB player props with the under slightly favored. Mize’s total is 3.5 at DraftKings (-149o/+120u) and 4.5 (+138o/-179u) at FanDuel.

Tigers vs Mets Prediction

The Mets are out of rhythm this season, and it’s unlikely that a two-day layoff is going to help. Mize is a huge question mark, having only pitched 10 innings in the past two seasons, but the Detroit bullpen has been exceptional so far. The Tiger pen has a league-best 0.53 ERA and 2.73 FIP (second) through 17 innings over four games, already contributing to a pair of shutouts.

The Mets aren’t going to go 0-162, but I am willing to fade them again at plus-money on Thursday afternoon.

DET vs NYM pick: Tigers moneyline (+110) in game one of doubleheader

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB betting record: 6-0 (+5.24 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.


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