Dodgers Win Percentage O/U Is 62.5%, While FanGraphs Projects Just 59.7%; Will LAD Go Under?

Max Muncy throwing a ball
Max Muncy and the Los Angeles Dodgers have a 62.5% win percentage, the highest in the National League by a wide margin. Photo by Ian D'Andrea (Wiki Commons).
  • The defending National League-champion Los Angeles Dodgers had a 65.4% winning percentage last season
  • FanGraphs has the Dodgers pegged at 59.7% for 2020, but a number of sportsbooks have gone substantially higher
  • See the win percentages for all MLB teams and analysis on LAD’s over/under

Whenever the 2020 baseball season starts, the Los Angeles Dodgers will once again be the team to beat in the National League.

Winners of the NL pennant in two of the last three seasons, the Dodgers managed to win an NL-high 106 games last year for a 64.5 win percentage. The team came unstuck in the NLDS, but that hasn’t soured oddsmakers on their 2020 outlook.

The 2020 MLB win totals had them going close to 106 again this season. While win totals have now been replaced by win-percentage over/unders, the  projections for LAD remain extremely rosy.

2020 MLB Projected Win Percentages

National League Win %  Over/Under American League Win % Over/Under
Arizona Diamondbacks 51.5% Baltimore Orioles 35%
Atlanta Braves 56% Boston Red Sox 52%
Chicago Cubs 53% Chicago White Sox 52%
Cincinnati Reds 52% Cleveland Indians 52.5%
Colorado Rockies 45.5% Detroit Tigers 35%
Los Angeles Dodgers 62.5% Houston Astros 58.5%
Miami Marlins 40% Kansas City Royals 40.5%
Milwaukee Brewers 51.5% Los Angeles Angels 53%
New York Mets 53.5% Minnesota Twins 57%
Philadelphia Phillies 52.5% New York Yankees 62.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates 42.5% Oakland Athletics 55.5%
San Diego Padres 51.5% Seattle Mariners 41.5%
San Francisco Giants 42.5% Tampa Bay Rays 56%
St. Louis Cardinals 54% Texas Rangers 49%
Washington Nationals 56% Toronto Blue Jays 46.5%

Odds taken 04/21/20.

With seven consecutive division titles to their name, and never a team to stand pat, Los Angeles rolled the dice over the winter, seeing the likes of Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda and Hyun-jin Ryu move on, but happily bringing in Mookie Betts, the former American League most valuable player.

The Case For Going Over

In the process of winning seven straight NL West titles, the Dodgers have now made the playoffs seven consecutive times and trail just the New York Yankees (13 seasons) and the Atlanta Braves (14) in consecutive playoff appearances.

But they haven’t just crept over the finishing line during that spell. Since the streak began in 2013, the Dodgers have never won fewer than 91 games, and have averaged 95.9 wins per season, which is the equivalent of a 59.2% win percentage.

The team has really heated up in the last three seasons, coinciding with the emergence of stars such as reigning NL MVP Cody Bellinger and new ace Walker Buehler. The Dodgers’ average win total over that span has been 100.1 games per season, making for a win percentage of 62.1%.

And they are not about to get worse having added arguably the second-best player in baseball in Betts.

The Case For Going Under

Though the Dodgers are still the class of the NL West, the other teams in the division look set to put up a fight this season. Finishing 21 games back of the Dodgers in second place in 2019, the Arizona Diamondbacks decided to try and close the gap this winter.

They went out and signed former World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner to a five-year, $85-million contract while also beefing up the outfield by signing Kole Calhoun and trading for Starling Marte. Bookmakers aren’t giving much credence to any revival in the desert, with a win percentage O/U of 51.5%, which works out to 83.43 victories in a 162-game season, less than the 85 the D-Backs picked up last year.

After finishing 36 games back of the Dodgers in last place in the NL West, the San Diego Padres figure to be much improved too. While they will naturally expect more out of star Manny Machado than the career-low .256 batting average he had in 2019, they also made upgrades, adding outfielders Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham, along with bolstering the rotation and bullpen.

Whether those moves help them improve on their 43.2 win percentage from last year remains to be seen, but FanGraphs has them at 51.9% and one book has them at 51.5%, so there is a chance they could be eating into LA’s win total.

That said, whenever this inevitably-shortened season gets going, it’s going to be all hands on deck for every team. The Dodgers won’t be fooling around with putting fatigued pitchers on the IL or resting stars. Take the over.

 The Pick: Over 62.5% (-110)

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