Home Run Derby Picks & Predictions for 2026

• The Home Derby goes down tonight at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
• Philly slugger Kyle Schwarber is the favorite, but there’s plenty of value further down the board
• Keep reading for my favorite Home Run Derby picks and predictions for 2026, below

MLB’s Midsummer classic goes down this week in Philadelphia, beginning with everyone’s favorite event the Home Run Derby. Each of the past two long ball showcases have been won my first-time entrants, and I’ve found major value on another first-timer to win the crown tonight.

This evening’s festivities will be streamed exclusively on Netflix starting at 8pm ET across America, while Canadian viewers can also watch the action on Sportsnet.

Below, you’ll find my favorite Home Run Derby picks and predictions for 2026, plus the analysis behind each selection.

Home Run Derby Odds for 2026

To no one’s surprise Philadelphia’s own Kyle Schwarber enters as the favorite tonight with +285 odds to win it all. He’s followed by last year’s runner-up Junior Caminero from the Rays, who’s attracting the bulk of the money wagered on this showcase as of the time of writing.

A little further down the board, we find my favorite longshot pick Ben Rice of the Yankees, who comes in sporting +900 odds at traditional sportsbooks to blast the most dingers.

Home Run Derby Picks for 2026

• Ben Rice (9¢) at Kalshi

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If choosing from the top of the board, I’d take Schwarber over Caminero and I wouldn’t think twice about it. Yes, Schwarber has never won a Derby, but his power numbers speak for themselves. He leads all of MLB with 32 home runs already, after belting 56 a season ago, and he’s an MLB MVP odds candidate. His power prowess is legendary, and he boasts a four-homer game and plenty of postseason bombs on his resume from the previous 12 months alone.

Plus, the event is in his own Ball Park, and it’s no secret how big of an advantage power hitters have at Citizens Bank Park, more on that below.

While Schwarber is enticing, I’m swinging for the fences – literally, with my Rice selection. The Yankees slugger is a star in the making and he has all the ingredients to turn Citizens Bank Park into his own personal home run playground. You can grab him at +900 at commercial books, but he’s trading at 9-cents over at Kalshi, which is the equivalent to a much sweeter +1011 price tag. Don’t forget to use the Kalshi referral code to score a bonus to bet on MLB.

Rice enters this week as one of the hottest power hitters in baseball, after slugging 7 home runs over the past two weeks. He owns the highest ISO rate of any of tonight’s contestants, and trails only Schwarber and Munetaka Murakami in barrel rate and average exit velocity.

Also working in his favor, is his near 50% pull rate, which is also among the highest in tonight’s group. He makes a living launching balls into the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium, and Citizens Bank Park is even more favorable to left-handed bats.

Philly’s ball park yields 32% more home runs to left-handed hitters than any other stadium in baseball per the MLB park factors. Contrast that with batters from the right side, which Citizens Bank Park allows dingers to at a 1% rate lower than the league average.

Rice will have his father Dan pitching for him tonight and the MLB weather forecast is calling for 10 mile per hour winds blowing out to right-center field, giving lefties another leg up on the competition.

Home Run Derby Predictions for 2026

• Jac Caglianone (+800 at DraftKings)

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Rice isn’t the only longshot left-handed bat I’m targeting tonight, as you can also make the case for the Royals Jac Caglianone at +800. Like Rice, he’s also a first-time participant looking to follow in the footsteps of Teoscar Hernandez and Cal Raleigh.

Caglianone has already blasted 15 dingers, more than twice his career-high, including nine in the month of June. He ranks top-12 in exit velocity and hard hit percentage this season, and has one of the highest no-doubter home run rates in the entire league.