Marlins vs Padres Odds, Betting Lines, and Probable Pitchers
- The San Diego Padres are -240 favorites over the visiting Miami Marlins on Tuesday (August 10th, 10:10 pm ET)
- Reliever Craig Stammen (0-0, 2.71 ERA) will make his second start of the season for the Padres, while the Marlins will give the ball to Braxton Garrett (1-1, 3.58 ERA)
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
The final game on Tuesday’s MLB slate features the Marlins in San Diego to take on the Padres. Miami is currently occupying its familiar position at the bottom of the NL East division, while San Diego has a strong grip on the second Wild Card spot.
Marlins vs Padres Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | +195 | +1.5 (-115) | O 8.5 (+100) |
| San Diego Padres | -240 | -1.5 (-105) | U 8.5 (-120) |
Odds as of August 9th at DraftKings.
To absolutely no one’s surprise, it’s the Padres who opened up as a sizeable home favorite. San Diego entered this week tied for the most home wins (38) in all of baseball, and own the third highest run differential (+102) in the NL.
The Marlins on the other hand, have lost 16 of their 24 games since the All-Star break, and are dealing with injuries to three of their top five starters.
First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 pm ET, and as usual in San Diego the forecast calls for sunshine and 9 mph winds.
Probable Pitchers
As a result of all their depleted rotation, Miami will give the ball to Braxton Garrett. The left-hander has been up and down between the big club and AAA Jacksonville this season, posting mixed results. He’s 1-1 in the big leagues over five starts, failing to make it out of the fifth inning in three of those outings. Down on the farm, he’s posted a 4-3 mark in 11 starts, but no matter where’s he’s pitched, he’s struggled with his control.
Today is Braxton Garrett's 5th major league call-up of the season, and also his 24th birthday! Live it up, lefty 🥳 pic.twitter.com/oFPnlhXNuW
— Fish On First Spaces (@MarlinsSpaces) August 5, 2021
He’s surrendered 31 walks in just over 80 combined innings, and will be in tough against a San Diego offense that ranks fourth in the NL in runs, and sixth in slugging and OPS. The Padres are averaging over six runs per game over their past seven, despite missing NL MVP favorite Fernando Tatis since July 30th due to a shoulder injury.
Garrett vs Stammen
| 1-1 | Record | 0-0 |
| 3.58 | ERA | 2.71 |
| 1.59 | WHIP | 1.03 |
| .304 | OBA | .232 |
| 2.0 | SO/W Ratio | 7.0 |
San Diego is also down a starter thanks to Chris Paddack’s oblique issue, meaning Tuesday will be a bullpen game for them. Reliever Craig Stammen will get the ball first, and manager Jayce Tingler is hoping to work him up to four or five innings over the next couple weeks in Paddack’s absence. Tinger said there will be no pitch count for Stammen versus Miami, and that he’ll continue to throw until he no longer feels good.
Jayce Tingler was asked if he's looking to build Craig Stammen up to 4 or 5 innings in response to where Chris Paddack is right now and the need to potentially move Stammen into a starting rotation spot: pic.twitter.com/1Wzmo6IvmF
— 97.3 The Fan (@973TheFanSD) August 9, 2021
The 37-year-old has 39 career starts on his resume, and hasn’t allowed an earned run in two innings of work against Miami this season. He’s held the Marlins to a single hit, and sports a tidy 2.71 ERA (the second lowest of his career with a minimum of 20 appearances) and a 1.03 WHIP in 2021.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Marlins Batters | Batting Average vs Stammen | Padres Batters | Batting Average vs Garrett |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | .000 | Jake Cronenworth | .000 |
| Jorge Alfaro | .000 | Manny Machado | .000 |
| Brian Anderson | .500 | Adam Frazier | .000 |
| Lewis Brinson | .000 | Tommy Pham | .000 |
| Braxton Garrett | .000 | Trent Grisham | .500 |
| Joe Panik | .182 | Will Meyers | .000 |
| Miguel Rojas | .400 | Austin Nola | .000 |
He’s held four of his past five opponents scoreless, and shouldn’t face too much resistance from Miami’s anemic offense. The Marlins rank 27th in runs scored and slugging, and have the second lowest OPS of any NL club. In addition to dealing with injuries to their pitching staff, Miami is down two regulars in its lineup. Starting outfielder Jesus Sanchez is on the injured list, as is starting second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr, who ranks second on the team in runs and home runs, and fourth in WAR.
Marlins vs Padres Pick
Even if Stammen only lasts a few innings, it’s not like the Marlins will be looking forward to facing San Diego’s bullpen. That unit ranks first in all of baseball in ERA, and tops in the NL in WAR and xFIP.
Keep grinding ⚙️ #PadresWin #HungryForMore pic.twitter.com/skkZJ3aEgg
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) August 8, 2021
Anyway you slice it, everything points to the Padres handling the Marlins comfortably on Tuesday, just like they did on Monday. Their potent offense should thrive versus Garrett, while they have more than enough quality arms to neutralize the struggling Miami bats. Quite frankly, the Padres runline odds should be much shorter.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (-105)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
