MLB Player Prop Picks for Thursday, Aug. 17, Including Juan Soto Hits & Corbin Burnes Earned Runs

• Today’s MLB schedule features just six games
• A nightcap between the division-leading Brewers and Dodgers highlights the slate
• Below, see my favorite MLB player-prop picks on Thursday, August 17, 2023

Bettors will be hard-pressed to find a lighter day during the MLB regular season than Thursday’s six-game slate. But a number of big-name pitchers are on the bump, including the favorite in the NL Cy Young odds, Zac Gallen.

Today’s player-prop picks will start with Gallen and his Arizona Diamondbacks visiting the San Diego Padres. All wagers are one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

 Best MLB Player Props Today (Thursday, Aug. 17)

Two of Thursday’s player props come in at plus-money, starting with perennial MVP candidate Juan Soto to have another off night.

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Pick #1: Juan Soto Under 0.5 Hits (+140) in Diamondbacks vs Padres

This is mostly a matchup play. Arizona starter Gallen has dominated Soto over his career. In 16 career at-bats, Soto is batting just .188 against Gallen (three hits) with four strikeouts. Soto is also struggling at the plate, generally, though. His average has dropped 12 points in the past two weeks and he broke a there-game hitless streak with a single in yesterday’s 5-2 win over Baltimore.

While familiarity in pitcher/batter relationships tends to favor hitters as time goes by, recent history also sides with Gallen here. After a four-start speedbump in which the 28-year-old ace gave up at least three runs and saw his ERA rise from 3.17 to 3.41, Gallen has righted the ship over his past two starts. The most-recent of which was four-hit, six-inning shutout of these same Padres just five days ago.

Pick: Soto under 0.5 hits (+140)

Pick #2: Zerpa Under 2.5 Strikeouts in Mariners vs Royals

Let’s put this bluntly: if Angel Zerpa records three strikeouts today it will be the first time this year that the 23-year-old has reached that number. Zerpa is sporting an atrocious 7.71 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, albeit in just four appearances. Last time out, he was tagged for four runs on five hits in four innings against the Cardinals, striking out just two of the 19 batters he faced.

Yes, Zerpa and the Royals have the enviable task of facing a Seattle lineup that strikeouts at the second-highest rate in the majors (26% K rate). But Zerpa has only whiffed three batters in total across 9.1 innings. Last year, he only struck out three batters in 11 innings of work. Indeed, the only time Zerpa has ever recorded three strikeouts in a single game was back in his 2021 MLB debut when he fanned four against Cleveland.

KC’s bullpen wasn’t too heavily taxed yesterday, with four relievers combining to cover four innings in a 6-5 loss. In the (fairly likely) event that Zerpa gets into trouble early, manager Matt Quatraro will have plenty of bullpen resources to lean on.

At plus-money, bettors are getting solid value on the under.

Pick: Zerpa under 2.5 Ks (+105)

Pick #3: Burnes Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-140) in Brewers vs Dodgers

On the whole, Corbin Burnes has been on an absolute tear the past six weeks. He entered July with an ERA that was, shockingly, over four (4.10). Since that time, he has lowered it by half a run to 3.60 over the span of eight starts. From July 1 to August 5, he went on a run of seven straight starts in which he surrendered two runs or fewer. That streak was only broken in his most-recent start, a disappointing eight-hit, five-run outing against the White Sox.

This season has continued a long-standing trend for Burnes of pitching better away from home (not shocking given the bandbox his Brewers call home). Burnes has a career 3.55 ERA in Milwaukee and 3.03 ERA elsewhere. This season, his splits are 3.92 at home and 3.35 away.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AHz-EBWTho

The Dodgers’ lineup has hit Burnes better than most teams, but in 66 total at-bats, they are still only slashing .242/.333/.348 with just one homer courtesy Jason Heyward.

This price tag on the under (-140) is not terribly enticing, but it still only required a 59% implied probability to have positive expected value.

Pick: Burnes under 2.5 earned runs (-140)

MLB betting record 2023: 2-5-1 (-2.02 units)