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New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Odds, Picks & Predictions for June 21

Adam Spencer

by Adam Spencer in MLB Baseball

Updated Jun 21, 2024 · 7:26 AM PDT

Dansby Swanson trots around the bases after hitting a home run against the San Francisco Giants.
Jun 19, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson (7) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the San Francisco Giants during the fourth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
  • The New York Mets (35-38) visit the Chicago Cubs (36-39) for the first game of a 3-game weekend series between a pair of 4th-place teams.
  • Shota Imanaga (7-1, 1.89 ERA) gets the start for the Cubs against José Quintana (2-5, 4.98 ERA) of the Mets.
  • Check out the section below for our top picks from this afternoon’s MLB action.

It’s time for some afternoon baseball at Wrigley Field as the Cubs and Mets square off in a matinee showcase. Shota Imanaga will try to stymie the Mets, who are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Former Cub José Quintana gets the start for New York. The game is scheduled to begin at 2:20 p.m. ET and can be seen on the MLB Network.

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Picks

  • Cubs -1.5 (+135)
  • Dansby Swanson 2+ total bases (+160)

With Shota Imanaga on the mound, I expect the Cubs to dominate this game. Imanaga has been one of the best pitchers in the National League this year and has a microscopic 1.89 ERA. Even with the Mets riding high over their last 10 games, I like the Cubs in this one. Over at bet365, you can find the Cubs to win by 2+ runs for +135 odds. That’s pretty good value considering the disparity in the starting pitchers.

I also like Dansby Swanson to have a strong showing this afternoon at home. He has hit Quintana well in his career, going 3-for-8 with a pair of doubles. I expect him to be at his best again today. He homered in each of his last 2 games (Tuesday and Wednesday against the Giants), so he’s swinging a hot bat right now. Quintana won’t be able to do much to slow him down. Swanson to record 2+ total bases is at +160 on bet365.

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New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
New York Mets +1.5 (-160) +125 O 8.0 (-120)
Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+135) -150 U 8.0 (+100)

Odds via bet365 as of June 21. Sign up for bet365 today using promo code SBDXLM and you’ll score a first-bet safety net of up to $1,000 or $150 in bonus bets when you place an initial wager of at least $5. 

As detailed above, I love the Cubs spread of -1.5 at +135 odds. I think this will be a lopsided win for Chicago behind ace Shota Imanaga. If you think the Mets will win, there’s value to pick New York on the moneyline at +125 odds. The Cubs are -150 to win. The run total is set at over/under 8.0, with -120 odds on the over and +100 odds on the under.

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Starting Pitchers

José Quintana VS Shota Imanaga
2-5 Record 7-1
4.98 ERA 1.89
16.0% SO% 25.8%

As I discussed at the top, this is quite the disparity between starting pitchers. Imanaga has been great so far in 2024. Quintana … not so much. Quintana’s ERA is more than 3 full runs per 9 innings higher than Imanaga’s.

Imanaga does a good job of keeping free passes to a minimum. He’s struck out 78 batters and walked only 11 in 76 innings of work so far in 2024. That’s a 7-to-1 strikeouts-to-walks ratio. Meanwhile, Quintana has struck out 50 and walked 25 over 72.1 innings.

When you put extra runners on base and don’t have great swing-and-miss stuff, it’s a recipe for disaster, as Quintana’s robust ERA shows. Meanwhile, Imanaga does sometimes allow home runs (he’s given up 7 this year), but he limits the damage by not having many extra runners on base.

Quintana pitched for the Cubs from 2017 to 2020, so maybe he can find some magic against his old team. He’s also coming off his best outing of the year, allowing only 1 run and striking out 6 in 6 innings of work against the Padres on June 15.

He’s going to need to be at his best again to give the Mets a chance against Imanaga. See who gets the job done at 2:20 p.m. ET today on the MLB Network.

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