Upcoming Match-ups

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Predictions, Picks & Starting Pitchers (May 21)

Adam Spencer

by Adam Spencer in MLB Baseball

Updated May 20, 2024 · 7:53 PM PDT

May 13, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets designated hitter JD Martinez (28) runs out a double against the Philadelphia Phillies during the fifth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Cleveland Guardians (31-17) host the New York Mets (21-26) after winning the series opener 3-1 on Monday night
  • Adrian Houser (0-3, 7.44 ERA) takes the mound for the Mets against Carlos Carrasco (2-4, 5.16 ERA) of the Guardians
  • See the picks for Tuesday night’s showdown below

The Cleveland Guardians host the New York Mets in interleague action tonight at 6:10 p.m. ET. It’s the first MLB game on the slate for Tuesday, featuring a Cleveland squad that has the second-most wins in the American League, behind only the Yankees.

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Picks

  • Over 9.0 runs
  • JD Martinez over 1.5 total bases

You saw the ERAs for the two starting pitchers above. It’s not pretty. Houser has not been good for the Mets since coming over from the Brewers this offseason. However, in May, he’s lowered his ERA nearly a full run, going from an abysmal 8.37 ERA to a slightly less abysmal 7.44. He’s been used out of the bullpen in his last couple of outings, though.

Now that he’s back in the starting lineup, and going against Carrasco, who has an ERA north of 5.00, I expect there to be plenty of runs scored. Thus, I’m taking the over on 9 runs scored. You can find the over at -110 over at bet365.

JD Martinez went 1-for-4 with a double off Ben Lively on Monday night. However, he’s crushed Carlos Carrasco during his career. He is 10-for-27 with 2 doubles, 2 home runs and 9 RBI against him lifetime. That’s solid. I expect the Mets to put Martinez in the middle of the lineup on Tuesday night and let him go to work.

If you can find odds for Martinez over 1.5 total bases at +120 or better, jump on it.

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New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
New York Mets +1.5 (-210) -110 O 9.0 (-110)
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+175) -110 U 9.0 (-110)

Odds via bet365 as of May 21. Use our bet365 bonus code SBDXLM to secure $150 in bonus bets when you place an initial wager of $5 or more today.

On paper, these two teams don’t seem to be that evenly matched. But the even moneyline odds are likely due to the suspect starting pitchers on both sides. The over/under is set at 9.0 runs, with -110 odds on both sides there, too. To pick Cleveland to win by 2+ runs has some value, as that’s currently at +175 on bet365. Carrasco does have an ERA more than 2 runs per 9 innings lower than Houser’s so there could be some money coming in on that spread.

Let’s dive further into the starting pitchers below.

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Starting Pitchers

Adrian Houser VS Carlos Carrasco
0-3 Record 2-4
7.44 ERA 5.16
10.8% SO% 17.2%

Cleveland’s offense has been elite this year, posting 228 runs thus far. That’s good for second in the American League, behind only the Yankees. The Guardians’ +59 run differential is also second to the Yankees in the AL.

Basically, this is a really difficult matchup for Houser. Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been carrying Cleveland with the bats. If Houser is going to have success, he’s going to have to limit the damage that duo is able to do.

For the Mets, the offense has score 199 runs. That hasn’t been the biggest problem for New York. Carrasco is going to have his hands full with Martinez, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor and the Mets’ offense. Having spent the past 3 years with the Mets, he’ll be familiar with those guys, but with both pitchers having low strikeout rates, don’t expect many swings and misses from hitters.

It’s supposed to be a beautiful night in Cleveland, so expect the bats to come alive early and often in this intriguing battle between opponents who don’t see each other very often.

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